Market Reports

At a time when the development of new retail power centers across metro Chicago has been at a record low since chain store proliferation first started back in the early 1980s, south suburban Cook County has suddenly seen a turnaround with the addition of two new freestanding Walmart stores and one new Meijer store. These three openings occurred within months of each other in 2016 and represent approximately 560,000 square feet of the 1.36 million square feet of new retail construction that opened across the greater Chicago market last year. The historical challenges for retailers attempting to operate stores in south suburban Cook County are no secret: out of control property taxes, often double or triple that of locations in DuPage or Will counties; a high sales tax; a shrinking population base; and a shift in retail spending to other markets. The cumulative effect was the January of 2015 closure of the Lincoln Mall in Matteson, located about 30 miles south of downtown Chicago, and increased retail vacancy rates in the area. Full-service grocery stores in the Matteson area also have been on the decline following the closure of Jewel, Dominick’s, Cub Foods and Walmart all within five years starting …

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Mixed-use projects are booming, and for good reason: the city as we know it is fundamentally changing. Millennials are flocking away from the suburbs and into the city center, driving development in walkable urban cores that incorporate everything consumers need to live, work and play. In Chicago, a dramatic increase in mixed-use development since the last recession has completely recast the way we think about how retail concepts fit into our unique urban landscape. Mixed-use buildings anchored by residential projects are well supported by the city’s political class because they increase density in a city that’s already bursting at the seams. Changes in the way the City of Chicago approaches zoning has led to an uptick in transit-oriented development, which allows for lower parking requirements in projects centered around mass transit hubs. The city’s transit-oriented development (TOD) ordinance, which was approved in 2013 and revised in 2015, has been the driver behind the massive influx of new mixed-use projects over the last four years. Mixed-use advantages From a purely economic standpoint, mixed-use projects boast a diverse tenant roster, which typically means less risk for investors. Land prices in Chicago have reached a point where in some cases standalone retail is …

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Chicago’s diverse economy and ample employment opportunities are driving growth metrowide, which bodes well for apartment owners and managers. Encouraged by the positive economic outlook, developers are expected to deliver nearly 7,500 new units this year, the largest supply increase since 2000. That said, high levels of construction will not be at the expense of other performance metrics such as occupancy, rent and price growth. Job growth is accelerant In the first half of the year, Chicago-area employers added 34,500 workers to their payrolls. Hiring was led by the leisure and hospitality sector and the construction industry, which expanded 4.2 percent and 5.3 percent respectively over the 12-month period that ended in June. Consistent employment expansion has also boosted household incomes, with the median household income reaching $65,300 at the end of the second quarter. With the median income above the nationwide average, demand for luxury rental units is rising tremendously. These factors, in addition to the Millennials and Empty Nesters flocking to the area, will support rental affordability and demand even as rents continue to increase. This is a positive indicator of the overall health of Chicago’s economy. Employers in metro Chicago remain on track to hire a total …

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Chicago’s nearly 1.2 billion-square-foot industrial market continues to be a strong performer, garnering national attention. Tightening vacancies, healthy absorption and rising rental rates have spurred increased construction across our region. In fact, 7.7 million square feet in new industrial product came on line during the first six months of the year, with another 16.6 million square feet currently under development, earning metro Chicago the distinction of having the second largest pipeline of new inventory in the country. As vacancies dwindle across the metro area, surging demand for quality, close-in manufacturing and distribution space is driving a critical mass of new speculative development in the city proper for the first time in more than a decade. From January 2015 through the second quarter of 2016, developers delivered 317,000 square feet of spec industrial product in metro Chicago, according to Cushman & Wakefield Research. To put that figure into context, a total of 238,000 square feet of spec product was introduced in the city during the prior 10 years (2005-2014). Another 369,000 square feet of spec development is underway and scheduled to be delivered in 2017, but the new construction will only partly mitigate the pent-up demand for space within city limits. …

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Today we have a choice in virtually every retail segment, and choosing a place for your favorite workout is no different. Specialty health clubs are a growing trend in Chicago, ranging from cycling at Flywheel or SoulCycle to high-impact cardio and weights at Shred415, Orange Theory or Barry’s Boot Camp. You can take ballet-inspired classes at Pure Barre, The Bar Method, Daily Method or The Barre Code, or yoga at Core Power Yoga, Yoga Six or Yoga By Degrees. You can even take rowing classes at GO Row or practice wake boarding with ChicagoSUP. But classes are not cheap, ranging from $20 to $30 per visit to unlimited yearlong memberships for $1,900. Despite the high price tag, these types of workouts are increasingly popular. While a full-service health club offers much more than just one type of workout, specialty fitness does just that — it specializes. Unique features  These fitness classes focus on just one exercise, making the classes more challenging and better with teachers who are experts. They also provide different levels of classes compared with a gym, which may only offer one yoga, weight or spin class. Specialty fitness spaces are smaller than a full-service health club, but …

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Across the country, and specifically in the Chicago corridor that leads to the northwestern suburbs, a wide range of businesses are debunking the commonly held notion that urban migration is diminishing the suburban marketplace. The evidence is indisputable. While Fortune 500 firms are leasing hundreds of thousands of square feet in Chicago’s suburbs, small to midsize firms are facilitating the expansion of their businesses by acquiring single-tenant facilities in the burbs as well. Since 2014, 20 businesses in Chicago’s northwest suburbs have acquired buildings totaling more than 1.3 million square feet of space, according to Colliers International. The cumulative purchase price of these assets exceeds $97.1 million. This level of activity compares favorably to statistics for the entire suburban marketplace that show 63 buildings totaling approximately 4.7 million square feet and valued in excess of $307.7 million were sold during that time (see table). Four driving factors  This healthy level of activity can be attributed to a variety of factors, four of which we highlight in this piece. • Access to capital — Banks are lending again and exhibiting greater levels of caution after years of retreating to the sidelines. Additionally, the cost of capital is very reasonable, in spite …

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The Chicago industrial market continues its charge full steam ahead in 2016, driven by strong fundamentals, our diverse economy, intense investor demand and constrained development. After a strong first quarter, the second quarter seems to be keeping pace. Demand remains high and continues to outpace new construction. We will also see more new projects announced as developers see continued success with existing projects. At the end of the first quarter, the overall vacancy rate in metro Chicago was slightly over 7 percent, down 10 basis points from the end of 2015, according to CoStar Group. All of the major submarkets posted vacancy rates of 10.1 percent or lower. Robust leasing activity Positive absorption in the first quarter was approximately 3.4 million square feet. Chicago has seen positive absorption every year since 2011, and this year looks to be headed in the same direction. The most active submarkets of O’Hare, I-55 and I-80 recorded vacancy rates of approximately 4.8 percent, 7.4 percent and 8.9 percent, respectively. Vacancy rates in those submarkets will continue to improve as speculative development is gobbled up as quickly as it is built, and existing product continues to get leased up. The I-80 and I-55 submarkets alone …

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The hotel industry has gained momentum over the last few years, with impressive increases in revenue per available room (RevPAR) and a continuing development boom in virtually all major markets across the Midwest and the nation. In the Chicago hotel market, RevPAR increased 7.2 percent in 2014 on a year-over-basis, according to STR Inc., and RevPAR was up 7.7 percent through the first 11 months of 2015. With consumer demand so strong and the development pipeline quite active, it might feel like the challenges of the last recession are long in the past. The reality, however, is that in a cyclical market the next downturn is never too far away. There are some indications that the ride may be slowing down and that the good times the region and the industry have enjoyed in recent years may be coming to an end. Oversupply Concerns While Chicago’s construction pipeline is smaller than a number of other metropolitan areas, it is the Windy City’s most robust development pipeline in recent memory. In aggregate, there will be a 20 percent increase in the room supply over three years. That could easily balloon to 25 percent with projects recently announced.  This is very likely …

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SPX

Chicago’s 1.2 billion-square-foot industrial market has weathered the Great Recession and is now showing strong growth through expansion of the region’s traditional boundaries and by way of redevelopment in land-locked areas. At the center of this trend is O’Hare International Airport — sixth in the nation and 17th in the world in air cargo tonnage. All totaled, the O’Hare industrial submarket contains 103 million square foot of product. Since the vacancy rate peaked at approximately 13 percent in 2010, the O’Hare industrial submarket has rebounded in a big way. In fact, the submarket has recorded positive absorption every year since 2011. The vacancy rate fell to 7 percent in 2014 due to an improving economy and the aggressive deal making of the larger industrial owners such as Prologis, KTR and Hamilton Partners. Development Ramps Up Shrinking vacancy rates and a lack of available Class A logistics facilities led to the delivery of multiple speculative developments in 2014. These projects were the first built since 2007. Panattoni completed 208,000 square feet at 1925 Busse Road in Elk Grove Village and leased the entire facility to CEVA Logistics. The project was subsequently sold to AEW Capital Management at a record-setting cap rate …

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Mid-America Real Estate’s annual Chicagoland Shopping Center Report shows construction completions totaled 2.4 million square feet in 2014, a slight uptick from the 2.26 million square feet completed in 2013. Looking ahead, 2015 should yield a little over 2 million square feet, which will likely prove to be within the normal range for development going forward. However, this is significantly less than the 8.3 million square feet completed in 2007. One of the primary causes of this decline is the demand for new shopping center space in the suburbs is primarily limited to single users, predominately grocery stores. While the demand for multi-tenant retail developments in urban markets remains high, the barriers to entry are significant. Consider, for example, that of the combined 26 new projects delivered in 2014 and planned for 2015, only one project, Regency Centers’ Shops on Main in Schererville, Indiana, is a suburban project built to accommodate more than one big-box retailer. Anchored by Gordmans, Shops on Main is also home to DSW, Home Goods, Ross, Pier 1 Imports and a planned Whole Foods. All of the remaining suburban projects are limited to single users such as Walmart/Sam’s Club, Target, Mariano’s or Meijer. The mid-sized boxes …

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