As the first quarter of 2014 comes to a close, the biggest question mark facing the Charlotte market is whether or not it can handle the historically high supply levels. Despite nearly 3,500 units delivered over the past 12 months, vacancy has held steady, and rents have continued to grow by 2 to 3 percent. But with another 10,000 units under construction, Charlotte is at a critical juncture. With the pipeline at an all-time high and new projects being announced seemingly every week, will there be enough continued demand to absorb the next wave of deliveries? The ability to absorb the pending supply is largely based on the area’s favorable demographic trends and potential job growth. Between 2000 and 2010, Mecklenburg County’s population grew by 32 percent, over three times the national average, and that trend has continued with more than 7 percent growth since 2010, including the second-highest growth rate in the state from 2012 to 2013. Moreover, since 2010, Mecklenburg and Wake (Raleigh/Durham) counties have accounted for nearly half of the state’s overall population increase. That pattern mirrors a national trend of a growing desire to live in an urban environment. That paradigm shift is largely based on …
Market Reports
The Charlotte market is emerging from the sluggish economy of the last several years and is booming with economic and commercial activity. In fact, Forbes recently recognized Charlotte as the fourth fastest growing city since the recession. The retail market is no exception and is continuing to improve with tenant activity increasing and vacancy rates dropping. From desirable South Charlotte to Independence Boulevard, new projects are coming out of the ground in an effort to meet the needs of the tenants in the market that are struggling to find locations. The suburban markets are seeing increased growth as people continue to move to Charlotte. South Charlotte continues to be the most desirable market for tenants, but limited availability has been a problem. The new Waverly project, a joint venture between Crosland Southeast and Childress Klein, will help to provide some options for tenants looking to expand into South Charlotte. Waverly will be located at the intersection of Providence Road and I-485 and is a 90-acre, master-planned development anchored by Whole Foods. The project will deliver in 2016 and consists of more than 230,000 square feet of retail space in addition to 330,000 square feet of office and medical space, a …
The year 2013 marked a turning point for the Triangle office market. While overall vacancy remains stubbornly high, ending the third quarter at 17.2 percent, Class A vacancy is rapidly approaching equilibrium, spurring increased investment and development activity in the region. A lack of new construction in recent years has led to a shortage of large blocks of prime office space. Class A vacancy ended the third quarter at 13.7 percent, down by 260 basis points year-over-year. As a result, owners of select properties are finding themselves with more leverage, and tenants are increasingly turning to their second and third choices when securing space. This lack of quality options kept a lid on absorption through most of 2013. Annual absorption stood at just 107,306 square feet through the third quarter, well below historical norms for a recovering market. This figure, however, is not a true reflection of leasing activity. Faced with limited choices, some growing and new-to-market tenants turned to developers, preleasing 700,000 square feet and driving a wave of new construction activity in the second half of the year. Duke Realty broke ground on two new office buildings in the I-40/RTP submarket. Perimeter Two and Perimeter Three will total …
The Raleigh industrial market dipped slightly in the third quarter of 2013 with negative net absorption, yet overall it improved from a year earlier, in part because of the general health of the North Carolina economy. Four factors are pushing the state’s economic recovery: a manufacturing revival, a construction surge, a boost of college graduates who are attracting knowledge-based industries and an influx of retirees, according to Dr. Michael L. Walden, a North Carolina State University professor and author of a report on the North Carolina economy that was published in the summer of 2013. The combination of factors led Dr. Walden to forecast that North Carolina’s Research Triangle, which includes Raleigh, would have an unemployment rate below 6 percent by the end of 2014. Ironically, some of the positive news for the state’s economy is putting pressure on the region’s industrial marketplace and driving these trends in Raleigh: • Net positive migration and population growth, year-after-year • The loss of industrial development opportunities to the homebuilding industry • Local pressure to prioritize live/work/play environments and de-emphasize industrial development • Constrained land supply • A lack of institutional grade space Consistently ranked by Forbes as one of the best places …
The Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill market, known as the Triangle, has long been viewed as a market favorable for investors, due to very strong demand metrics. The state capital’s thriving economy and excellent demand drivers have made it a prime renter destination and the new darling for yield-chasing institutional investors. A skilled workforce, transitional student renter pool and national trend of millennials “de-nesting” have continued to keep the apartment market strong and attract institutional investors such as Redwood Capital Group, Guardian Life Insurance and Heitman. As one of the most active firms in the Carolinas, Cassidy Turley has witnessed the transition firsthand as the Triangle has transformed from a regional player into a national powerhouse that has attracted some of the world’s most savvy institutional groups. According to Reis, the apartment vacancy rate in the third quarter of 2013 stood at 3.9 percent, well below the greater South Atlantic region’s average of 4.9 percent. Furthermore, the vacancy rate has actually decreased 20 basis points since last quarter, demonstrating the strong momentum of the local market and the appeal to institutional investors. Contributing factors include: A 20 percent population growth in the Triangle over the last decade The area boasts a total student …
The Raleigh industrial market dipped slightly in the third quarter of 2013 with negative net absorption, yet overall it improved from a year earlier, in part because of the general health of the North Carolina economy. Four factors are pushing the state’s economic recovery: a manufacturing revival, a construction surge, a boost of college graduates who are attracting knowledge-based industries and an influx of retirees, according to Dr. Michael L. Walden, a North Carolina State University professor and author of a report on the North Carolina economy that was published in the summer of 2013. The combination of factors led Dr. Walden to forecast that North Carolina’s Research Triangle, which includes Raleigh, would have an unemployment rate below 6 percent by the end of 2014. Ironically, some of the positive news for the state’s economy is putting pressure on the region’s industrial marketplace and driving these trends in Raleigh: • Net positive migration and population growth, year-after-year • The loss of industrial development opportunities to the homebuilding industry • Local pressure to prioritize live/work/play environments and de-emphasize industrial development • Constrained land supply • A lack of institutional grade space Consistently ranked by Forbes as one of the best places …
The Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill market, known as the Triangle, has long been viewed as a market favorable for investors, due to very strong demand metrics. The state capital’s thriving economy and excellent demand drivers have made it a prime renter destination and the new darling for yield-chasing institutional investors. A skilled workforce, transitional student renter pool and national trend of millennials “de-nesting” have continued to keep the apartment market strong and attract institutional investors such as Redwood Capital Group, Guardian Life Insurance and Heitman. As one of the most active firms in the Carolinas, Cassidy Turley has witnessed the transition firsthand as the Triangle has transformed from a regional player into a national powerhouse that has attracted some of the world’s most savvy institutional groups. According to Reis, the apartment vacancy rate in the third quarter of 2013 stood at 3.9 percent, well below the greater South Atlantic region’s average of 4.9 percent. Furthermore, the vacancy rate has actually decreased 20 basis points since last quarter, demonstrating the strong momentum of the local market and the appeal to institutional investors. Contributing factors include: • A 20 percent population growth in the Triangle over the last decade • The area boasts a …
With the third quarter results in, all signs point to continued incremental improvement of the Charlotte office market. Vacancy rates have fallen to a four-year low and investment sales activity continues to strengthen as new capital sources enter the market. On the economic front, unemployment in Charlotte continues to lag behind some other North Carolina cities at 9.5 percent, but the city is experiencing positive economic movement in other measures, particularly single-family housing and retail sales. For some long-term perspective, the labor force in Charlotte has grown 22 percent during the past 10 years, nearly three times the national rate. Additionally, in August, the population of Mecklenburg County reached 1 million people. With a population of approximately 2.3 million, Charlotte maintains its position as the largest MSA in the Carolinas. Office Market Conditions With a reported 460,000 square feet of positive net absorption in the third quarter, the overall office vacancy rate has fallen to approximately 15.7 percent, the lowest rate since 2008. Correspondingly, rental rates have continued to increase, with overall average rates reaching $22.55 per square foot ($23.59 for Class A space), the highest rates in the past four years. While much of this tightening has occurred in …
Charlotte's retail sector has been robust with activity in the past several months, with positive signs on the horizon. Residential development in Charlotte has been driving a rise in retail projects, particularly in the city’s infill areas, such as SouthPark and the South End. For instance, more than 1,200 apartment units are under construction or planned in the South End area. This has led to more urbanized retail, including a 55,000-square-foot Publix that is under construction on four acres at South Boulevard and Iverson Way. The site will also include structured parking and additional shops. Publix has also announced a new location in Ballantyne Town Center, located at Providence Road West and Johnston Road, which is scheduled to open in early 2014. When Harris Teeter announced that it had hired JP Morgan to sell the company, rumors were rampant and there has been a lot of speculation that Publix was a likely buyer. Most industry insiders do not think that this is likely, so it will be interesting to see how this dynamic plays out. In the meantime, Publix continues to scour opportunities for new locations throughout the Charlotte market, adding a new player in the highly competitive grocery sector. …
Charlotte has become one of the most desirable and sought-after investment markets in the nation with a diverse economy fueling job growth, attracting new talent and enticing investors. In fact, Charlotte had the largest population growth rate for urban areas of 1 million people or more in the decade from 2000 to 2010 and is expected to increase its population by another quarter-million people by 2020, fueled by diverse industries such as banking, energy, healthcare, manufacturing and transportation. With 37,000 jobs created in 2012, Charlotte’s employment has added back every job lost during the recent recession, eclipsing its previous high-water mark set in 2007. Approximately 50 companies have announced major expansions or relocations in the Charlotte area over the past year-and-a-half. Highlights include Metlife announcing plans to establish a hub for its U.S. retail business in Charlotte bringing 1,300 jobs to the city and Convergys, the business process outsourcing giant, announced plans to create 1,600 jobs. From a multifamily operations perspective, the Charlotte MSA has seen outstanding performance over the last two years with both total occupancy and average rents at their highest levels in the past 10 years. With current occupancy levels above 95 percent (increased by approximately 490 …