It’s no secret that the Sunbelt states have been, and continue to be, the front-runners for corporations looking to relocate to cities with a much lower cost of doing business. With each state taking different approaches, North Carolina does not often offer the relocation incentives that can be found in states such as South Carolina and Texas. Instead, North Carolina favors a system that offers less up-front cash incentives, but tries to offset that with a tax structure and business-friendly climate in an effort to compete for the large, attractive relocations. Because of this, the catalyst for growth in Charlotte has only been moderately associated with the recruitment of out-of-market users looking to relocate headquarters to more affordable and attractive markets. In large part, Charlotte’s growth has been driven by organic growth of existing businesses. In fact, more than 70 percent of the positive absorption in the central business district (CBD) since 2010 has occurred through organic growth. This expansion of existing business has provided for employment growth conditions that work hand-in-hand with the rapidly swelling population. In between new-to-market relocations that provide headline-grabbing bursts of employment, the diverse and impressive growth of Charlotte’s existing companies has attracted talent and …
Market Reports
As 2015 begins, the Raleigh-Durham market continues to see heavy investment and development interest in the multifamily sector. Strong fundamentals, including an influx of young professionals lured by healthy job growth, an emergent live-work-play atmosphere and an economy that has continued to outpace its national counterpart, justify the area’s reign as one of the most attractive non-gateway markets in the country. The healthy, long-term fundamentals are challenged by an apartment construction pipeline that is among the nation’s most active, but so far the market is performing remarkably well. Construction starts in the area have exploded during the last two years, and there are now 8,835 units under construction throughout the Triangle area, with an additional 4,919 units proposed, according to Real Data. Whether demand can keep up with supply has been a widely debated topic among real estate analysts. The high number of units delivered represents an increase in supply of 9.3 percent over the past 24 months. Strong demand has shielded the region from notable occupancy declines. In the first half of 2014, 2,453 units were absorbed and 2,642 new units were completed, providing a differential of only 189 units, according to Real Data. Average vacancy ticked up to …
The Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill (Research Triangle) region has entered a period of vibrant market expansion. Overall Class A vacancy has fallen below 10 percent for the first time since the building boom of 2001, with rates as low as 2.2 percent in some of the region’s most desirable submarkets, where severe shortages have absorption extending into long-stagnant Class B product. Despite this auspicious environment for new construction, developers are still exercising substantial caution, underscoring the depth of the last downturn and its long-lasting impact on both the development and lending communities. However, recent successful Class A deliveries by REITs like Raleigh-based Highwoods Properties and Indianapolis-based Duke Realty signal a shift toward a more pronounced supply cycle, with lower pre-lease thresholds, and a Class A market that is clearly transitioning from a recovery cycle to a period of low supply. As the market picks up steam, here are three trends that we see emerging in the Raleigh-Durham office market, and the implications for the MSA going forward. The Rise of Live-Work-Play In the last decade, no trend has had a greater impact than the rise of the live-work-play model, a phrase that encapsulates many meanings, but always embodies the high value placed …
Triangle’s Buoyant Economy Gives Confidence to Industrial Real Estate Investors, Developers
by John Nelson
2014 was an exceptional year for sales and leasing activity for the Raleigh-Durham industrial market. Velocity in investment sales boomed in 2014 — the strongest year since 2006, and second strongest in history. Developers are actively seeking land to build new parks as demand for Class A industrial space outweighs supply and rental rates begin to rise. Although, the Raleigh-Durham MSA is a smaller industrial market in the region, it’s been ranked No. 1 by Forbes as the Best Place for Business and No. 2 for the Fastest Growing Large U.S. City from 2010-2030 by the United Nations Population Division. Companies continue to announce corporate relocations and expansions and unemployment is lower than the national average at 4.5 percent in October. EDM America relocated its $150 million headquarters operation to Raleigh from Pennsylvania. Argos Therapeutics announced an expansion project in Durham — a $57 million bio-manufacturing plant. The area has also seen an influx of third-party logistics companies, moving companies and suppliers for the home building industry opening new locations and consolidating to larger blocks of space. As user demand continues, there is a strong desire by investors to become a part of our market or expand their current footprint. …
The Raleigh/Durham/Chapel Hill Triangle has captured national attention as a powerhouse of innovation and economic growth for many years, winning a steady stream of accolades for growth, technology, entrepreneurial drive and quality of life. So it comes as no surprise that while some parts of the country are still limping along in what has been the longest and most tepid recovery in recent memory, the Triangle is booming. Indeed, it’s hard to find a metric that shows the region as anything less than thriving. The unemployment rate declined sharply over the past year, down over 2 percentage points from the first quarter of 2013 to 5.1 percent in April 2014, and the region has been adding jobs — more than 26,000 nonfarm jobs in the past four quarters and 7,700 in March 2014 alone. As a result, the region’s industrial market is rapidly accelerating. Raleigh-Durham has consistently placed in the top 10 fastest growing MSAs since 1980, and the Triangle’s industrial market is primarily geared toward providing goods and services for the burgeoning local population, ensuring that demand for institutional-grade industrial product remains strong. This dynamic has also created a tendency toward a high degree of diversification, and both factors …
As the first quarter of 2014 comes to a close, the biggest question mark facing the Charlotte market is whether or not it can handle the historically high supply levels. Despite nearly 3,500 units delivered over the past 12 months, vacancy has held steady, and rents have continued to grow by 2 to 3 percent. But with another 10,000 units under construction, Charlotte is at a critical juncture. With the pipeline at an all-time high and new projects being announced seemingly every week, will there be enough continued demand to absorb the next wave of deliveries? The ability to absorb the pending supply is largely based on the area’s favorable demographic trends and potential job growth. Between 2000 and 2010, Mecklenburg County’s population grew by 32 percent, over three times the national average, and that trend has continued with more than 7 percent growth since 2010, including the second-highest growth rate in the state from 2012 to 2013. Moreover, since 2010, Mecklenburg and Wake (Raleigh/Durham) counties have accounted for nearly half of the state’s overall population increase. That pattern mirrors a national trend of a growing desire to live in an urban environment. That paradigm shift is largely based on …
The Charlotte market is emerging from the sluggish economy of the last several years and is booming with economic and commercial activity. In fact, Forbes recently recognized Charlotte as the fourth fastest growing city since the recession. The retail market is no exception and is continuing to improve with tenant activity increasing and vacancy rates dropping. From desirable South Charlotte to Independence Boulevard, new projects are coming out of the ground in an effort to meet the needs of the tenants in the market that are struggling to find locations. The suburban markets are seeing increased growth as people continue to move to Charlotte. South Charlotte continues to be the most desirable market for tenants, but limited availability has been a problem. The new Waverly project, a joint venture between Crosland Southeast and Childress Klein, will help to provide some options for tenants looking to expand into South Charlotte. Waverly will be located at the intersection of Providence Road and I-485 and is a 90-acre, master-planned development anchored by Whole Foods. The project will deliver in 2016 and consists of more than 230,000 square feet of retail space in addition to 330,000 square feet of office and medical space, a …
The year 2013 marked a turning point for the Triangle office market. While overall vacancy remains stubbornly high, ending the third quarter at 17.2 percent, Class A vacancy is rapidly approaching equilibrium, spurring increased investment and development activity in the region. A lack of new construction in recent years has led to a shortage of large blocks of prime office space. Class A vacancy ended the third quarter at 13.7 percent, down by 260 basis points year-over-year. As a result, owners of select properties are finding themselves with more leverage, and tenants are increasingly turning to their second and third choices when securing space. This lack of quality options kept a lid on absorption through most of 2013. Annual absorption stood at just 107,306 square feet through the third quarter, well below historical norms for a recovering market. This figure, however, is not a true reflection of leasing activity. Faced with limited choices, some growing and new-to-market tenants turned to developers, preleasing 700,000 square feet and driving a wave of new construction activity in the second half of the year. Duke Realty broke ground on two new office buildings in the I-40/RTP submarket. Perimeter Two and Perimeter Three will total …
The Raleigh industrial market dipped slightly in the third quarter of 2013 with negative net absorption, yet overall it improved from a year earlier, in part because of the general health of the North Carolina economy. Four factors are pushing the state’s economic recovery: a manufacturing revival, a construction surge, a boost of college graduates who are attracting knowledge-based industries and an influx of retirees, according to Dr. Michael L. Walden, a North Carolina State University professor and author of a report on the North Carolina economy that was published in the summer of 2013. The combination of factors led Dr. Walden to forecast that North Carolina’s Research Triangle, which includes Raleigh, would have an unemployment rate below 6 percent by the end of 2014. Ironically, some of the positive news for the state’s economy is putting pressure on the region’s industrial marketplace and driving these trends in Raleigh: • Net positive migration and population growth, year-after-year • The loss of industrial development opportunities to the homebuilding industry • Local pressure to prioritize live/work/play environments and de-emphasize industrial development • Constrained land supply • A lack of institutional grade space Consistently ranked by Forbes as one of the best places …
The Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill market, known as the Triangle, has long been viewed as a market favorable for investors, due to very strong demand metrics. The state capital’s thriving economy and excellent demand drivers have made it a prime renter destination and the new darling for yield-chasing institutional investors. A skilled workforce, transitional student renter pool and national trend of millennials “de-nesting” have continued to keep the apartment market strong and attract institutional investors such as Redwood Capital Group, Guardian Life Insurance and Heitman. As one of the most active firms in the Carolinas, Cassidy Turley has witnessed the transition firsthand as the Triangle has transformed from a regional player into a national powerhouse that has attracted some of the world’s most savvy institutional groups. According to Reis, the apartment vacancy rate in the third quarter of 2013 stood at 3.9 percent, well below the greater South Atlantic region’s average of 4.9 percent. Furthermore, the vacancy rate has actually decreased 20 basis points since last quarter, demonstrating the strong momentum of the local market and the appeal to institutional investors. Contributing factors include: A 20 percent population growth in the Triangle over the last decade The area boasts a total student …