— By Jason Hallahan, associate, Colliers — Northern Nevada’s office market remained resilient throughout last year in the face of strong headwinds. Reno’s office market saw a blend of market fundamentals as net absorption declined, investment activity slowed and available sublease space shrunk. Negative net absorption in three out of four quarters brought the annual total to nearly 23,000 square feet of negative absorption — the lowest the market has seen since 2020. Vacancy ticked up 100 basis points year over year to 11 percent by the end of 2023, though it is well below the pandemic peak of 13.4 percent of mid-2020. Average direct asking rents also softened slightly this year, though tenant demand and asking rates both remain strong among Class A office product. A combination of growing vacancy, heightened interest rates and continued uncertainty in office space needs have curbed investor appetite this year. Demand for Reno office product fell sharply at the beginning of 2023 when first-quarter sales shrank to less than 20 percent of the average quarterly sale totals from the past three years. Buyers and sellers struggled to reach a middle ground as elevated vacancies weakened sale prices and increased borrowing costs discouraged investors. There …
— By Benjamin Galles, senior vice president, CBRE — The outlook for the Reno multifamily market in 2024 is similar to how the year panned out in 2023. There is significant interest in Reno from investors across asset types, earning us a ranking on Business Insider’s list of the top 15 hottest real estate markets for the next decade. Northern Nevada’s continued job growth has piqued investors’ interest in owning multifamily properties within the state. This growth will continue as existing companies expand their presence in the market, proving their commitment to the city and people of Northern Nevada. The current elevated construction costs and construction loan costs could pose a roadblock to developers meeting the anticipated demand in the next 12 to 24 months. That being said, there are currently 4,700 apartment units under construction in the market. This will likely be absorbed by people moving into Reno from outside the region. Unlike other markets we’ve seen across the country, very few loans in our region have maturities over the next 12 months. This means seller motivation in Reno remains low to moderate when it comes to offloading properties. The lack of debt events where owners will be pressed into a …
— By Mike Ballard, Partner, Ascent Multifamily Accounting in Las Vegas — Las Vegas — known for its vibrant entertainment scene and thriving real estate market — is experiencing the early signs of a recession. With one of the most substantial construction forecasts in the nation, the Las Vegas multifamily real estate sector is poised to witness a surge in supply with 8,000 units to come online by 2025, according to Avison Young. However, despite the anticipated surge in deliveries, the Las Vegas market has seen fewer construction starts this year. We can anticipate that the Valley will once again have a shortage of rental housing in 2025 and 2026, which will increase rents and cause concessions to evaporate. It is also anticipated that up to 10 percent of commercial real estate within the Valley may face foreclosure in the next 18 months. The city is currently experiencing one of the highest rates of foreclosure in the country, with nearly one in every 1,800 homes experiencing foreclosure. This can be attributed to high interest rates and the prospect of a recession forming a dark cloud over the nation’s real estate market. According to CoStar, quarterly multifamily sales volume has yet to eclipse $150 million in 2023. The surge in supply is also …
— By Jeffrey Swinger, Executive Vice President | Las Vegas, Multifamily Investment Sales, Colliers — Las Vegas is on a roll right now, continuing to raise the bar year after year, and we are bullish on the long-term outlook of Southern Nevada’s future. UNLV’s Center for Business and Economic Research predicts that Southern Nevada’s population will gain 41,900 new residents in 2023 and increase another 2.4 percent in 2024. This wave of growth, coupled with strong local economic activity and enhanced infrastructure investments, has created more jobs and more demand for housing. With more than $8.12 billion of new major projects delivered in 2023, there is another $2 billion currently under construction with plans to deliver in 2024 and 2025. Additionally, there is another $17.25 billion of announced and proposed projects keeping Las Vegas’s momentum moving forward. Significant projects that were delivered in 2023 include the Fontainebleau, the MSG Sphere and the inaugural Formula 1 Heineken Silver Las Vegas Grand Prix. The Fontainebleau is the latest hotel/casino along the Strip, valued at $3.7 billion, and will add 3,644 rooms to the hotel inventory count. The MSG Sphere is Las Vegas’s newest entertainment venue featuring the largest spherical building in the …
— By Paul Sweetland, SIOR, Vice Chairman, Colliers Doherty Industrial Group — Throughout 2023 we were often asked if the Las Vegas industrial market had “missed the memo” on the slowdown since other western markets were experiencing a slowdown that we had yet to see. With record under-construction numbers and net absorption numbers being on pace to finish the year with the second highest total of the last five years, Las Vegas didn’t appear to be slowing down. However, there are certain sectors that show initial signs of a pending change. Land Sales: Land sale transactions have seen a 75 percent drop from the prior year. Peak land pricing was $36.00 per land square foot in the summer of 2022, and by the fourth quarter of 2023 it had dropped 25 to 35 percent as demonstrated in the limited closings that occurred. Although lease rates continued to increase, developer underwriting had seen significant changes in exit CAP rates along with debt, equity and construction financing due to an unstable interest rate environment with the Feds continued rate increases at the fastest pace in 40 years. Lower land pricing or significant lease rate increases are going to be necessary for the …
— By Tad Loran, Vice President, Retail Specialist, Avison Young | Western Alliance Commercial Inc. — The Northern Nevada retail sector has made quite a comeback post-pandemic as both the population and job market expand. The retail vacancy rate ended last year at 4.7 percent and increased 20 basis points to a current level of 4.9 percent, while market rent increased from $1.70 to $1.83 on a monthly basis for the same period. South Virginia, Meadowood, South Reno and the North Valleys are all recipients of a thriving market. Tenants that have recently entered the region or are expanding in Northern Nevada include Petco, Panera Bread, Colombia Sportswear, Voodoo Brewing Company, the Human Bean, Starbucks, Cracker Barrel, Mountain Mike Pizza, Take 5 Oil Change, AutoZone and Five Below. Tenants with recent closures include Bed Bath & Beyond, Lucky Brand Jeans, Tuesday Morning, Steak ‘n Shake, Sizzler Steakhouse and Claim Jumper. Unemployment in Nevada increased to 4.4 percent in July 2023 from 3.5 percent in December 2022. Even though there was an increase, this continued low unemployment rate has created a challenging labor market with employers lacking the necessary labor pool to grow. Unfortunately, this shortage has led to some prospective new businesses …
— By Justin Basie President of Real Estate, Mark IV Capital — While the Reno-Sparks Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is best known for its gaming-tourism industry, its location in Northern Nevada also appeals to fans of the outdoors. In addition, Reno’s diversified economy readily attracts Fortune 500 companies that are targeting the area for their manufacturing and distribution efforts. This, in turn, drives the massive growth of Northern Nevada’s industrial sector, generating overwhelming demand for warehouse, logistics and manufacturing space in the region. The following fundamentals have positioned Northern Nevada and the Reno-Sparks MSA as ideal destinations for logistics, manufacturing and other industrial activities: • Population Proximity The MSA is conveniently located within a one-day trip of major West Coast cities like Los Angeles, San Francisco and Portland, Ore. Thanks to an efficient infrastructure network that includes major highways, two railways and the Reno-Tahoe International Airport, companies can reach a vast 80 percent of the Western U.S. population in less than 24 hours. • Business-Friendly Climate Nevada is consistently ranked as a top 10 state for conducting business because of its pro-business regulatory environment, low-cost start-up fees, and streamlined licensing and approval processes. Nevada also offers a favorable tax environment for …
— By Nick Knecht, Vice President, DCG Industrial — The industrial real estate market in Northern Nevada demonstrated stability over the first three quarters of 2023. Sales performance year to date through the third quarter was steady, with industrial sales volume reaching $116 million. This represents a 42 percent increase compared to the same period in 2022. This should keep the market on track for a decent year, despite falling slightly short of its historical averages. Notably, the shift in buyer dynamics caused by the rise in interest rates, which have soared as high as 8 percent, has investors sticking to a more conservative approach to their underwriting. Owner-users have emerged as the primary drivers of sale activity, and were the buyers of all four closed sales in September. Prices are beginning to soften, and price reductions are occurring more frequently, which is expected to improve buying opportunities for investors over the next 12 to 18 months. Leasing activity has been concentrated in the 10,000- to 50,000-square-foot range, which captured 44 percent of the third quarter’s lease transactions, and similarly 38 percent in the 5,000- to 10,000-square-foot range. Lease rates have remained relatively stable since the first quarter, with Class A …
— By Aiman Noursoultanova, Senior Vice President, CBRE’s Reno Investment Properties Group — Reno’s multifamily sector has performed exceptionally well over the past decade due, in part, to strong, sustained job growth. Nevada continues to lead the nation in employment growth at 3.8 percent over the past year, according to July data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. While Reno’s job growth over the past decade has focused more on diversification, recent growth can best be characterized by higher-wage industries like healthcare, technology, manufacturing and aerospace/aviation. As a result, the market has seen an influx of new Class A, well-amenitized construction that appeals to this new tenant demographic. Notable company relocations and expansions thus far in 2023 include OMEC Medical, a life sciences instrument manufacturer; Edgecore, a wholesale data center developer, owner and operator; Generac, a leading global designer, manufacturer and provider of energy technology solutions; and Stellar Aviation, a fixed-base private airplane operator catering to private planes and jets. Companies investing in Reno most commonly appreciate the region’s attractive regulatory environment, low cost of doing business, access to regional transportation corridors and a high quality of life for its employees. Regarding rent growth over the past decade, several submarkets have performed …
— By Daniel A. Kapic, Vice President, Regional Manager, Marcus & Millichap — Reno continues to be one of the nation’s fastest-growing smaller markets, underpinning tenant demand in the office sector. While remote and hybrid work have impacted office use in the metro, market-wide vacancies have kept in decent shape. Entering July 2023, Reno’s 15.1 percent vacancy rate was below the pre-2017 average. Rapid household growth has backstopped space needs, with law, financial and health service providers executing expansions to capture share in a growing market. The local household count increased 2.2 percent year over year in September, which was the second fastest among metros with fewer than 600,000 households. South Reno is spearheading this growth with 14 consecutive quarters of positive apartment net absorption through June 2023, drawing consumer-facing office tenants to the highly developed Meadowood neighborhood. The Reno VA Medical Center — which serves patients as far as Alturas, Calif. — recently announced its relocation to the area, which should also elevate long-term needs for nearby medical office space. While household growth has shored up space demand, Reno’s office market is still recalibrating to a 20-year-high supply injection. Overall inventory expanded 2 percent in the first half of …
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