Market Reports

Consumers’ desire for shopping convenience and lower prices is driving online retail sales up, accounting for 7.2 percent of total U.S. retail sales so far in 2015, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. And that percentage is expected to double by 2020. It’s no wonder that the popularity of online shopping also is spurring growth in the industrial segment of commercial real estate, particularly in central Indiana. Over the past three years, the growth of e-commerce has accounted for 55 percent of total industrial net absorption in the United States. In 2015 alone, e-commerce has been responsible for 31 percent of industrial net absorption year to date. During the current expansion, the Indianapolis industrial market ranks eighth among all U.S. industrial markets in terms of total net absorption, according to Cushman & Wakefield. In the second quarter of this year, net absorption for modern bulk space totaled 1.6 million square feet, more than any other industrial segment in the market. Since 2013, nearly 15 percent of industrial square footage leased in metro Indianapolis has been related to e-commerce. The FedEx Factor With a compound annual growth rate of 14 percent since 2008, e-commerce has driven retailers to establish dedicated dot-com …

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The retail market as a whole is shifting to make shopping more experiential amid a recovering economy and the influence of millennials and their shopping demands and interests. Despite the buzz about the popularity of online shopping, less than 10 percent of all retail sales take place via the Internet. According to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC), online retail sales in 2013 were nearly $263 billion, accounting for a mere 6 percent of total retail sales. In-store sales accounted for the remaining $4.3 trillion, according to the U.S. Commerce Department. It’s clear that while some consumers find online shopping convenient, the majority still prefer the shopping center experience. In particular, millennials, who are 74 million strong with a buying power of $174 billion, demand that experience. Last fall, Indianapolis-based Simon Property Group forecast that 89 percent of millennials would shop at a mall over the holidays. Surprisingly, millennials use technology to conduct research about products, but they generally prefer to visit stores to make purchases. Millennials will read product reviews online but they want to touch the merchandise, feel it, experience it and then tweet about it to friends. So, while the entire shopping process revolves around technology, …

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The nickname for Indianapolis, “Naptown,” is quickly fading in the rearview mirror as the city receives an increasing amount of recognition as one of the best places to live and work in America. Thanks to a unique combination of Hoosier hospitality, pro-business environment and amenities such as the Cultural Trail, Indianapolis has been named “One of the best new boom towns in the U.S.” by Forbes magazine and the “No. 3 Downtown in the U.S.” by Livability.com. With $1 billion in new projects on the horizon, it’s no surprise that downtown Indianapolis is making headlines. Indygo’s $37 million Downtown Transit Center, in close proximity to the Cultural Trail and Bike Hub, will serve pedestrians, cyclists and bus riders. A $26 million investment in a new Science and Engineering Lab at Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis will continue to encourage life sciences and technology careers. Plans also are in the works to revamp downtown’s iconic Monument Circle with space for events, an ice skating rink, sidewalk cafes and more. On the residential front, investments in excess of $400 million over the past five years have resulted in new housing for 4,000 additional residents. Downtown Residential Boom According to public/private partnership Downtown Indy, …

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Indianapolis is experiencing explosive growth in the mid- and big-box grocery store sector. Capitalizing on the consumer trend of active and healthy lifestyles, the metro area has attracted new concepts to the market. Fresh Thyme Farmers Markets will soon join the already healthy and organic offerings of Whole Foods, The Fresh Market and Earth Fare. Although these brands have a smaller footprint than traditional grocers, these specialty gourmet grocers account for seven new stores consuming more than 160,000 square feet of retail space throughout Indianapolis and the suburban markets. This growth in the organic and health food concepts complements the well-care businesses that expanded their presence in the Indianapolis area last year, including Vision Works, Med Express, ATI Physical Therapy and Accelerated Physical Therapy. Consumer demand for convenient access to personal well-care services, such as medical spas, massage therapy, cosmetic dentistry and personal fitness is on the rise. These types of businesses account for a significant amount of absorption within several neighborhood shopping centers throughout the market. In that vein, consumers also are choosing healthier dining options such as grab-and-go prepared foods at their local grocer rather than hitting the fast food drive-thru or dining at a restaurant. This preference …

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The big story in the Indianapolis office market is not the latest change in the occupancy rate or rents, but rather the desire by landlords and tenants to create a sense of place. Connectivity and collaboration, amenities and perks, as well as talent recruitment and retention have taken on a heightened importance. Interestingly, these buzzwords are used just as frequently when assessing corporate real estate as they are in the human resources department. Employees today look for their work experience to offer something more than a desktop. They look for connectivity to diverse and conveniently located amenities within walking distance. They want easy access to biking and walking trails and fitness facilities. They seek open collaborative workstations, game rooms, huddle rooms, bike storage, as well as showers and lockers. Their desires are influencing real estate development and the locations employers ultimately select. There is ample evidence of these trends in Indianapolis. Thanks to the wisdom of the city’s early founders and more recently key city officials, Indianapolis enjoys a condensed city core. Its downtown already has the framework to offer up an easy-to-connect experience, recently enhanced with a world-class urban bike and pedestrian path connecting neighborhoods, cultural districts and other …

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The Indianapolis industrial market has experienced a significant amount of absorption during the past several quarters, driving down the multi-tenant vacancy rate to 3.3 percent and leading to a new round of speculative development, according to brokerage firm Cassidy Turley. The key engines driving growth are technology, housing, auto suppliers, and distribution centers related to Internet sales. Some 3.2 million square feet of speculative industrial space is under construction in the Indianapolis area. The city currently has 240.5 million square feet of inventory. When completed, the speculative product in the development pipeline is expected to result in the multi-tenant vacancy rate rising closer to the historical norm of approximately 4 percent. Michael Weishaar, senior vice president and principal at Cassidy Turley’s Indianapolis office, says the low industrial vacancy rate is partly the result of proper planning. “Our developers are intelligent about oversupply,” says Weishaar. “They saw a rough economy and thought we needed to re-look at our supply chain.” With so much speculative development under way, is there enough demand to absorb it all? Although vacancy rates will rise closer to their historical average in the short term when space comes available, in the long run this amount of space …

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Activity is picking up in the Indianapolis retail market, buoyed by a strengthening economy that has intensified retail expansion. Positive job growth, escalating new home construction and rising retail sales are attracting new stores and have instigated other retailers to consider additional locations in selective pockets around the metro area. The northern submarkets within Hamilton County are particularly active, especially around Exit 10 of I-69 in Noblesville, where new housing construction has fostered retail growth. In Carmel, the renovation and re-tenanting of The Centre and The Corner are moving forward. The 82nd Street corridor is also lively as the nearly completed expansion of The Fashion Mall has attracted new retailers to the state such as West Elm and Free People. Nearby, last year’s repositioning of Rivers Edge is initiating smaller new developments with Dairy Queen, Wendy’s and Famous Dave’s among the recent openings. The 127,000-square foot project will include an Earth Fare grocery, Walgreens and Panera Bread. Large spaces are being filled across the metro area. Jo-Ann Fabrics is taking 28,000 square feet along Highway 36 and Brickhouse Fitness has penned a lease for 15,000 square feet along Lafayette Road. Although retail construction is at near historic lows, smaller buildings …

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Despite the slow economic recovery nationwide, there is life in the commercial real estate investment market in Indianapolis, especially in the office sector. Nearly 900,000 square feet of office properties traded hands in Indianapolis in 2011, for a total of $119 million, which is a 70 percent increase over office sales in 2010, and four times the sales volume in 2009. Major property sales such as Intech I/II/III, 9225 Priority Way Dr. in the Precedent Office Park and Heather Glen II marked a return of stabilized office building sales in Indy last year. The increase in sales velocity is expected to continue with several major office properties currently on the market, including the Capital Center downtown, Pennwood Office Park in Carmel and the Ascension Health Ministry Service Center in the northwest submarket. Cassidy Turley is tracking an additional 3 million square feet of office properties expected to come to market this year, or in 2013. Continued improvement in office fundamentals is an encouraging sign for investors. With 237,000 square feet of positive net absorption in the fourth quarter of 2011, the overall vacancy rate for Indianapolis now stands at 20.3 percent. No new speculative construction, three consecutive quarters of positive …

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Although the Indianapolis retail market took a hit during the downturn, it never sunk as deeply into the doldrums as other U.S. cities, and has been relatively quick to rebound from its modest slide. Maintaining an unemployment rate well below the national average (8.7 percent at year-end 2010), with the prediction of 20,000 new jobs for 2011 ensures this market is headed in the right direction. Retail real estate brokers in this statistical region of more than 2 million were actually quite busy in 2008 and 2009 when most other regions were reeling from the economic crunch. Recognizing still-strong market fundamentals, retailers tried to seize on the doom and gloom of the times to lowball local landlords, who for the most part would not yield to unreasonable rent offers that they knew would tie them up for years to come. While retail vacancies remain low in the city’s most robust retail corridors, they are higher than they were before the downturn began in areas where demographics have shifted. We continue to see a flight to quality in this market with the most attractive, well-positioned shopping centers commanding surprisingly strong rents. For instance, Class A big box rents in highly desirable …

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In comparison to many other U.S. markets, the Indianapolis bulk warehouse sector has weathered the financial crisis and the downturn fairly well, but in no way is the city immune to the recession. The market’s vacancy rate has crept up from 13.25 percent at the beginning of 2009 to 15.20 percent at the end of the third quarter. Some of this increase in the vacancy rate can be contributed to two new projects coming online — Browning Development’s Axcess70 Buildings 1 and 2, totaling 673,000 square feet, and Browning/Duke Realty’s 533,520-square-foot Allpoints Midwest. In 2008, the modern bulk warehouse market experienced more than 5 million square feet of positive absorption while managing reasonable growth of 3.35 million square feet. The net result was a 7.5 percent increase to the entire Indianapolis modern bulk market. Through the close of third quarter 2009, the market has remained mostly idle, while only recording two new transactions — AEL Span 144,075-square-foot deal and Niagara Water’s 226,900-square-foot deal — and only growing the overall market inventory by 2.5 percent. Only a couple of new projects have come online, but these projects were financed and under way prior to the financial crisis really hitting in the …

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