Market Reports

Memphis Multifamily Outlook: Prepare Your War Chest

by John Nelson August 21, 2023

It’s no secret: The multifamily real estate market in Memphis has experienced a significant decline in investment sales volume and total transactions over the past year. But with signs of life coming quickly on the horizon, how can you be ready to capitalize? According to CoStar Analytics, the 58.7 percent sales volume decline in Memphis is in line with the national average, but we have seen a larger dip in total transactions. The steep and rapid decline is directly correlated to the Federal Reserve’s ongoing battle of taming inflation. The Fed has increased the benchmark federal funds rate at 10 consecutive meetings. And while there was a pause at the June meeting, more rate hikes are expected this year. What does this mean for investors and operators? The cream will rise to the top. Some investors may default on loans due to floating-rate debt and the rapid rate increases, while others may struggle to refinance or sell without incurring losses as their cheaper rate caps expire. However, those that have executed their business plans effectively and added value to their apartment complexes by raising rents can expect some cushion. Another interesting factor to examine is the vacancy rate, which has …

August 21, 2023

Market Reports Restaurant Retail Southeast Southeast Market Reports Tennessee

Memphis Retail Market Shows Grit With Several Developments in the Works

by John Nelson August 14, 2023

The term “grit” has become synonymous with Memphis. The commercial real estate landscape continues to receive headwinds from interest rates, high inflation, construction prices and geopolitical tensions, but Memphis continues to show grit in the face of these obstacles. Memphis presents a compelling opportunity for retailers seeking expansion. With a low vacancy rate of just 3.5 percent and strong occupancy levels, the city’s retail market is flourishing. The annual rent growth of 3.7 percent aligns with the national average, indicating a stable and promising environment for businesses. Moreover, Memphis offers competitive pricing for retail spaces, with affordable rates and attractive cap rates that surpass those of neighboring markets. This appealing pricing structure, coupled with a surge in transaction activity, has revitalized the market, providing increased liquidity and investment opportunities. The Regional Megasite of West Tennessee is witnessing a remarkable undertaking from Ford Motor Co. in its newly forged partnership with South Korean battery company SK Innovation. The ambitious Blue Oval City project is well underway. Currently valued at $5.6 billion and sprawling across 3,600 acres, the project is expected to generate nearly 6,000 job opportunities with another 30,000 ancillary jobs in the surrounding communities. Anticipated spillover effects from this venture …

August 14, 2023

Market Reports Multifamily Southeast Southeast Market Reports Tennessee

New Developments Fuel the Bright Future of Nashville’s Multifamily Market

by John Nelson March 13, 2023

As someone who has lived here for the past decade, I regularly hear phrases like, “It’s an exciting time to live, work and play in Nashville.” I love hearing those comments and am honored that our team plays a role in the city’s growth. However, is that optimism cooling, or is Nashville uniquely primed for continued success in the multifamily space? Following a white-hot streak of rent growth and transaction velocity during the economy’s resounding pandemic recovery, Nashville joins the rest of the nation in a transitionary period influenced by interest rate hikes and inflation. But for many reasons, our city is better prepared than most. Approximately 130,000 residents have moved to Nashville in the past five years, resulting in some of the highest apartment construction rates in the country. In fact, according to Marcus & Millichap’s Research Services division, Nashville is expected to take over the top spot for inventory growth nationwide in 2023, with roughly three-fourths of the metro’s new construction located in Nashville proper. While those numbers are certainly impressive, Marcus & Millichap’s National Multifamily Index, which ranks major markets based on forward-looking economic indicators, places Nashville in only the No. 28 position for 2023. This is …

March 13, 2023

Market Reports Retail Southeast Southeast Market Reports Tennessee

Nashville’s Retail Growth Underscores the City’s Boomtown Status

by John Nelson March 6, 2023

Nashville’s economy experienced some of the healthiest growth in the nation in 2022, with an annual job growth rate of 5.8 percent, exceeding the U.S. growth rate of 4.1 percent, based on data from Oxford Economics. Nashville also received high marks from the Urban Land Institute and PricewaterhouseCoopers, ranking as the No. 1 Market to Watch in their 2023 Emerging Trends in Real Estate report. The report credited Nashville’s tremendous and sustained population growth, and its economic diversity. Referred to as a “Supernova,” Nashville grew by an average of 5 percent since 2019 — four times faster than the national rate — due to rapid net in-migration. These fundamentals have helped boost the retail market in Nashville over the last several years. Post-pandemic, market-wide retail vacancy decreased to 3.3 percent at the end of 2022, which is two percentage points less than the rate at year-end 2020, but in line with the 15-year record low mark set in 2018. While Nashville’s retail sector took a hit along with others across the nation, it continues to rebound and perform due to a rise in dense communities where developers and owners are being strategic and thoughtful in retail curation. As such, the …

March 6, 2023

Industrial Market Reports Southeast Southeast Market Reports Tennessee

Nashville’s Industrial Market Remains Active Despite Economic Uncertainty

by John Nelson February 27, 2023

Nashville’s industrial market continues to see strong demand going into 2023. In fact, more than 1.7 million square feet of leasing activity was recorded throughout fourth-quarter 2022, bringing the year-to-date transaction volume just shy of an impressive 8.8 million square feet. Even overall vacancy sat at 3 percent during the final quarter of 2022, and while that was a slight increase compared to the previous quarter, it still was 30 basis points below the national vacancy average. Despite a recessionary environment and uncertainty of what’s next in the commercial real estate sector, Nashville’s industrial market is uniquely positioned for the upcoming year. As Nashville’s industrial market still experiences growth, there are several macro-economic trends impacting it that are worth keeping an eye on, such as e-commerce and third-party logistics demand. Interest rates have also risen, making it very tricky to value property and cap rates due to the debt markets. This has triggered limited investment activity from buyers and sellers alike across all property types, including industrial. Industrial developers are also being more cautious as rising interest rates have increased construction costs. Many developers and investors have purchased land or have land under contract, for example, but are waiting for …

February 27, 2023

Development Market Reports Southeast Southeast Market Reports Tennessee

Tennessee’s Appeal Process Allows Nashville Taxpayers to Challenge Assessments for New Construction

by John Nelson February 21, 2023

Over the past decade, Nashville has enjoyed a baffling explosion of growth that sent cranes shooting up all over the city, festooned with developer names like Bell, Clark and Giarratana. Highrise towers of glass and steel rose out of the old rail yards like the emerging monolith in the opening scene of “2001: A Space Odyssey” multiplied in a funhouse mirror. The Metropolitan Government is eager to add new projects to its tax rolls, and its Assessor of Property decides when and how that happens. The assumptions made by the assessor’s office about a project’s cost and timing dictate how quickly and how much a new building is taxed. So, as always, taxpayers need to keep an eye on what the assessor is doing. The assessor’s difficult job has become even more complicated in the post-COVID quagmire of supply chain failures. Twelve-month projects have stretched into 24-month projects, and the assessor’s assumptions about completion times have been thrown out of whack. To make matters worse, Tennessee’s property tax statutes were not designed to give relief for construction delays or lengthy projects, and now the clock is ticking. Assessing new construction The last Davidson County reappraisal was in 2021, and the …

February 21, 2023

Market Reports Multifamily Southeast Southeast Market Reports Tennessee

Memphis Economic Outlook Provides Cause for Optimism for Multifamily Market

by John Nelson August 9, 2022

Inflation is here. Is the Memphis multifamily market built to withstand it? Coming off an unprecedented year of sales volume in 2021, Memphis multifamily assets continue to be in high demand despite rising interest rates. While year-over-year sales volume might be down, the average market sale price per unit increased by 10 percent to $90,700 over the same period, as of second-quarter 2022. While overall market rent per unit growth is off double-digit highs from 2021, it is still up a sturdy 8 percent year-over-year. Strong occupancy levels, low concession rates and limited on-market supply is keeping pricing buoyant, leading to steady cap rates in the face of rising debt cost — at least for now. Capital investment and renovation to existing multifamily properties contributed greatly to both rent growth and sales volume in 2021. Memphis is a very appealing option for investors seeking value, as over 50 percent of all transactions in 2021 fell within the $40,000 to $80,000 per unit range, which is much more competitive than many primary markets. With over two-thirds of existing inventory built before 2000, the vintage of current inventory provides ample opportunities to reposition assets. Local government entities have actively played a role …

August 9, 2022

Market Reports Retail Southeast Southeast Market Reports Tennessee

Memphis Retail Market is Returning to Pre-Pandemic Norms

by John Nelson August 2, 2022

Memphis has seen a tight retail market for quality space and development opportunities since the COVID-19 pandemic. Our market sits at a 3.5 percent vacancy rate, according to CoStar Group analytics, and overall retail leasing activity is strong. Memphis has benefitted from a consumer base that is ready to return to the pre-pandemic rhythms of life. Retail sales have been healthy overall, with strong increases in sales of restaurants, particularly restaurants with a drive-thru. Rents for high-demand space have increased accordingly given the lack of quality opportunities for new-to-market or expanding retailers. Investment sales activity has been steady with an average cap rate around 7 percent, according to CoStar. Well-located and stable shopping centers are trading lower. A handful of high-profile institutional assets are either on the market or about to hit the market, and we expect those to trade at sub-7 percent cap rates. Ford Motors and SK Innovation’s new electronic vehicle (EV) and battery production facility in Stanton, Tenn., (25 miles east of Memphis) is anticipated to have a positive impact on the local economy. The $5.6 billion mega campus, called Blue Oval City, will add around 5,700 new jobs at its plant, with several more thousands indirectly …

August 2, 2022

Industrial Market Reports Southeast Southeast Market Reports Tennessee

Memphis Industrial Market Boom Continues After Record Year of Leasing, Sales

by John Nelson July 26, 2022

2021 was a banner year for the Memphis industrial market by virtually every measure. Leasing exceeded 32 million square feet, easily doubling the average of 12.8 million square feet per year; annual net absorption reached 12.7 million square feet, the highest ever recorded; 14.6 million square feet of inventory delivered to the market; rental rates reached historic highs; and investment volume topped $2.2 billion. The potent demand that carried the market to such record-setting extremes continued into the beginning of 2022, with leasing activity in the first quarter approaching 6 million square feet and net absorption surpassing 3.3 million square feet. Sustaining the steady upward trend the Memphis market has followed since the beginning of 2019, the direct vacancy rate rose 50 basis points from last year to 6.8 percent, but this increase is largely due to the profusion of spec product rather than any significant moves out of the market. In typical fashion, the bulk of leasing activity occurred in the Southeast, DeSoto County and Marshall/Fayette County submarkets, comprising more than 75 percent of the quarter’s total volume. But even the Northwest submarket has seen more action recently with the delivery of Amazon’s 181,500-square-foot last-mile facility in the Raleigh …

July 26, 2022

Industrial Market Reports Southeast Southeast Market Reports Tennessee

Nashville’s Robust Industrial Market is Growing Toward the South and East

by John Nelson April 11, 2022

After several years in the top 10, Nashville was named the No. 1 “market to watch” in overall commercial real estate prospects, according to Urban Land Institute and PwC’s 2022 Emerging Trends in Real Estate report. Nashville surpassed its supernova competitors (markets with a population between 1 million and 2 million people) such as Raleigh-Durham, Phoenix, Austin and Charlotte. The report credits Nashville’s robust and sustained job and population growth, above-average levels of economic diversity and investment/development opportunities. In short, Nashville’s economy fared relatively well during the pandemic-induced recession, and its industrial market never slowed down. Nashville has been a top location for relocating and expanding industrial-using companies, as its location is unmatched for distribution. Fifty percent of the nation’s population lives within 650 miles of Middle Tennessee, with 24 states falling within that radius. This translates to a one- or two-day truck delivery time to more than 75 percent of all U.S. markets. Additionally, it is one of only six U.S. cities with three major intersecting interstate highways. Nashville’s economy is extremely resilient due to its diversified economy. However, Nashville is not immune to national trends that have affected multiple industrial markets. The cost of construction continues to increase, …

April 11, 2022

Newer Posts

Older Posts