— By Todd Manning, Managing Broker, NAI Vegas, and Maria Herman, Senior Vice President, Retail Division, NAI Vegas — The Las Vegas retail market continues to perform well into 2023 despite a few headwinds (and headlines) dogging the industry. The success is due in part to Las Vegas continuing to experience strong growth coming out of the pandemic years. For example, visitor volume to Las Vegas reached more than 3 million people in February 2023, which was up 17.8 percent year over year, but was still down 3.4 percent from February 2019. Speaking of performing well, Las Vegas’ retail vacancy rate has been holding steady at around 5.2 percent, just slightly lower than it was a year ago. It is also the market’s lowest retail vacancy rate in over 15 years. Rent growth is slowing, however, and is down from the 10.4 percent gains of one year ago. Rent growth has been another bright spot for Las Vegas retail landlords as rates continue to increase at 7.7 percent year over year. Rent growth is slowing, however, and is down from the 10.4 percent gains from a year ago. Not surprisingly, the investment market for commercial property, retail included, has experienced …
Market Reports
— By Dan Palmeri, Senior Vice President, CBRE — As Las Vegas reinvents itself as the sports and entertainment capital of the world — while still maintaining the fun factor it has always been known for — the corporate world continues to look at Southern Nevada as a legitimate place to do business. The city saw a record number of Class A deliveries in 2022 and has shown no signs of slowing down through 2023. This is a reflection of the demand for new, functional and relevant office space. Like most markets, location and quality of buildings are the main drivers for employers as they focus on employee happiness and retention. As Las Vegas has grown from a small desert town in the ‘70s and ‘80s with 505,000 residents in 1983, to a market of more than 2.3 million residents today, the natural geographical growth outward has hit a point where the city has reached the Valley’s boundaries in all directions. What was once a five- to 10-minute commute to the center of town has now become a 20- to 30-minute commute for the mass of suburban dwellers. This has organically led to a focus on a 25-mile stretch from …
— By Aiman Noursoultanova, Senior Vice President, CBRE — Reno has become an increasingly attractive market over the past decade for multifamily investors due to its continued strong performance, fueled by a desirable business and regulatory climate. Rents have doubled since 2013, while vacancy has continued to remain healthy despite robust construction activity. Multifamily investors took notice once noteworthy companies like Apple, Google, Microsoft and Tesla began to increase their investments in the region. Strong Population, Job Growth Fuel Investment Reno’s population grew by 15.3 percent in the past decade. The area is projected to see 51.6 percent population growth by 2060, the 40th highest of all 384 U.S. metro areas, according to Washington D.C.-based economic and demographic data firm Woods & Poole Economics. As a testament to the area’s growth, the Reno-Tahoe International Airport recently announced a $500 million development and expansion project to accommodate airport traffic. The area’s rise in population is attributed primarily to job growth and a desirable quality of life. This started with Tesla’s initial Gigafactory investment in the region, then continued with Apple’s 1.1-million-square-foot data center campus. Google also purchased 1,210 acres and plans for a future data center development. Meanwhile, Tesla announced a $3.6 …
— By Tad Loran, Vice President, Retail Specialist, Avison Young | Western Alliance Commercial — The Northern Nevada retail market has been performing well. New tenants are entering the marketplace and the area experienced positive absorption. Rental rates have increased for the year, but there has been a decrease in commercial sales due to higher interest rates. The retail vacancy rate is currently at 4.7 percent, while asking rental rates are at $1.70 per square foot on a monthly basis. Many submarkets have shown improvement, including South Virginia, Meadowood, South Reno and the North Valleys. Tenants that have recently entered or are expanding in Northern Nevada include Colombia Sportswear, Voodoo Brewing Company, Jamba Juice, the Human Bean, Starbucks, Cracker Barrel, Mountain Mike Pizza, Pet Station, Take 5 Oil Change, AutoZone and Five Below. Tenants with closures include Bed Bath & Beyond, Sizzler Steakhouse, Food Source Grocery Store, Campo, California Pizza Kitchen, Long John Silver’s, Rounds Bakery and Claim Jumper. Unemployment in Nevada fell to 3.4 percent in December 2022. This low unemployment rate has led some prospective new businesses to either delay or cancel expansion plans in this region. From a development perspective, Reno has many new projects in the …
— By Baker Krukow, Senior Advisor, Industrial, Dickson Commercial Group — The Reno-Sparks industrial market is expected to remain active in 2023. It has a hefty pipeline of proposed industrial projects, steady increases in rental rates and a direct vacancy rate below 2 percent. The lack of available product has remained a challenge for tenants looking to occupy space, while landlords have been able to benefit from competing offers. The result of these tight market conditions will continue to push industrial development throughout the year. There was roughly 5.4 million square feet of new industrial product delivered in 2022, with 76 percent of those projects being speculative developments. A vast majority of those spec projects were pre-leased prior to completion. Looking at 2023 new construction, developers are dealing with severe winter weather delays. As a result, several projects have had to push back their completion timelines. Amongst some of the anticipated industrial projects under construction are Dermody Properties’ LogistiCenter at I-80 West Phase II, which will contain two state-of-the-art distribution buildings totaling 429,000 square feet. In the Sparks submarket, Panattoni Development has broken ground on the Pyramid Pointe Commerce Center, a 195,000-square-foot, Class A flex/bulk building, which will demise to …
— By Melissa Molyneaux, Executive Vice President, Colliers — The Northern Nevada market has seen continued positive net absorption, slowed investment sales and a sizeable increase in available sublease space in recent months. Local tenants with smaller footprints have been the driving force behind leasing activity and the market’s positive net absorption, with most new leases signed in 2022 being 5,000 square feet and less. Meanwhile, national and corporate tenants reevaluating their space needs have brought much of the available sublease space to the market in significantly larger blocks. Uncertainty surrounding interest rates has slowed investment sales, although pricing remains healthy. With investors putting a pause on new acquisitions, owner-user purchase activity may increase as tenants seize new occupancy opportunities. New construction starts have been minimal, although redevelopment/renovation projects remain prevalent. Two new developments that have broken ground include the Kimpton, a premier Class A high rise in downtown Reno, and Renown South Meadows, a specialty care center with about 40,000 square feet available for third-party providers. Each development represents continued demand from client-facing occupiers and healthcare providers in the region. In 2022, there were 30 companies that either expanded in or relocated to Northern Nevada, according to the Economic Development Authority of Western …
By Jared Glover, Director of Investment Sales, Berkadia The Las Vegas multifamily market started to feel the effects of higher interest rates alongside persistent inflation as the third quarter ended. Thankfully, properties still experienced trade-outs and overall in-place rent growth, though year-over-year growth began to moderate, coming in near 8 percent. Loss to lease capture remains, although at a slower pace than prior quarters, with average market rent at $1,515. The third quarter also saw a 3 percent decrease in occupancy, setting at 93.6 percent, after experiencing record occupancy throughout 2021. On the transaction front, we have seen a dramatic shift in cap rates. This is a direct result of the Fed’s tightening. Within a six-month span, cap rates widened upwards of 150 basis points — from low to mid-3s to 5 and trending up, depending on product type. The homogenous nature of national cap rates in 2021, with most markets trading in the 3.5 range, seems to have shifted back to historical norms as the primary/coastal markets once again demanded a premium versus secondary or tertiary markes. Both Monterra and the Boulevard traded north of a 5 cap on in-place numbers, speaking to these latest cap rate trends. Just four months ago, a …
By Dean Willmore, Executive Vice President; Kyle Kirchmeier, Associate; Alex Stanisic, Vice President; and Laura Wilhelm, Senior Field Research Analyst, CBRE Las Vegas’ current industrial market is surprisingly resilient. There is, of course, a possibility of planned projects being put on hold or not moving forward at all due to rising inflation and economic uncertainty, but leasing activity hasn’t slowed. Regardless of never-before-seen rent growth, record-low vacancy and a marked increase in asking lease rates every 60 days, the market still may not have peaked. As of the third quarter of 2022, the average asking lease rate was $1.19 per square foot (triple net), and the overall vacancy rate remained at a very low 1 percent. However, industrial/flex space in the 2,000- to 5,000-square-foot range, which is still dealing with the effects of the pandemic, has shown no noticeable rent growth. Some landlords are even offering leasing incentives to attract tenants. If the market contracts in 2023, smaller tenants in this size range will be the first to see its effects. Nearly half of the 17 million square feet under construction during the third quarter was pre-leased, and nearly 80 percent of those projects were in North Las Vegas. The largest lease of the quarter occurred in the submarket, with …
By Cathy Jones, Founder and CEO, Sun Commercial The 2022 Las Vegas retail market can be characterized by a generally positive outlook and some strong trends, even in the face of market uncertainty. A few of these core trends are quite interesting. Market research shows significant upward trends in asking rents, decreases in vacancy and certain key indicators driving this process. When broken down further, we find that these trends are emphasized in certain geographic areas more than others. The Southwest Las Vegas Valley submarket is seeing the greatest change in growth and development, followed closely by Henderson/Southeast. As an example, 93,592 square feet of retail space was constructed in the third quarter alone in the Southwest and Henderson; 91.2 percent of this space was pre-leased. The current amount of net absorption in the total market is 1.3 million square feet year to date. Half of this annual total occurred in the Southwest and Southeast submarkets. These two markets saw an explosion of growth driven largely by the housing boom. As new developments are constructed and homes sold, retail developments expand to meet that growing demand. There is more compartmentalization, however, than in the past with more community-oriented unanchored strip centers dominating the …
By Patti Dillon, SIOR, Senior Vice President, Colliers While the key measures of the Southern Nevada economy have improved since the COVID lockdowns, some have improved more than others. The future of the office market is strong, but it will be weighted toward newer Class A mixed-use office assets. Employers are feeling the pressure to attract and retain the best talent in a tight labor market. There are plenty of vacant positions. However, available and willing workers are still scarce, which is driving the need for office locations of employers to be more inviting. According to DETR, Southern Nevada’s office job market added 24,000 jobs between May 2021 and May 2022. Unemployment in the Las Vegas-Paradise MSA was 5.2 percent in May 2022. Over the past 12 months, total employment in Southern Nevada increased by 87,100 jobs, a 3 percent increase. After experiencing a significant expansion last quarter, Southern Nevada’s office market cooled at midyear. Net absorption remained positive, at 45,443 square feet, but did not keep pace with the 129,272 square feet of new development. This lifted vacancy to 12.7 percent this quarter from 12.5 percent one quarter ago. Asking rental rates increased to $2.37 per square foot on a full-service …