For the Orlando retail market, which relies heavily on Central Florida’s $75 billion tourism industry, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic has been twofold. Not only has the local consumer base begun relying more heavily on online shopping and home-cooked meals, but the number of out-of-state and international visitors who typically travel to Central Florida for its renowned theme parks and attractions has plummeted. Statewide, Florida’s tourism industry suffered an estimated 60.5 percent drop in visitors during the year’s second quarter, with international travel down more than 90 percent, according to Visit Florida. Submarkets built around Walt Disney World, the Orange County Convention Center and Universal Orlando, such as International Drive, the U.S. Highway 192 Corridor and Celebration, have taken an especially hard hit. Many restaurants designed around a sit-down experience will not recover. Although creative solutions are in action, sidewalk seating and ghost kitchens can only generate so much revenue to recover restaurants’ already razor-thin margins. But out of the slump have come opportunities for some retailers to shine, whether they’ve adapted their business model or already happened to have pandemic-resistant infrastructure in place. Further, as the winners and losers of COVID-19-era retail become clear, retailers and restaurants that …
Economic health at the start of 2020 set a foundation for Orlando’s office market that remains in a good position despite headwinds caused by the global COVID-19 pandemic. Nationally, the United States saw its longest-running period of economic growth before non-essential business was paused. Even with the slowdown in tourism, Orlando continues to see an uptick in local economy-boosting sectors, including defense and technology. Additionally, an increasing number of companies and individuals in the Northeast have eyes on Florida to escape denser urban markets and high state and local taxes, which bodes well for the Central Florida region. Fundamentals stay firm The pandemic significantly curbed a lot of new office leasing activity in Orlando in 2020. However, rents have not experienced a measurable decline to date. As of the second quarter, the total average rental rate was $24.92 full-service. Landlords are generally being patient and are not lowering rents or offering above-market concessions when negotiating new deals. Asking rents will likely stay flat for the coming months until the broader economy kickstarts again or the anticipated new sublease space hits the market and compels landlords to be more competitive. Total net office absorption for the Orlando area posted a negative …
The Miami-Dade industrial market saw a prolific year in 2019, followed by a healthy, yet slower first quarter in 2020. PortMiami’s record-shattering fiscal year 2019, with cargo operations posting 1.1 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) and cruise passengers totaling a world’s best 6.8 million passenger total, correlated with the robust warehouse and distribution demand the market experienced throughout 2019. There was a 9 percent uptick in South Florida industrial investment sales, and developers delivered 5.6 million square feet of product to Miami-Dade County. Industrial completions in 2019 exceeded the all-time high set in 2018, and the local inventory expanded by nearly 3 percent. In first-quarter 2020, as the coronavirus pandemic began to unfold and cause widespread global challenges, the flow of cargo continued to meet essential needs from medical supplies to food, while all cruise lines voluntarily ceased sailings. In addition, after a strong start to the year, COVID-19 caused construction to pause and dimmed demand from space users that service hard-hit industries such as tourism and brick-and-mortar retail. The unprecedented boost in e-commerce, grocery, and medical supply distribution currently drives the industrial sector. Leasing remains solid despite roadblocks Overall industrial vacancy in Miami-Dade is at 4.33 percent, up from …
The surge of momentum happening in Miami’s office market is undeniable with the metro emerging as a new international hub for startups and regional companies alike. Fueled by a multilingual workforce and easy access to Latin America and the Caribbean, Miami’s status as an international gateway is drawing the attention of office landlords and investors from around the country, as well as a wide variety of office users. Investors like Starwood Capital, Appaloosa Management and Icahn Enterprises are leaving their traditional New York and New Jersey locations to come to Florida, one of just seven states that do not impose state income tax. Paired with favorable weather and a high quality of life, Miami is a desirable destination for businesses and its workforce. Entrepreneurial activity in the region is also helping to fuel the office market, as the number of foreign business owners who choose to relocate to Miami and set up shop continues to grow. Hot submarkets Miami’s Wynwood neighborhood has quickly earned the reputation as one of the city’s up-and-coming places to be. The district is poised to become the next 24/7 hotspot thanks to a healthy pipeline of residential development underway that will support office growth in …
Miami continues to be a top-ranked commercial real estate market in the Southeast United States. As the economy gears up to enter its longest expansion period in U.S. history, Miami has shown more resiliency than other South Florida markets, recording steady gains in absorption, robust leasing activity and modest rent growth. Economic fundamentals remain strong as job growth continues to fuel Miami’s office market with the unemployment rate trending down to 3.2 percent. Miami’s unemployment rate reached the lowest point in its history, falling to 3 percent in April 2019. The fundamentals in economic growth continue to support corporate expansion in nearly every industry as well as new-to-market growth from other U.S. markets and globally. While in the past, most of Miami’s growth came from Latin America, 60 percent of new-to-market growth now comes from Europe, with Spain being a frontrunner. High demand amid deliveries Miami-Dade County’s overall office vacancy rate rose slightly by 1 percent in the past 12 months, during which time 937,919 square feet of new office space was delivered to the market. More than 500,000 square feet was absorbed during that time. Because of the strong absorption, the vacancy rate was impacted only slightly, bringing it …
The end of the second quarter of 2019 marked 120 consecutive months of U.S. economic growth, the longest on record. The steady climb in investment sales over the past few years has been fueled by record amounts of institutional capital and private equity, and office-using employment has reached an all-time high. By the end of March of this year, Florida’s private sector businesses had created over 208,000 jobs over the trailing 12-month period, and Orlando had reached 48 straight months as the state’s top location for job growth. Additionally, the U.S. Census Bureau’s latest figures indicate that three of the top 10 fastest growing cities in Florida are in the Orlando area (Kissimmee, St. Cloud and the city of Orlando itself). Altogether, there is $3.6 billion in multifamily construction underway or planned in metro Orlando, and all of this growth is fueling the need for improved transportation and logistics networks, as well as the corresponding commercial development taking place throughout the market. Finally, world-famous as a vacation destination, Orlando’s $70 billion tourism and travel industry continues to thrive with 75 million visitors during 2018 alone. Urban core grows Downtown Orlando’s renaissance continues, with a total of $2 billion in new …
The Orlando multifamily market may have an appearance of being oversupplied and on shaky ground, but it is actually thriving and has a long runway for growth ahead. The Orlando MSA has an inventory of approximately 165,000 rental units and about 10,000 units under construction. While that new supply approaches historical high-water marks, the lack of inventory of entry-level, single-family homes and the complexion of the household formation leads us to the conclusion that we are undersupplied in the multifamily space. That being said, within the overall numbers there is likely an oversupply of Class A inventory and an undersupply of workforce housing. Vacancies are hovering in the 6 percent range and rent growth has slowed to around 3 percent after having stronger years. The undersupply of workforce housing is being exacerbated by the value-add business model being employed on most of the Class B and C buyers over the last five years, catapulting the average rents and straining the ability of the working-class to keep rent as a percentage of income at a healthy level. Overall, single-family homebuilding is at a 10-year high, but still well below the pre-recession days. Permits are also soaring, but the makeup of the …
Orlando’s retail market happens to be a really good representation of the national market. By every metric, Orlando is doing well as both rental rates and occupancy rates have been increasing. Orlando is one of the fastest growing cities in America, adding roughly 1,000 new residents each week. Tourism numbers continue to climb with 75 million visitors in 2018, according to Visit Florida. Downtown is experiencing an economic resurgence with a new collegiate campus (more on this later). As a result of the city’s overall growth, Orlando is also experiencing suburban growth with noteworthy developments such as Lake Nona. However, it can be overwhelming in the sense that the industry and consumer demands continue to evolve. There are all kinds of new and different concepts so to be a player in today’s dynamic market, retailers have to be innovative. While there is news of retailers shrinking in size or filing bankruptcy, it is important to keep up with the evolving market and create retail concepts that are relevant to today’s consumer’s demands. One consumer demand is retail tourism, which is a hotspot for retail development, especially with Disney Springs, the I-Drive corridor and theme parks in the surrounding area. What …
As job growth supports a healthy economy in Southwest Florida, the region is experiencing major population growth, causing a surge in new Class A multifamily construction. The number of new construction Class A units in Southwest Florida has increased by nearly 150 percent year-over-year. In first-quarter 2018, there were 257 Class A units completed, and in first-quarter 2019, that number rose to 622. With this increased supply of Class A properties, there is now more demand in Class B properties among renters, and ultimately from investors. Class B properties tend to have more affordable rental rates, and investors have now noticed the potential for higher investment returns. Illustrating this demand, in the first quarter of 2018 in Southwest Florida, there were 17 Class B properties sold that totaled nearly $39 million. In first-quarter 2019, the sale volume increased to $68 million with nine properties sold. Also, investors were willing to pay more for these assets if they had a value-add component With Class B vacancies being tight at 4.6 percent, investors are making interior and exterior improvements to properties and gradually raising rental rates to increase their returns. For example, a value-add Class B multifamily property in Fort Myers recently …
While there are mass retail closings around the country, in Miami, there is typically someone waiting on space to become available. Think about it: In Miami, there is actually a shortage of retail space. Uber luxury markets in Miami are performing extremely well with Bal Harbour Shops (owned by Whitman Family Development) being one of the top retail complexes in the country, followed closely by Dadeland Mall and Aventura Mall. These malls are continuously reinvented and expanded, adding various entertainment and diverse dining options to their multi-level retail outlets. The Dolphin Mall, a 1.4 million-square-foot mixed-used complex owned by Taubman Cos., continues to be its No. 1 performing mall in the country, with over 240 retail shops, dining and entertainment venues to choose from including Bass Pro Shops Outdoor World, Cobb Dolphin 19 Cinema, The Cheesecake Factory, Dave and Buster’s, Texas de Brazil, Bloomingdales The Outlet Store, Neiman Marcus Last Call and Saks Fifth Avenue OFF 5th. Miami is cruising There are several factors driving this phenomenon. First, Miami International Airport traffic is setting month-over-month and year-over-year records, according to the Greater Miami Convention and Visitors Bureau. Traffic in February 2019 was 5.7 percent higher compared to February 2018. Cruise …