Market Reports

By Jeff Bender, Cushman & Wakefield Cincinnati and Northern Kentucky have the same logistical advantages they’ve always had, with their location within a day’s drive of two-thirds of the U.S. population, allowing reach and penetration to major metro areas. With those advantages, the region has enjoyed a robust industrial market, similar to most key markets in the country.  Lessons learned from the pandemic, the pending opening of a nearly 1 million-square-foot e-commerce national air hub and growth of the Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky Airport (CVG) will truly differentiate the market from an occupier’s perspective. What’s more, that increased demand and Cincinnati’s topographical constraints, creating new supply limitations, will continue to make it a darling of institutional investors. Quick delivery model Amazon’s presence and $1.5 billion investment near the airport and Cincinnati’s central location place it in a prime spot for fulfillment, a big demand driver over the next decade. For example, let’s say you need to buy or repair a laptop, smart phone, tablet or any other electronic device. The order for a new computer could be fulfilled the next day most anywhere in the world even if the order is placed late in the evening. With a repair, you box it …

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By Noah Juran, NorthMarq Cincinnati remains a highly sought-after market for multifamily investors as the U.S. emerges from the COVID-19 pandemic. The Cincinnati area’s apartment market fundamentals, including rent growth, rent collections and occupancy levels, are holding up well.  Significant amounts of capital — including local, out-of-state and international — are aggressively seeking to be deployed into multifamily assets, which continues to drive up pricing. Multifamily has outperformed many other commercial real estate sectors during COVID, as many investors consider it a safe-haven investment. However, a lack of inventory for sale is slowing transaction activity. COVID-19 impact While delinquencies increased in 2020 due to pandemic-related layoffs and furloughs, many apartment owners in Cincinnati recorded strong rent performance, especially those properties that are well-managed and efficiently screen tenants. There was an eviction moratorium in Ohio, but it had a minimal impact. Workforce housing properties with lower-income tenants experienced the most negative effects during the pandemic. Many operators in Cincinnati and throughout the Midwest recorded collections at or above 90 percent, which is typical. Owners may have had a couple of tenants who requested rent relief or deferred payments, but after the dust settled, most borrowers, owners and operators did not experience …

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By Harlan Reichle, Reichle Klein Group As the Toledo, Ohio, area’s retail market proved to be stable and solid in the second half of 2020 and the industrial market continued a remarkable stretch of high performance since the Great Recession, 2020 was a tough year for the office market. However, all three property types have yet to register any negative COVID impact in our latest survey results. Retail Toledo’s retail market proved to be quite stable and solid during the second half of 2020. Given the fraught last year along with the headlines and travails of retail stores, gyms and restaurants, the general public might find this result surprising, but it was clear to our retail leasing brokers since mid-summer 2020 that transaction activity was snapping back fairly quickly after the initial shock of the spring 2020 lockdowns. Our year-end 2020 market survey found overall market vacancy down from both the end of 2019 and mid-year 2020. The decline in anchor vacancy more than offset a small increase among inline spaces as the market absorbed 39,183 square feet of space in the last six months of the year. It is a nearly exact repeat of the market’s performance in the …

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By Ryan Duling and Andy Warnock, Lument Sizing up the Columbus, Ohio multifamily market is more challenging than it may seem to the casual observer. Neither fish nor fowl, Columbus doesn’t fit comfortably within the definitions of either growth or high-yield markets. Looked at from one angle, it appears largely suburban and conventional, but from another, increasingly sophisticated and demographically youthful. The presence of large institutions in the economic landscape — banks, healthcare systems, state government, universities — lend Columbus a slightly plodding image, but the heartbeat of the local economy is a dynamic group of middle market concerns punching above their weight class in logistics, professional services, retail and the digital spectrum. Metaphorically, it’s the cousin you considered a bit dull growing up who blossomed into an adult success. C-Bus’s relatively low population density, younger demographics and the relative ease of its transition to the work-from-home environment paid hefty dividends during the pandemic. Because infection and hospitalization rates were lower than average, the local economy was able to return to near normal in February, positioning the market to take full advantage of the stimulus-fueled economic recovery that could find its stride this summer. Labor market weathers pandemic Although COVID …

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By Brian Leonard and Mark Volkman Tides are changing throughout the U.S. as companies work to confront COVID-19 and its implications on the national supply chain. Changing consumer preferences are forcing businesses to reevaluate their current supply chain and diversify their sources of supply. Since COVID-19, retailers across the country have experienced a 54 percent increase in online sales. This shows the value shoppers place on convenience and accessibility — the only missing factor from online shopping is the immediacy of a physical store. As a result, 51 percent of global retailers now offer same-day shipping to available areas, and 65 percent plan to offer same-day delivery services within a year. These factors, combined with the expectations of a “next normal,” will require fulfillment centers to be positioned close to customers to ensure timely deliveries. And finding a well-equipped, centrally located space can be a challenge. Luckily for investors, the Cincinnati market is emerging as a destination for warehouse and fulfillment centers. Cincinnati is nationally recognized for its accessibility to major markets, talented workforce and plentiful intermodal properties. Because of these reasons, major retailers like Wayfair and Hayneedle are dominating the market, making larger footprints harder to come by. Here …

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By Steve Nowak, Siegel Jennings Co. A recent decision from an Ohio appeals court highlights a developing and troubling pattern in the state’s property tax valuation appeals. In a number of cases, an appraiser’s misuse of the highest and best use concept has led to extreme overvaluations. Given its potential to grossly inflate tax liabilities, property owners and well-known tenants need to be aware of this alarming trend and how to best respond. In the recently decided case, a property used as a McDonald’s restaurant in Northeast Ohio received widely varied appraisals. The county assessor, in the ordinary course of setting values, assessed the value at $1.3 million. Then a Member of the Appraisal Institute (MAI) appraiser hired by the property owner calculated a value of $715,000. Another MAI appraiser, this one hired by the county assessor, set the value at $1.9 million. The average of the two MAI appraisals equals $1.3 million, closely mirroring the county’s initial value. Despite the property owner having met its burden of proof at the first hearing level, the county board of revision rejected the property owner’s evidence without analysis or explanation. The owner then appealed to the Ohio Board of Tax Appeals (BTA). …

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By Lynette Reichle, Reichle Klein Group On March 12, Ohio’s governor declared a state-wide order closing schools and gatherings of over 100 people. On March 15, he ordered all bars and restaurants to close dining rooms (but could maintain carryout and delivery) with further closings on almost a daily basis. Finally, the stay-at-home order came on the 22nd. As of the writing of this article, it is difficult to estimate the full effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and what the moves our government has taken to protect us will have on our real estate markets. Prior to the spread of the coronavirus, Toledo’s industrial real estate market had been running at unprecedented high levels in both leasing activity and new development for the past several years. While the beginning of this year was decidedly quiet compared with the fourth quarter of 2019, we had every reason to expect strong demand for industrial properties through the remainder of 2020. In fact, the Toledo market still suffers from an inventory problem; virtually every project that was built last year was a build-to-suit. Local and regional developers have yet to develop enough of an appetite to build speculatively. Further, no one in the …

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Columbus continues to be a powerhouse in the industrial market of the Midwest. Fueling this growth are its strategic logistics location as well as being the Ohio state capital and home to eight colleges and universities in central Ohio. Job creation in Columbus remains ahead of Ohio with employment expanding nearly 22 percent since 2010, twice the state’s rate of expansion. The region’s largest employers include The Ohio State University, OhioHealth, JP Morgan Chase and Nationwide Mutual Services. These companies employ nearly 100,000 in central Ohio. Columbus is also one of the hottest housing markets in the nation, with overall median sales prices increasing 7.6 percent over 2018 and sellers receiving, on average, 98.7 percent of the last list price at sale. Columbus has a greater access to the U.S. market within a 10-hour drive than any other major metropolitan area in the country. The area has access to 46 percent  of the U.S. population within a 10-hour truck drive. This proximity continues to attract large corporations to the area, including Amazon, Facebook, Google and Walmart, who are all occupying new distribution and data centers in the region. The market’s industrial vacancy rate of 5 percent  at the end of …

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As a whole, commercial real estate in Columbus has experienced high levels of activity in recent years, and the office market has been no exception. The amount of new office space hitting the market has kept vacancy and average rental rates relatively flat, pacing the economic growth of the region. The vacancy rate has hovered around 6 to 7 percent, and the average rental rates are around $18 to $19 per square foot on a gross basis. Developers in the region are anticipating continued growth, so there is an additional 830,000 square feet of office space currently under construction. With that amount of new construction, we don’t expect the vacancy or rental rates to change dramatically in the coming year. Let’s look at the trends driving these numbers. Population, economic growth Columbus continues to grow quickly. Columbus offers residents a low cost of living, great drivability, plenty of amenities and economic opportunity. Since 2010, the metro area has grown by 10.8 percent, adding over 200,000 people, which makes Columbus the 14th-largest city in the United States with over 2 million total residents. The population growth hasn’t slowed down; from 2017 to 2018, the area grew 1.2 percent, and forecasts expect …

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For the year ending in March, multifamily vacancy in the Cleveland metro area tightened to the lowest level since 2016, keeping annual rent growth climbing. Measured supply gains amid increased renter demand over the past four quarters have resulted in steady vacancy and rent improvement. These trends should continue over the next several quarters, holding vacancy below the 5 percent threshold. Favorable apartment operations are capturing investor attention. Demand for apartments is coming from an increase in employment that is allowing more people to move into rentals. Employers added roughly 14,200 positions year over year in May, nearly double the previous year’s growth. Another encouraging sign for Cleveland is that most employment sectors added jobs during this period. The heightened hiring has kept the unemployment rate below 5 percent for the past five months and the rate is down 80 basis points since May 2018. Education and health services is the most dominant employment sector, and the construction segment led employment gains during the past 12 months, staffing more than 5,300 new positions, followed by professional and business services with nearly 4,200 people. New apartment projects contribute to some of the construction jobs. Over the past four quarters, builders added …

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