Market Reports

A common question Chicago office brokers are hearing from clients these days is, “When is the best time to start negotiating with my landlord?” In fact, it is also a question brokers are asking themselves, contemplating when they should advise their clients to get into the market. The truth is: 1) it’s very hard to say, and 2) it depends on the situation.  Let’s explore what we do know. This is a historically tenant-favorable office market. Vacancy rates have increased from 13.8 percent to start 2021 up to 17.7 percent currently. Concessions are far over-weighted with construction allowances and free rent packages 20 to 30 percent higher than they were pre-pandemic, and landlords are being more flexible on term lengths allowing tenants three- or five-year leases despite offering full buildouts. On the other side of the coin, gross rental rates (base rent plus real estate taxes and building operating expenses) have not declined. In fact, in the last quarter they increased from $42.34 to $42.57 per square foot. The trends and market conditions surrounding concession packages and rental rates haven’t really changed in the last 12 months or so.  The above touches on what the market is doing, but what …

By Allen Rogoway, Cresa Chicago Over the past seven years, the Fulton Market office submarket has changed the landscape, and boundaries, of Chicago’s central business district (CBD) and what a “live-work” ecosystem can look like. Whereas the River North office submarket evolved over 30 years to become a low-cost alternative to the Loop for creative, boot-strapped companies requiring mostly small footprints, Fulton Market was developed for tech-centric, multinationals willing to pay “Trophy Tower” prices to attract and retain the very best talent. Employees didn’t mind adding a Chicago Transit Authority (CTA) transfer or 20 extra minutes to commute times each way in order to be in a neighborhood that was developed by big money yet felt authentic. Much of the architecture was preserved, and new construction was held to standards whereby the new mostly blended in with the area’s former produce, cold storage and century-old warehouses that had been converted for office use. Then old-guard companies and industries from accounting, consumer products and even law, started to set up shop in buildings that provided people with a very different workplace experience than what they were used to. Ownerships thoughtfully invested in tenant amenity spaces and retail pairings that matched with …

By Jeff Mulder, Colliers International Chicago By now, we all know that the COVID-19 pandemic has wreaked havoc across the world, affecting life as we knew it in the most unexpected ways. Our business, the business of office space, has been hit hard as companies almost instantly deferred or canceled real estate decisions and switched to work-from-home. The average occupancy of buildings in Chicago’s central business district (CBD) is currently 8.2 percent, according to the Building Owners and Managers Association. One year in, and corporations are still trying to determine the best path forward and what that will look like. But evidence of change, and some signs of what the future will look like, are slowly coming into focus. One noteworthy and reliable data point is sublease space. Colliers research reports that in the 20-plus-year history of Chicago’s office market, vacant sublease space offerings rise and peak within two to four quarters following major financial crises like the 2002 Tech Wreck and the 2009 Great Financial Crisis. Following these trends, current sublease space offerings in Chicago’s CBD have more than doubled since March 2020. Typically in the past, tenants in the market quickly absorbed sublease spaces that were offered — …

There is a widely held belief that investing in the Chicago office real estate market in 2020 is potentially a bad bet. While some investors are concerned by headlines decrying the fiscal health of Illinois, the supposed overvaluing of Cook County tax assessments and softening of the Chicago market, our experience tells us those fears will create opportunities for contrarian investors willing to dig deeper. Because these misperceptions are scaring away some institutional investors, the time is ripe for continued investment in Chicago office properties to take advantage of opportunities that more cautious investors are passing up. Municipal realities At the state level, much has been written about Illinois’ fiscal health. In a report released in September 2019, government watchdog Truth in Accounting labeled Illinois a “Sinkhole State” and ranked it 49th in the nation for its financial condition. After failing to raise enough revenue by hiking taxes to fund the state’s debt, leaders from Illinois have said that massive pension reform — not tax hikes — is the way out of our current debt crisis. Consequently, office real estate investors should not be overly concerned that the state of Illinois will potentially shift the state’s tax burden onto their …