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Market ReportsNevadaWesternWestern Market Reports

Navigating Las Vegas Real Estate as the Recession Cycle Begins

by Jeff Shaw

— By Mike Ballard, Partner, Ascent Multifamily Accounting in Las Vegas — Las Vegas — known for its vibrant entertainment scene and thriving real estate market — is experiencing the early signs of a recession. With one of the most substantial construction forecasts in the nation, the Las Vegas multifamily real estate sector is poised to witness a surge in supply with 8,000 units to come online by 2025, according to Avison Young.  However, despite the anticipated surge in deliveries, the Las Vegas market has seen fewer construction starts this year. We can anticipate that the Valley will once again have a shortage of rental housing in 2025 and 2026, which will increase rents and cause concessions to evaporate.    It is also anticipated that up to 10 percent of commercial real estate within the Valley may face foreclosure in the next 18 months. The city is currently experiencing one of the highest rates of foreclosure in the country, with nearly one in every 1,800 homes experiencing foreclosure. This can be attributed to high interest rates and the prospect of a recession forming a dark cloud over the nation’s real estate market.  According to CoStar, quarterly multifamily sales volume has yet to eclipse $150 million in 2023. The surge in supply is also …

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Market ReportsNevadaWesternWestern Market Reports

Population Growth Drives Development in Southern Nevada

by Jeff Shaw

— By Jeffrey Swinger, Executive Vice President | Las Vegas, Multifamily Investment Sales, Colliers — Las Vegas is on a roll right now, continuing to raise the bar year after year, and we are bullish on the long-term outlook of Southern Nevada’s future. UNLV’s Center for Business and Economic Research predicts that Southern Nevada’s population will gain 41,900 new residents in 2023 and increase another 2.4 percent in 2024. This wave of growth, coupled with strong local economic activity and enhanced infrastructure investments, has created more jobs and more demand for housing.  With more than $8.12 billion of new major projects delivered in 2023, there is another $2 billion currently under construction with plans to deliver in 2024 and 2025. Additionally, there is another $17.25 billion of announced and proposed projects keeping Las Vegas’s momentum moving forward. Significant projects that were delivered in 2023 include the Fontainebleau, the MSG Sphere and the inaugural Formula 1 Heineken Silver Las Vegas Grand Prix. The Fontainebleau is the latest hotel/casino along the Strip, valued at $3.7 billion, and will add 3,644 rooms to the hotel inventory count. The MSG Sphere is Las Vegas’s newest entertainment venue featuring the largest spherical building in the …

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Market ReportsNevadaWesternWestern Market Reports

Steady Activity Continues in the Las Vegas Market, Despite 2024 Headwinds

by Jeff Shaw

— By Paul Sweetland, SIOR, Vice Chairman, Colliers Doherty Industrial Group — Throughout 2023 we were often asked if the Las Vegas industrial market had “missed the memo” on the slowdown since other western markets were experiencing a slowdown that we had yet to see. With record under-construction numbers and net absorption numbers being on pace to finish the year with the second highest total of the last five years, Las Vegas didn’t appear to be slowing down. However, there are certain sectors that show initial signs of a pending change.  Land Sales:  Land sale transactions have seen a 75 percent drop from the prior year. Peak land pricing was $36.00 per land square foot in the summer of 2022, and by the fourth quarter of 2023 it had dropped 25 to 35 percent as demonstrated in the limited closings that occurred. Although lease rates continued to increase, developer underwriting had seen significant changes in exit CAP rates along with debt, equity and construction financing due to an unstable interest rate environment with the Feds continued rate increases at the fastest pace in 40 years. Lower land pricing or significant lease rate increases are going to be necessary for the …

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Market ReportsNevadaRetailWesternWestern Market Reports

Job Growth, Tourism Create Opportunities for Northern Nevada Retail

by Jeff Shaw

— By Tad Loran, Vice President, Retail Specialist, Avison Young | Western Alliance Commercial Inc. — The Northern Nevada retail sector has made quite a comeback post-pandemic as both the population and job market expand.  The retail vacancy rate ended last year at 4.7 percent and increased 20 basis points to a current level of 4.9 percent, while market rent increased from $1.70 to $1.83 on a monthly basis for the same period. South Virginia, Meadowood, South Reno and the North Valleys are all recipients of a thriving market. Tenants that have recently entered the region or are expanding in Northern Nevada include Petco, Panera Bread, Colombia Sportswear, Voodoo Brewing Company, the Human Bean, Starbucks, Cracker Barrel, Mountain Mike Pizza, Take 5 Oil Change, AutoZone and Five Below. Tenants with recent closures include Bed Bath & Beyond, Lucky Brand Jeans, Tuesday Morning, Steak ‘n Shake, Sizzler Steakhouse and Claim Jumper.   Unemployment in Nevada increased to 4.4 percent in July 2023 from 3.5 percent in December 2022. Even though there was an increase, this continued low unemployment rate has created a challenging labor market with employers lacking the necessary labor pool to grow. Unfortunately, this shortage has led to some prospective new businesses …

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IndustrialMarket ReportsNevadaWesternWestern Market Reports

Tourism to Operations: Reno’s Robust Industrial Market

by Jeff Shaw

— By Justin Basie President of Real Estate, Mark IV Capital — While the Reno-Sparks Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is best known for its gaming-tourism industry, its location in Northern Nevada also appeals to fans of the outdoors.  In addition, Reno’s diversified economy readily attracts Fortune 500 companies that are targeting the area for their manufacturing and distribution efforts. This, in turn, drives the massive growth of Northern Nevada’s industrial sector, generating overwhelming demand for warehouse, logistics and manufacturing space in the region.  The following fundamentals have positioned Northern Nevada and the Reno-Sparks MSA as ideal destinations for logistics, manufacturing and other industrial activities: • Population Proximity The MSA is conveniently located within a one-day trip of major West Coast cities like Los Angeles, San Francisco and Portland, Ore. Thanks to an efficient infrastructure network that includes major highways, two railways and the Reno-Tahoe International Airport, companies can reach a vast 80 percent of the Western U.S. population in less than 24 hours.  • Business-Friendly Climate Nevada is consistently ranked as a top 10 state for conducting business because of its pro-business regulatory environment, low-cost start-up fees, and streamlined licensing and approval processes. Nevada also offers a favorable tax environment for …

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IndustrialMarket ReportsNevadaWesternWestern Market Reports

Reno-Sparks Industrial Market is Stable, Despite 2023 Headwinds

by Jeff Shaw

— By Nick Knecht, Vice President, DCG Industrial — The industrial real estate market in Northern Nevada demonstrated stability over the first three quarters of 2023.  Sales performance year to date through the third quarter was steady, with industrial sales volume reaching $116 million. This represents a 42 percent increase compared to the same period in 2022. This should keep the market on track for a decent year, despite falling slightly short of its historical averages.  Notably, the shift in buyer dynamics caused by the rise in interest rates, which have soared as high as 8 percent, has investors sticking to a more conservative approach to their underwriting. Owner-users have emerged as the primary drivers of sale activity, and were the buyers of all four closed sales in September. Prices are beginning to soften, and price reductions are occurring more frequently, which is expected to improve buying opportunities for investors over the next 12 to 18 months.  Leasing activity has been concentrated in the 10,000- to 50,000-square-foot range, which captured 44 percent of the third quarter’s lease transactions, and similarly 38 percent in the 5,000- to 10,000-square-foot range. Lease rates have remained relatively stable since the first quarter, with Class A …

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Market ReportsMultifamilyNevadaWesternWestern Market Reports

Higher-Wage Job Growth Buoys Rent Growth, Continued Development in Reno

by Jeff Shaw

— By Aiman Noursoultanova, Senior Vice President, CBRE’s Reno Investment Properties Group — Reno’s multifamily sector has performed exceptionally well over the past decade due, in part, to strong, sustained job growth. Nevada continues to lead the nation in employment growth at 3.8 percent over the past year, according to July data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. While Reno’s job growth over the past decade has focused more on diversification, recent growth can best be characterized by higher-wage industries like healthcare, technology, manufacturing and aerospace/aviation. As a result, the market has seen an influx of new Class A, well-amenitized construction that appeals to this new tenant demographic.  Notable company relocations and expansions thus far in 2023 include OMEC Medical, a life sciences instrument manufacturer; Edgecore, a wholesale data center developer, owner and operator; Generac, a leading global designer, manufacturer and provider of energy technology solutions; and Stellar Aviation, a fixed-base private airplane operator catering to private planes and jets. Companies investing in Reno most commonly appreciate the region’s attractive regulatory environment, low cost of doing business, access to regional transportation corridors and a high quality of life for its employees. Regarding rent growth over the past decade, several submarkets have performed …

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Market ReportsNevadaOfficeWesternWestern Market Reports

Reno’s Household Growth Boosts its Office Sector

by Jeff Shaw

— By Daniel A. Kapic, Vice President, Regional Manager, Marcus & Millichap — Reno continues to be one of the nation’s fastest-growing smaller markets, underpinning tenant demand in the office sector. While remote and hybrid work have impacted office use in the metro, market-wide vacancies have kept in decent shape. Entering July 2023, Reno’s 15.1 percent vacancy rate was below the pre-2017 average. Rapid household growth has backstopped space needs, with law, financial and health service providers executing expansions to capture share in a growing market. The local household count increased 2.2 percent year over year in September, which was the second fastest among metros with fewer than 600,000 households. South Reno is spearheading this growth with 14 consecutive quarters of positive apartment net absorption through June 2023, drawing consumer-facing office tenants to the highly developed Meadowood neighborhood. The Reno VA Medical Center — which serves patients as far as Alturas, Calif. — recently announced its relocation to the area, which should also elevate long-term needs for nearby medical office space.  While household growth has shored up space demand, Reno’s office market is still recalibrating to a 20-year-high supply injection. Overall inventory expanded 2 percent in the first half of …

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Market ReportsMultifamilyNevadaWesternWestern Market Reports

Las Vegas’ Multifamily Market Is All About Growth, Challenges

by Jeff Shaw

— By James Hall, ABI Multifamily — It’s been a tumultuous year for global capital markets and asset prices, which have had to contend with a broad array of geopolitical and economic headwinds. The Las Vegas multifamily market — while it remains demographically sound — is dealing with inflationary-based pricing concerns and fundamental characteristics dampening investor appetite.Amongst all the noise and negatively skewed fundamentals, Las Vegas’ economy continues to grow, with tourism surpassing pre-pandemic levels this quarter. Harry Reid Airport reported the highest recorded number of passengers in February, indicating that the market continues to benefit from a surge in post-pandemic domestic tourism.A report released by the Federal Funds Information for States ranked Nevada as first in the nation for economic growth and momentum last year. The measurement considers a wide array of key economic and demographic indicators, including population, personal income and employment growth.While California continues to reel from a declining population, both Nevada and Arizona are benefiting from a surge in net-migration. The population of Las Vegas is expected to double by 2060, which would add an additional 2 million residents to the MSA, per Woods and Poole Economics..Las Vegas residents have a much higher propensity to rent …

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Las Vegas Industrial Remains Resilient with Record-Low Vacancy Rates 

by Jeff Shaw

— By Jerry Doty, Senior Vice President, Colliers — Las Vegas was once known only for its flashy casinos and luxurious hotels, but over the past several years, it has become a growing distribution hub for the entire West Coast. Las Vegas is situated at the intersection of several major highways, making it an ideal location for businesses that need to move goods quickly and efficiently.  The city’s proximity to the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach also make it a gateway for goods entering and leaving the United States. Our industrial market has had an epic rise in recent years, and up until the recent economic shake-up with rising interest rates and uncertainty in the capital markets, there was no end in sight. We continue to ask ourselves if 2023 will be the year things finally slow down or, even worse, take a step back.  First, the good news. One of the most striking statistics about the Las Vegas industrial market is the extremely low vacancy rate. Despite delivering about 8.5 million square feet over the previous five quarters, we still sit at a near record-low overall vacancy of 1.5 percent for the first quarter of 2023. Even …

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