With Atlanta’s economy more robust than ever, demand for multifamily housing remains high, driving rent growth and investor interest throughout the market. Since the last cycle — when a reliance on construction hit hard — the city has transformed its economy by building up its IT, healthcare and automotive sectors, among others. The results of strong job growth and the diversification of employment are evident market-wide. In particular, Buckhead and Midtown have seen a substantial increase in multifamily supply over the last three to five years, as spillover activity in East Atlanta and West Midtown will continue. And the rise of two multibillion-dollar sports stadiums (Mercedes-Benz Stadium and SunTrust Park) in the same year — a first for the city — continues to draw national and international attention to intown and metro submarkets. Urban Goes Suburban A seemingly insatiable demand for urban live-work-play settings has inspired developers to replicate the highly-amenitized and high-rent success in the suburbs. Alpharetta’s Avalon was a game changer, spurring destinations in John’s Creek, Gwinnett County’s Peachtree Corners and the mixed-use boon around SunTrust Park in Cobb County. So far, development activity has been steady in the northern submarkets, with little activity on Atlanta’s south side. …
Although so-called “creative office space” is for now a tiny slice of the overall supply in Atlanta, it represents the most significant change in the use of office space in generations. Tenants and landlords have only begun to use creative design principles to push rents past levels previously thought unreachable, while increasing worker productivity and satisfaction. Trends in this sector will define the American workplace for decades. The largest users of creative office space — also commonly referred to as loft office space — today are in the TAMI sector (tech, advertising, media and information), but law practices, engineering firms and others are also embracing the open office concept. In Atlanta, there is 3 million square feet of creative office space, which is only 1.2 percent of the metro area’s total inventory. But the vacancy rate for creative spaces is just 8.3 percent and the gross asking price is $29.90 per square foot, both considerably outperforming the traditional office arena. Since 2013 the asking rate for traditional office space in Atlanta has grown 17.2 percent. For creative space the asking rate has shot up 62.5 percent. The top end asking rate for creative spaces is more than $6.50 higher than …
A decade ago, the Atlanta retail market was a house of cards. It was clear to see this if you were in the industry at the time, and possibly even if you weren’t. Based on the intense overbuilding that had taken place, it wouldn’t have taken a worldwide economic meltdown to wreck it, though that didn’t help. Literally hundreds of unanchored retail centers had cropped up all over suburbia, fitting directly into everything that people consider to be negative about shopping centers. The formula for developers was to scrape every tree from a piece of land, cover it with asphalt and an inexpensively constructed building, then fill it with whatever tenants they could find. The result was largely a glut of properties with poor intrinsic values: mid-block sites, odd shaped layouts, challenging access, uninspired, non-credit tenants with high rents. This would, of course, turn out to be unsustainable. To be fair, not every property was developed in this fashion. Atlanta was and still is home to many excellent retail developers that know how to create amazing projects. But many look back to the 2000s in Atlanta as a time of cookie cutter development with inexperienced builders playing a game of …
In 2016 and the first quarter of this year, Atlanta’s economy boomed, showing several positive signs that point to another banner year for the multifamily market. From December 2016 through February 2017, Atlanta added 96,700 total non-farm jobs, an increase of 3.7 percent over the same time the previous year. Additionally, in 2016 the city experienced 3 percent wage growth overall. This translates to a robust multifamily market with solid fundamentals. According to Axiometrics, Atlanta’s average effective rent broke the $1,000 ceiling in second-quarter 2016 and has not stopped climbing since, reaching $1,068 as of first-quarter 2017. Rents are projected to increase by just under 5 percent in 2017. While the market’s rent growth rate is slowing, we cannot forget that Atlanta is breaking historical rent records while maintaining an occupancy rate in the 94 percent range for the last 11 consecutive quarters. Throughout the city, all asset classes — from Class C suburban properties to trophy Class A properties in the urban core — are posting strong performances. One trend we are keeping an eye on is single-family development, which is starting to come back as rental rates continue to rise and renters look to make a more permanent …
It is no secret that Atlanta has been a booming market in the post-recession era. Metro Atlanta added more than 85,000 jobs in 2016, while the unemployment rate has dropped to 4.9 percent, back to a prerecession level (2007). Atlanta has ranked near the top of the largest 10 office markets in annual job growth, outpacing the likes of New York, Los Angles and Chicago. There was 3.3 percent job growth in 2016, outpaced by only one large metropolitan peer, Dallas-Fort Worth. Rent Growth The Atlanta office market has shared this success as rents have continued to climb to record levels and vacancy levels have dropped. Since the end of 2012, overall gross asking rents have risen 22.1 percent, or $4.41 per square foot. Thanks to major relocations by companies such as Honeywell, GE Digital and Synovus, and major expansions by Kaiser Permanente, Sage, Anthem and Kabbage, among others, Atlanta’s overall office vacancy rate has plummeted 540 basis points from the end of 2012 (from 22.3 percent to 16.9 percent in the first quarter of 2017). Construction With market fundamentals in a stronger state than at any other time in recent history, the introduction of new product presents a litmus …
The Atlanta industrial market continues to grow in popularity when it comes to real estate investors’ appetite. Industrial assets are “hot items” in current investment sales transactions as the region’s economic momentum continues to position Atlanta as one of the healthiest industrial markets in the Southeast. Some of the major local and macro-economic trends affecting the industrial market include the ongoing growth of infrastructure, logistics and manufacturing industries. Furthermore, the Port of Savannah’s new Post Panamax facilities, its ongoing investment and expansion plans and its increasing activity are also beneficial to the Atlanta industrial market. Investment sales professionals, especially individual investors, remain attracted to Atlanta’s industrial market as e-commerce continues to transform how and where products are stored and shipped, not to mention the simplicity of owning and managing industrial properties, compared to retail and office. In 2016, the Atlanta industrial market experienced over 17 million square feet of net absorption. The forecasted absorption for 2017 ranges between 12 and 14 million square feet, with approximately 12 million square feet of new product being delivered this year. Over 90 percent of the new product comprises warehouse/distribution product, and less than 10 percent consists of new flex and shallow-bay buildings. Most …
It’s long been known that Atlanta, along with many other markets in the United States, is over-retailed. However, not all retailers are “overstored.” With the recent number of store closings announced (Sports Authority, hhgregg, Kmart, Sears, JC Penney, to name a few), it’s understandable that some have concerns over the current state of retail. That said, for many retailers, these closures become opportunities to enter certain markets or grab better positions within an existing market. As some retailers forfeit locations, these Atlanta vacancies will be absorbed. Burlington Stores recently backfilled the former Sports Authority adjacent to the Mall of Georgia in Buford, and will do the same with the former Best Buy adjacent to The Mall at Stonecrest in Lithonia. Ashley HomeStore will backfill the former Staples in Snellville. In Alpharetta, American Signature Furniture opened in the former Sports Authority box, and entertainment destination Dave & Buster’s is set to open in a former AMC Theatres. The retail industry is undergoing a shift as a result of the emergence of e-commerce and morphing consumer habits. It’s the retailers that are able to adapt and evolve along with changes in technology and consumer attitudes that will thrive, as very few are …
The Atlanta office market has continued down a path of steady recovery and absorption, although the pace remains somewhat muted from prior recovery cycles. As outside investors have warmed up to the city of Atlanta, they have been comforted by a safe and positively boring period of growth. For the last couple of years, investors have been committed strongly to value-add opportunities throughout metropolitan Atlanta, including areas that have historically been out of favor like Alpharetta and Peachtree Corners. The fundamental improvements in the market rents and occupancy continue to support bullish forecasts for office space in Atlanta with significantly low vacancy and steady rent growth. Atlanta’s office market sits at 12.1 percent vacancy, 6 percent rent growth and 3.6 million square feet of positive net absorption after several years of consistent absorption and falling vacancy. With value-add being a buzz word throughout the Southeast, many investment sales brokers have taken core assets and found ways to present them as opportunities for value-add in an effort to reach a larger pool of investors. Investor appetite continues to be measured and very focused on downside risk versus upside potential. This has inflated the return expectations for very solid real estate, making …
To understand the state of retail in Atlanta in 2005, you first looked at where and what developers were building, then to where retailers were locating and lastly to how consumers were shopping. Simply put, if a developer built it and a retailer occupied it, the consumer was sure to shop there, but that’s no longer the case. To understand the state of retail in Atlanta today, you need to start with the Atlanta consumer. Go Big or Go Home From 2000 to 2010, the Atlanta Regional Commission reports metro Atlanta added over 1 million residents with an additional 2.5 million people projected to be added between 2015 and 2040. Further, according to a study by the University of Georgia, half the state’s population growth is concentrated in just three Atlanta metro counties — Fulton, Gwinnett and Forsyth. A big driver for the growth is jobs, especially those in high-paying sectors like information, professional services, science and technology. EMSI reports that two of the counties making up Atlanta’s metropolitan area, Forsyth and Coweta, are in the top eight of large counties for skilled job growth. Additionally, Forbes claims Atlanta is now growing its business service sector faster than New York, …
The Atlanta retail market continues to be robust, with vacancy tightening in key submarkets and rents trending upward. Overall vacancy fell slightly from 7.1 percent during the fourth quarter of 2015 to 7 percent in the first quarter of 2016, according to CoStar. However, the decline is greater in hot submarkets such as Buckhead and Central Perimeter that boasted vacancy rates as low as 2.8 percent and 3.2 percent, respectively, in the first quarter. Demand Up, Supply Tightens There is still a disconnect between supply and demand, especially in strong trade areas, and many retailers that wish to enter or expand in the market are finding it difficult to do so. Rents are escalating by 10 percent to 15 percent because of the increased competition for space and the high cost to build new developments is attributable to escalating land costs. During the first quarter, 21 buildings totaling 300,174 square feet were delivered, according to CoStar, and at the end of the first quarter, 1.73 million square feet of retail space was under development. As Atlanta can deliver more of the space that’s under construction and open up availability, rent is expected to continue to climb. Health and Fitness Food …