After a sluggish start to the year, the Manhattan office market has experienced a strong rebound. In the second quarter, more than 10 million square feet of space was leased, the highest quarterly total since 2014, pushing year-to-date leasing activity to just over 17 million square feet. At mid-year 2018, there were 17 new leases exceeding 100,000 square feet and 35 new leases of more than 50,000 square feet. Although the economy has been at a peak for an unusually long time, the Manhattan office market has reached new highs. This presents an interesting exception to the norm, where real estate typically lags the economy, and it is good news for the market. Market Drivers While demand has come from a variety of sectors, the most recent top occupiers have come from the FIRE (financial services, insurance, and real estate), TAMI (technology, advertising, media and information), law firm and coworking sectors. Early in the year, the FIRE sector dominated large-block transactions. Examples include JPMorgan Chase’s 420,000-square-foot lease at the newly renovated 390 Madison Ave., and Bank of America Corp.’s 343,000-square-foot lease at 1100 Avenue of the Americas and 127,000-square-foot lease at 1114 Avenue of the Americas. This level of expansion …
Market Reports
As the e-commerce industry continues to grow and evolve, demand for industrial warehouse product located in dense urban areas situated with access to transit infrastructure, particularly air transit, has grown. The industrial sector has been experiencing multiple years of record rent growth, both locally in New York City and nationally, with average asking rents reaching nearly $30 per square foot in western Brooklyn and parts of Queens. This rapid rise in rents is driving property values higher and generating robust investor demand for this asset class. By way of example, the newly constructed FedEx warehouse in Maspeth, Queens recently sold for nearly $750 per square foot. Simultaneously, we are seeing the evolution and realignment of the supply chain to match a changing retail landscape. E-commerce sales have caused a 300 percent increase in the demand for logistics and distribution spaces, as opposed to traditional brick-and-mortar retail locations. The impact of e-commerce will only continue to accelerate, and the need for new industrial product will grow along with it. For every $1 billion increase in e-commerce sales, an additional 1 million square feet of distribution space will be required. And it’s not solely e-commerce companies that are starting to think about …
Real estate experts continue to keep a close eye on the Manhattan retail market in 2018. Having wrapped up 2017 with challenges and opportunities for landlords and tenants alike, it appears the biggest strides toward adjusting to new conditions are behind us, though further rent adjustments are never out of the mix. At year-end 2017, average asking rents across Manhattan’s 16 main retail corridors declined by 18.4 percent, compared to those from year-end 2016, while availabilities ticked up slightly. Leasing velocity was strong in 2017 with 2.6 million square feet of transactions closing during the year, posting a year-over-year increase of 8.2 percent. Food and beverage tenants dominated the market in terms of deal volume, inking 172 leases (the most in Manhattan) at year-end 2017, which encompassed nearly 556,000 square feet. The apparel industry also posted strong numbers in 2017, leasing 459,200 square feet of space across 91 deals. 2017 data shows that SoHo was the most active neighborhood in terms of square footage leased (approximately 227,000 square feet) and the number of closed deals (43). The neighborhood outpaced the runner up, Midtown West, by more than 60,000 square feet. After suffering from consistently high vacancy rates, SoHo is …
In 2017, the multifamily investment sales market in New York City followed the trends seen within the broader market with sales volumes dropping while property values were mixed. The year ended on a high note with regard to contract execution activity, which bodes well for sales volume in 2018. This year, we expect volumes to rise while values bottom out and start to climb by the end of the year as positive movements in fundamentals start to exert upward pressure on property values. With regard to the number of properties sold, there were 1,215 apartment buildings sold last year, down 19 percent from the 1,507 that were sold in 2016. The elevator building sector, which we differentiate from walk-up buildings as a separate asset class, performed better with 235 sales, down 14 percent from the 273 elevator buildings that were sold in 2016. In the walk-up sector, there were 980 sales, down 21 percent from the 1,234 walk-up buildings that were sold in 2016. If we compare the Manhattan submarket to the outer boroughs, we see that activity in the outer boroughs held up much better than in Manhattan. In the outer boroughs, elevator building sales dropped by 13 percent …
The office market in 2017 has rebounded from the slowdown of 2016 — suggesting that Manhattan market conditions remain stronger than some might have imagined at the end of last year. Growth in office-using employment has picked up steam this year, and New York’s Gross City Product expanded at a faster rate than in 2016. Buoyed by large transactions in the financial services and government sectors, leasing activity also expanded in the first half of 2017, outpacing 2016’s mid-year leasing activity by 19 percent. Asking rents continued their trajectory of modest growth, though tenant improvement allowances have grown at a far faster rate, suggesting tenants are paying lower net effective rent; meanwhile, the number of upward repricings on existing listings fell off considerably in the first half of 2017, while downward repricings continue unabated from last year. Despite the increase in both leasing activity and velocity in the first half of 2017, Manhattan continues to see negative net absorption this year, largely due to the delivery of new office product in Midtown South and Downtown. This has pushed up the availability rate to 12.0 percent — suggesting increasingly tenant-favorable conditions in the market. New York City Employment After a relatively …
As America’s brick-and-mortar retail sector continues to come to grips with the impact of e-commerce on its long-term future, it is worthwhile to track the progress of the growing number of retailers who have chosen to step away from a web-only platform. These retailers are establishing an omni-channel presence by setting up operations in physical stores, and many are showing signs of success. Many such retailers are choosing to set up shop along the streets of New York City, with its massive and steadily growing population and its broad demographic mix. Despite the recent, well-publicized increase in the city’s available inventory of retail space, New York City remains the preferred market to launch a brand with aspirations of building a meaningful national profile. Considering the more-youthful and trendy profile of a large proportion of online shoppers, these “adding-bricks-to-our-clicks” companies are gravitating toward New York City submarkets that deliver this coveted, younger demographic. Moreover, e-commerce players possess a ton of data profiling their customers — including their buying behavior and their browsing interests and habits — and retailers tap this intelligence when making decisions about where to locate stores as well as how they should be merchandised to best cater to …
A trend in retail activity in Western New York and the Finger Lakes Region over the past six to 12 months has been the announcement or arrival of a number of high-end or specialty retailers and restaurants. Although traditionally these retailers are more selective about the markets they enter, as they continue to grow nationally they have to expand the list of potential markets they will consider. Some of them find that the Buffalo and Rochester metropolitan areas are markets in which high-end or specialty retailers or restaurants can thrive, particularly when Upstate New York’s lower occupancy costs and lighter competition are sufficient to offset potentially lower unit volumes. Whole Foods’ much-anticipated Western New York debut will be this summer in the Northtown redevelopment project by W.S. Development in Amherst. Whole Foods has also signed a lease in Brighton, a suburb of Rochester, for a 50,000-square-foot store at Palazzo Plaza, a proposed 90,000-square-foot shopping center on Monroe Avenue at Interstate 590. The project, being developed by the Daniele Family Companies, is currently making its way through the entitlement process. In a sign of the renaissance in progress in both Downtown Buffalo and Downtown Rochester, the first-ever national brand polished steakhouse …
As the U.S. economy passes through the third largest expansion cycle in the economic history, every sector in the economy has seen phenomenal growth over the last six to seven years. The growth in other industries has had a trickle-down effect on the real estate sector. U.S. real estate has seen rents surging and even surpassing the previous expansion cycle, as well as an increase in leasing and absorption activity and a record rise in the value of sales transactions. Manhattan has always been at the epicenter of this real estate growth. With the combination of developed market and investment-grade properties, Manhattan has regularly attracted the majority of foreign direct investment in the real estate sector throughout the country. Increased demand from TAMI (technology, advertising, media and information) and FIRE (finance, insurance and real estate) sector tenants have made these properties an attractive investment option for both the local institutional investors and foreign direct investment. The Manhattan commercial real estate market has seen a 33 percent (see footnote 1) increase in the transactions above $1,000 per square foot over the last seven years. These values are no longer limited to only trophy properties in Midtown but have spread across both Midtown …
The news is rife with stories regarding retail bankruptcies, store closures, challenges facing conventional shopping centers, and consolidations by department and specialty stores. Although not immune to some of these challenges, the Manhattan retail environment has enjoyed much activity during the second half of 2016 and the first part of 2017. To be sure, some submarkets and certain retail corridors have seen an increase in vacancies and a corresponding fall in asking rents. However, a number of new retailers have entered the market and certain strong retail brands have right-sized or repositioned themselves in the market. One high-profile shopping center opened its doors, and there is considerable retail development underway. It’s a big story but here are some highlights. Lower Manhattan There has been considerable focus on Lower Manhattan in the past several years, and this continues. On the grand scale, the opening in August 2016 of Westfield’s World Trade Center was the culmination of years in planning, constructing and leasing this $1.4 billion development. This multi-level project contains an assortment of national and international tenants, including fast fashion and better retail stores, such as Victoria’s Secret, Sephora, H&M, John Varvatos and London Jewelers. A 60,000-square-foot Eataly is the principal …
Rochester’s story is similar to those of other cities with once prominent downtowns. Starting in the 1970s, businesses and families largely fled to the suburbs as newer and nicer suburban offices were built. Larger companies, including many staple downtown dwellers such as large law and accounting firms, left the downtown in search of free parking, shorter commutes and a suburban lifestyle for their employees. Yet Rochester was a small city with big businesses. Bausch & Lomb was founded in Rochester in 1853. Eastman Kodak started business there in 1888 and beginning in 1906, Xerox Corporation was formed. Kodak is still based in Rochester, though it is a much smaller entity than it was before the digital era, and Xerox moved to Norwalk, Connecticut, years ago. However, the core technology culture never left Rochester. Over the past few years the University of Rochester — the area’s largest employer — received more than $1.9 billion in research money, most of it from the federal government. Organizations like High Tech Rochester, Greater Rochester Enterprise and the Rochester Downtown Innovation Zone have played important roles in the region’s comeback. In 2015, the Rochester region won a nationwide competition and was named the site for …