Market Reports

Over the past few decades, Omaha has grown in both size and reputation as a Midwest gem that offers affordable housing, a solid job market, excellent schools and a central location that makes both business and leisure travel a relative breeze. As our city has grown, our lifestyle has adapted, which has had an interesting impact on commercial real estate. While some developments are flourishing, others have been struggling. Overall, retail growth in Omaha is slow, but occupancy is robust in Class A-located centers. The main corridors in west Omaha (Center, Dodge and Maple streets) have strong occupancy and rents now pushing $40 per square foot NNN for new construction. Restaurants, medical/retail (or “medtail”) and fitness have become the main drivers of recent retail space use. “Treasure hunt” discount concepts such as Ross, Marshalls, TJ Maxx, Burlington and Five Below have all opened multiple locations in the past 24 months in a wide range of demographic areas of Omaha. Mall activity Nationally, the traditional shopping mall concept has been plagued by big-name store closures as consumers continue to turn to online shopping. Locally, some traditional malls are faring better than others. Westroads, which opened in 1968, remains strong in both …

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Although an article on soil erosion might seem more fitting coming from Nebraska, the greater erosion concern for the Cornhusker State is retaining its young and talented workforce. Nebraska’s state education system ranks No. 6 in the country and its high school graduation rate ranks No. 4 in the country, according to U.S. News & World Report. But Nebraska is faced with the dual challenge of retaining young, homegrown talent as well as attracting the next generation of talent from outside the state. Nebraska is presently leaking young talent to surrounding states with an annual net outward migration of approximately 3,300 persons and ranks 39th in the country with respect to attracting talent between the ages of 25 to 29 years old, so it’s a double whammy. A 3,300-person out-migration of talent might seem fairly modest, but over time, it can and will become significant. Like a faucet that continually drips, you don’t realize the cost until you get the water bill. Taking steps to enhance both the retention and attraction of young talent is key to Nebraska’s economic success. Thankfully, such steps are being pursued in both the private and public sector. Two plans of action in particular are …

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The term “mixed-use” appears to be all the rage, possibly a victim of its own success. A similar phenomenon occurred in the retail world with the introduction of the term “lifestyle center.” As a concept grows in popularity there is the natural inclination to capitalize on the movement, which can ultimately lead to watering down the concept. However, despite a trend toward reducing the term “mixed-use” to its lowest common denominator, namely having two different product types, Nebraska’s mixed-use developers have remained dedicated to a meaningful and synergistic combination of several product types: office, residential, retail and food and entertainment. Nebraskan’s zeal for creating sizable mixed-use projects has provided its residents a variety of developments possessing a genuine and meaningful sense of place and community. Although there’s more mixed-use projects in the making for the Husker State, for the purpose of this article we’ve chosen five projects that best represent the state’s mixed-use development. These developments not only create a desirable feel, but positively impact the larger community. Frankly, it’s one thing to have a successful mixed-use development where live, work and play isn’t just a marketing tag line. But, it’s a whole different matter when a project’s success spills …

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Remarkable. It’s the word that continues to pop up in interviews and conversations relating to the present transformation occurring in Omaha’s downtown area. If you think you might be experiencing déjà vu, it’s likely because you are. After all, it wasn’t that long ago when the same word was being used to describe the transformation that took place in downtown Omaha 10 to 15 years ago. It was at that time that approximately $2.5 billion was invested in Omaha’s downtown through a combination of public and private developments. Omaha introduced a laundry list of new buildings and projects, including the city’s new arena and convention center (presently branded the CHI Health Center), TD Ameritrade Park (the home of College World Series), the 45-story First National Bank Tower, the National Park Service Building, Gallup Organization’s operational headquarters, Union Pacific’s 1.1 million-square-foot headquarters, The Holland Performing Arts Center, Roman L. Hruska Federal Courthouse and The Bob Kerrey Pedestrian Bridge. That was remarkable. What could be so “remarkable” about the current downtown Omaha transformation? The answer is a redevelopment of the Gene Leahy Pedestrian Mall as part of the $300 million Riverfront Revitalization project. You might be thinking $300 million doesn’t sound remarkable …

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Omaha’s apartment market continues to be fundamentally strong and attractive to national and regional investors. According to Reis, Omaha’s asking rental rates have increased in every quarter over the past eight years, and vacancy remains low at 5.6 percent as of the end of 2018. Historically Omaha has had low vacancy. The 4.6 percent average vacancy rate over the past decade and 4.4 percent over the past five years is in line with the five-year national average of 4.5 percent. Looking forward, Reis expects the vacancy rate in 2019 to remain steady at 5.6 percent, and Colliers International expects the vacancy rate to dip slightly during 2019. Remaining affordable Not surprisingly, the relatively tight market, coupled with new construction, has continued to drive rents higher with asking rental rates growing at a strong 5.1 percent during 2019, according to Reis. Colliers, as well as local developers we surveyed, expect that rents will continue to grow in 2019, but at a more modest level, which we expect will be very close to Omaha’s average annual increase of 2.7 percent over the past 10 years. Importantly, Omaha also continues to have a relatively low cost of living for apartment dwellers with an …

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With asking rental rates increasing, an average vacancy rate of 5.7 percent and a low average asking rent per unit of just $855 per month, Omaha’s apartment market is increasingly attractive to national and regional investors. According to apartment research firm Reis, Omaha’s average asking rental rate has increased in every quarter for the past seven years, and is expected to increase by another 2.2 percent in 2018.  While not stellar growth, it continues a steady march upward that has benefited owners in Omaha for quite some time. Driving the growth in rents is the balanced nature of the Omaha market coupled with Omaha’s strong underlying economy. From a population growth perspective, census data shows that Omaha’s metropolitan statistical area (MSA) has grown 1.2 percent per year since 2010, and is now estimated at 939,000 people. That steady trend is expected to continue for the foreseeable future, as Omaha’s population is projected to grow another 1.1 percent per year through 2022. In terms of absorption, Omaha has averaged an annual addition of 4,000 households over the past 10 years, according to Reis. Renters account for 34.3 percent of Omaha MSA’s housing units, translating to roughly 1,372 new renter households each …

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The pace of evolution in the retail sector is accelerating in a manner that few would have anticipated even five years ago. E-commerce has proven to be a very powerful disruptor, affecting both retailers and property owners alike. For some who have had the foresight and financial resources to adapt to this change, the disruption has brought opportunities for growth and increased market share. Clearly, not all have been able to adapt — some due to lack of execution and others seemingly caught in circumstances beyond their control. Despite the turbulence within the retail category, overall U.S. retail sales grew a very respectable 4.2 percent during 2017, according to the U.S. Department of Commerce. The growth is attributed to continuing gains in employment and a marked improvement in economic growth during the second half of the year. On the local level, the Omaha retail market exhibited moderate improvement during 2017, following a year of weak performance in 2016. The market absorbed just over 364,000 square feet during the year (see chart), slightly under the average annual rate of 378,000 square feet for the past five years. The overall vacancy rate decreased from 11.2 percent to 10.5 percent during the year as …

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The national love affair with the multifamily sector may be starting to cool, but the Omaha market is just coming of age and heating up. “Overall, it was a strong third quarter, which was a nice surprise,”said Michael Cohen, CoStar Group director of advisory services, during his State of the Multifamily Market Third Quarter Review and Outlook on Nov. 1. “We’re still in the golden age for multifamily, but we’re seeing signs of a gradual slowdown in the apartment market.” Trendy new apartment towers and historic building conversions in downtown Omaha are all the rage — like most markets — but under the radar the entire Omaha metro is experiencing a significant boom in apartment development and sales. And why not? What’s not to like about Omaha? We are the non-threatening little brother of the Midwest that everyone likes, but never thought of in that way. But something has changed and Omaha is catching the attention of players that would have traditionally overlooked our strong fundamentals. Omaha has a diversified and stable economy fortified by nine Fortune 1000 companies, including Berkshire Hathaway, Union Pacific Railroad, Mutual of Omaha and TD Ameritrade, as well as a burgeoning innovation scene and a …

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Similar to the past couple of years, it is difficult to identify one or two items to highlight about the Omaha industrial market. Although the most impressive improvement might be the amount of new construction starts in 2016, factors such as sales prices per square foot, number of overall transactions, average asking rents, vacancy rates, landlord concessions all trended in a favorable direction for owners of industrial properties. This has been a staggering year- over-year trend, which has led many industry professionals to ask the same question: Is the market becoming too hot? User-driven projects over 100,000 square feet were the highlight of 2016, with multiple large projects breaking ground. Those users included Thrasher Inc., a rapidly growing, Omaha-based basement waterproofing and foundation repair company, which broke ground on its 209,000-square-foot office and warehouse facility located near 120th Street and Valley Ridge Drive; and Oxbow Industries, a Murdock, Neb.-based manufacturer, that is working with a developer on a new 140,000-square-foot facility at 150th Street and Schram Road. However, new construction starts for large projects were not the only storyline. Companies including Rotella’s Italian Bakery (6949 S. 108th St.) and State Steel (13413 Centech Road) made notable expansions to their existing …

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With an average occupancy rate of 96 percent at the end of 2016, coupled with a four percent growth in asking rental rates during 2016, Omaha’s apartment market continues to be a strong performer. According to apartment data research firm Reis, Omaha’s average asking rental rate has increased in every quarter for the past 23 quarters, and is expected to increase 3.6 percent in 2017. On the occupancy front, Reis expects the vacancy rate to finish 2017 slightly higher at 4.9 percent, which would still result in a projected healthy 95.1 percent occupancy rate. On a 10-year historical occupancy basis, Reis reports that the average occupancy over the past decade has been 95.3 percent. Meanwhile, the Institute of Real Estate Management (IREM) reports that the occupancy rate during the same period ranged from a low of 92 percent in 2008 to 96 percent in both 2013 and 2015. Since the beginning of 2007, the average annual increase in asking rental rates has been 2.7 percent, according to Reis. Over the past 23 quarters, the cumulative increase in asking rental rates has been 19.3 percent.   Investors take notice While Omaha may not have as robust rent growth as some East …

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