Market Reports

By Alex Patton Retail real estate investors in Boston are cautiously evaluating the risk profiles of tenants even as businesses reopen following temporary closures due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The emerging consensus is that until a vaccine is developed to safely treat the virus, the safest investments are tied to essential tenants with reliable incomes. That short list includes grocers, drugstores, home improvement businesses and liquor stores. Like the rest of the country, all nonessential retail businesses in Massachusetts were forced to close temporarily in early March, for what was originally expected to be a short period. After several weeks, the commonwealth’s government implemented a phased reopening system that allowed some retail businesses to resume operations. However, after months with significantly reduced income, a number of small retailers are declaring bankruptcy and permanently closing stores to save money. “The underlying question that permeates the retail investment industry, as an investor or a lender, is how much of the income is durable? In other words, which retailers are going to survive?” asks James Koury, senior managing director of investments at the Boston office of Institutional Property Advisors (IPA). “A vaccine would be a game-changer, but we can’t know if it will …

With older, pure-play retail space being repurposed into mixed-use developments and e-commerce-resistant users growing their regional footprints, the Boston retail market is evolving in lockstep with that of the United States. At the same time, new, trendy retailers and restaurant concepts are vying to get their feet in Boston’s door, drawn to the market’s healthy fundamentals and above-average levels of disposable household incomes. The net result of all this activity is a revitalized retail landscape that is defined by rapid absorption and rent growth within quality existing spaces, the repurposing of older spaces into different uses and the rise of mixed-use developments as backdrops for new supply additions. According to World Population Review, Boston, a city spanning some 100 square miles, is the fourth-most densely populated metro area in the country. Fueled by a vibrant education scene that includes more than 20 colleges and universities, as well as the addition of 25,000 new jobs in 2019, the population is growing. These geographic and demographic fundamentals have all but ensured that demand for retail space in Boston is perpetually strong, even during economic downtimes. According Marcus & Millichap, the city proper’s retail vacancy rate currently sits at 3.3 percent, though it …

Bolstered by strong growth in its millennial population and high-paying jobs, Boston’s urban core continues to boast one of the lowest retail vacancy rates in the country. But this trend has also led to a wave of new development that could temper that good news for Boston retail owners. According to data from Marcus & Millichap, metro Boston’s retail vacancy rate is expected to rise by 40 basis points from 3.2 percent to 3.6 percent in 2019, a year in which 1.3 million square feet of new projects are slated for completion. By comparison, the national vacancy rate stood at 10.2 percent at the end of the first quarter, reports Reis. Marcus & Millichap predicts that the uptick in metro Boston’s retail vacancy will slow the pace of annual rent growth to 3.3 percent. Population growth is fueling demand for housing, which in turn spurs demand for retail to serve those new residents. Metro Boston’s population has grown by more than 112,000 people over the last five years, according to Marcus & Millichap, and the area boasts a median household income in excess of $90,000. While the local rate of population growth mirrors that of the United States as a …