Market Reports

Baltimore’s industrial market has been flourishing for years, but current trends suggest it may be poised to become one of the hottest markets in the United States over the next few years. Supporting these dynamics will be continued growth in e-commerce, a new emphasis by manufacturers and retailers on expanding their “safety stock” in warehouses and increasing land constraints in the Mid-Atlantic. The confluence of these trends is expected to drive average Baltimore industrial rents at one of the fastest clips of any market in the United States over the next two years. In 2021, the Baltimore industrial market recorded its most active first quarter of gross leasing in over a decade. Net absorption of 1.3 million square feet sparked the year with a strong start as the region’s industrial vacancy rate continued to hover near its lowest level in more than a decade. Vacancy in Baltimore industrial properties has been stable since 2018, despite approximately 12 million square feet of new warehouses constructed in that time span. Several important trends are driving the record-breaking market conditions and are expected to facilitate growth into the foreseeable future. The first trend is a sharply recovering economy in 2021 that may perform …

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It’s gearing up to be another solid year for Baltimore’s retail industry. Thus far, the first quarter has shown few surprises and has largely been a continuation of the success the sector saw in fourth-quarter 2019. Rent has remained relatively flat the past two years, outside of a few developments that have delivered, and we’re expecting more of the same this year. After a small bump in the road five years ago, the market has stabilized and retail vacancy in the Baltimore metro region remains tight. With limited new supply coming to market, landlords are focused on backfilling existing space. Class A and B properties continue to show healthy leasing trends, while Class C properties continue to be the value options for mostly local retailers. Baltimore metro’s primary retail corridors — York Road, Reisterstown Road, the core of downtown Baltimore, Columbia, White Marsh and Annapolis — continue to thrive. We’re also seeing strong growth along Ritchie Highway from Pasadena to Glen Burnie, buoyed by a string of new store openings at the Pasadena Crossroads Shopping Center, which is anchored by Sprouts Farmers Market, Ulta Beauty, T.J. Maxx, DSW, LA Fitness, Party City, Hobby Lobby, HomeGoods and Gardiner Wolf Furniture. In …

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Baltimore Multifamily Rent and Occupancy Forecast March 2020

Although attractive multifamily investment opportunities may still be available in gateway cities, investors increasingly are sourcing deals in secondary markets where land and asset prices are lower, cap rates a bit more generous and an unpicked gem of value-add fruit can still be found on the vine by intrepid late-cycle buyers. Parties looking to replicate past successes may not have to look too far afield as Maryland markets — overshadowed of late by Washington and Philadelphia — offer much of what they seek with perhaps a lower degree of risk. In the last decade and particularly the last three years, the catalyst for economic growth in the Capital Area has shifted from government to high-tech services. As the tide turned, the focus of commercial real estate activity moved south toward Washington’s central core and Northern Virginia. In the process, the Maryland suburbs lost some of their star power. The diminished status of Montgomery and Prince George’s counties wasn’t entirely a matter of perception. Suburban Maryland apartment performance materially underperformed national averages in 2017 and 2018, and the spread widened between cap rates applied to Maryland properties on one hand and District and Northern Virginia assets on the other. Same-store property …

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Industrial leasing activity in the greater Baltimore metropolitan region last year began with a whimper thanks to the federal government shutdown in January and February, but quickly gathered steam and never looked back, even in the final days to close out the year. In fact, the pace was record-breaking and historic by any measurement, with more than 9.5 million square feet of space absorbed. This figure was approximately 40 percent higher than 2018, which was also a tremendous year. There is more good news locally for companies that make their living developing warehouse and industrial space, brokers who match end-users for the available spaces and related professionals. Central to this activity is that fact that lots of people live in the Combined Statistic Area of Baltimore-Washington, D.C. region, which is the fourth largest MSA in the country and is still growing. A certain Seattle-based online retail company is establishing its second headquarters just down the road in Northern Virginia and its positive impact is being felt throughout the region. The central Maryland marketplace boasts an enviable transportation network led by major north-south axis Interstate 95, is within close proximity to several major seaports (Baltimore, Wilmington and Philadelphia) and one-third of …

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As real estate becomes more operational, a trend has emerged of major investors migrating away from big metros into secondary and tertiary markets. Occasionally, those markets move out of the shadows of their larger neighbors and acquire their own identity. Enter Columbia, Maryland, which initially attained national attention and acclaim as one of the first master-planned communities in the United States. Columbia is now in the midst of a major transformation. Built from the ground up in then-bucolic Howard County, Columbia was founded by developer James Rouse in 1967. Strategically located between Baltimore and Washington, D.C., the now 53-year-old community is blossoming with its own talent creators, talent attractors and 14 million square feet of new live-work-play development in a downtown transformed by The Howard Hughes Corp., a successor to The Rouse Co. The beginnings of Downtown Columbia’s emergence include the Merriweather District, which opens this spring. The first of three neighborhoods planned for downtown Columbia, the Merriweather District is being developed as a regional hub of culture and commerce. Talent creators The Howard County market is already home to cybersecurity incubators and cyber-focused venture capitalists like DataTribe and AllegisCyber. These companies consistently house and fund entrepreneurs developing innovative approaches …

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Continuing a trend that started approximately 10 years ago, the Central Maryland region remains an extremely attractive area for warehouse and industrial development with vacancy rates hovering in the 7 percent range, more than 3 million square feet currently underway and an additional 5 million square feet of space expected to break ground over the next 18 months. But new challenges are also starting to emerge in this marketplace, driven by barriers-to-entry such as land scarcity and increased government regulations. On the positive side, rental rates continue to inch upwards and end-user requirements in the 30,000- to 100,000-square-foot range, long the bread and butter of this region, have returned. Over the past decade, numerous local and national developers have been enjoying the high life in the Interstate 95 corridor spanning from Harford County north of Baltimore City, through Howard County and touching Prince George’s County, which is considered a suburb of Washington, D.C. A who’s who of retail royalty have signed substantial leases such as Amazon, Best Buy, FedEx, Floor & Décor, The Container Store, The Home Depot, Pier 1 Imports, Sephora Cosmetics, XPO Logistics and Under Armour. While many touched 1 million square feet of space, what previously was …

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The multifamily real estate landscape is booming across the Baltimore metro with exciting new development popping up throughout this burgeoning market. Luxury apartment developers have focused their attention on Baltimore City’s urban waterfront neighborhoods by creating a distinct live-work-play environment. At the same time, suburban developers have focused their efforts along the Interstate 95 corridor, drawn to affluent neighborhoods supported by top ranked school districts. While an increase in development has led to a rise in urban vacancy rates, the influx of tech startups, coupled with the city’s employment drivers — medical and educational institutions — has helped to stabilize these rates. TIF investment has also helped paint a bright future in Baltimore for mixed-use ventures like the East Baltimore Development project around Perkins Homes and the 250-acre Port Covington development in south Baltimore. Both projects are anticipated to support new multifamily housing in these areas. Development boom Vacancy rates have increased following a nearly 20,000-unit spike in new construction from 2014 to 2018. More than 3,900 new units were completed in 2018 alone, and another 6,400 units were underway at the start of 2019. The boom is expected to taper off in 2020 and has already caused a decrease …

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A strong, vibrant urban core is vital to the success of the entire metropolitan region, and although currently struggling to regain its footing in some critical areas, Baltimore City will eventually return to prominence in the eyes of international investors, CEOs and the general public. Local stakeholders retain confidence in the city based on its strong fundamentals, including nationally renown hospitals, an impressive labor force (a recent CBRE survey ranked Baltimore City as the No. 11 U.S. market for tech talent) and proximity to the Nation’s Capital and continued federal government spending. The city’s infrastructure, led by Interstate 95, the Port of Baltimore and Baltimore/Washington International Thurgood Marshall Airport (BWI), is among the most highly regarded across the country. There is an overall uptick in leasing and development activity in 2019, with an emphasis on mixed-use communities with an “engaging story to tell” based on the projects design, location or both. Baltimore City inches forward Ground was officially broken on the first phase of Port Covington, the $5.5 billion mega-project planned on a 235-acre waterfront parcel in south Baltimore that is expected to be anchored by the new Under Armour headquarters. This inaugural section will include 1.3 million square feet …

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The greater Baltimore metropolitan region achieved positive absorption of more than 6 million square feet of warehouse and industrial space in 2017, smashing the previous record by several million square feet and triggering yet another wave of speculative development activity. While on the surface there seems to be no end in sight to this unprecedented level of activity as we cross the midway point of 2018, there does exist several warning signs that are worth monitoring. But, who wants to dwell on anything remotely negative, when experiencing a seemingly end-less supply of 600,000-square-foot requirements? A Major Industrial Market The Baltimore-Washington, D.C. region is considered the fourth largest MSA in the country with more than 10 million people in the Combined Statistical Area. Several major seaports are within close proximity, approximately one-third of all consumers residing in the United States can be accessed within a one-day truck drive and developable land is still avail-able, although an increasing number of projects involve the demolition of unusable product to make way for the modern variety. Local fundamentals mirror conditions found in “white-hot” sections of the country, including the Inland Empire in Southern California, Northern New Jersey and sections in Pennsylvania where Interstates 81 …

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Continued job growth, coupled with a 4.3 percent unemployment rate (down from nearly 9 percent in 2010) in the greater Baltimore metropolitan region are the primary reasons giving real estate development companies the confidence to construct speculative commercial office buildings in select submarkets throughout central Maryland. After delivering more than 1 million square feet of space in Baltimore City, another 1.6 million is presently rising in the downtown skyline. Industries including financial services, medical and healthcare, education, cybersecurity and manufacturing continue to exhibit excellent health, and a location approximately 40 miles from the center of Washington, D.C., remains one of Baltimore’s most valuable assets. Below is a quick scan around the entire metro area: Canton Merritt Properties announced plans earlier this year to construct a 20-story, 200,000-square-foot speculative office building along Boston Street. Previously announced, but yet to begin just several streets away, is Corporate Office Properties Trust’s $1 billion project containing more than 1 million square feet of commercial office and retail space. Since the opening of The Shops at Canton Crossing, a shopping center developed by 28 Walker Associates several years ago, this submarket has experienced a retail renaissance, although the inclusion of new commercial office product is …

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