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IndustrialMarket ReportsMississippiOfficeSoutheastSoutheast Market ReportsTennessee

Memphis is Well-Established for Industrial Owners and Users to Win

by John Nelson

Momentum in the local industrial market has been maintained because of Memphis’ world-class infrastructure offering the “four Rs” of transportation: river, road, rail and runway. Thanks to Memphis’ central location, truck freight can reach 65 percent of the nation’s population in 24 hours. The Port of Memphis is the fifth-largest inland port in the United States and an east-west highway spans the width of the country. As home to FedEx Global Headquarters and a UPS hub, Memphis International Airport surpassed Hong Kong International Airport this year as the busiest cargo airport in the world. The direct vacancy rate of the metro industrial market went from 6.5 percent in 2020 to 4.8 percent by mid-2021. Currently, there is 13.7 million square feet of inventory under construction with over 75 percent of it being speculative. The demand and recent growth continue to improve in 2021. Net absorption is above 5.3 million square feet with tenants like Yeti, Walgreens, Hamilton Beach and Amazon moving into new facilities mid-year. Rents have also continued to rise faster than the national average in many years. The average rent growth over the past 12 months is 6.9 percent, or $4 per square foot. Large preleased facilities are …

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Affordable HousingMarket ReportsMultifamilySoutheastSoutheast Market ReportsTennessee

Robust Memphis Apartment Demand Continues to Push Rents Across Classes

by John Nelson

The Memphis multifamily market has recently captured attention from prospective buyers with some impressive statistics. With 2020 rent growth at 6.6 percent and year-to-date 2021 at 10.5 percent year-over-year, the metropolitan showed resiliency through a turbulent period as peer Sun Belt cities experienced stagnancy and even decreases in rents. This trend has put the metropolitan area on acquisition radars and garnered sales to new-to-market buyers looking to plant a flag in the market. But it raises questions concerning the longevity and sustainability of the rent growth. By taking a further look at the market’s fundamentals, economic drivers and rent trends across market segments, we can shed some light on this over-arching question. Logistics and healthcare Memphis’ stable 2020 and 2021 multifamily performance is grounded by an economy rooted in logistics and medical services. Within the Memphis metropolitan area, 42 percent of the workforce is in the transportation/logistics or education and health service industries, compared to a national aggregate of 20 percent. The growing reliance of these industries insulated the Memphis economy from the worst of repercussions stemming from the pandemic-induced recession. While quarterly wages decreased an average of 6.5 percent in peer markets in the second quarter of last year, …

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Market ReportsRetailSoutheastSoutheast Market ReportsTennessee

From Urban Core to the Suburbs, the Memphis Retail Market is Poised for Growth

by John Nelson

Memphis is a city with a soul and is internationally famous for music, food and entertainment. The city draws over 12 million tourists annually, but less publicized is that Memphis is home to six Fortune 1,000 companies (FedEx, International Paper, AutoZone, Terminix, First Horizon and Sylvamo). Additionally, the city’s employment base includes a robust healthcare community with St. Jude Children’s Research Hospital, the University of Tennessee Medical School and Regional One Health. Plus, Memphis is known as “America’s Aerotropolis” with the second busiest cargo airport in the world, Memphis International Airport. The Memphis metro statistical area (MSA) has jobs, low cost of living and a relatively young population with an average age of 34. There is a perception that the population is flocking to Nashville, but the latest Census Bureau statics show that between 2013 and 2017, slightly more Nashvillians moved to Memphis than the reverse. Memphis’ unique trade area encompasses parts of Arkansas and Mississippi, leveraging Interstates 40, 55 and 22 with the new Interstate 269 Corridor, a 60-mile half loop around southern Memphis and north Mississippi. The I-269 Corridor links to a web of seven converging highways, serving 152 metro areas and two-thirds of the nation’s population that …

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Market ReportsRestaurantRetailSoutheastSoutheast Market ReportsTennessee

Nashville Retail Market’s Investment Sales, Leasing Activity Defy Pandemic Impact

by John Nelson

In spite of national trends, news of spiking default rates and a prediction of a national decline in retail tenancy, the middle Tennessee region appears to be emerging in equal (or better) condition from one of the most unusual years in history. Prior to the government-mandated shutdowns last year, retail activity in Nashville was at a fever pitch. A decade of year-over-year population and economic growth created a strong seller’s and landlord’s market, with no end in sight. The University of Tennessee’s Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research projected a 1 million-person population growth for Middle Tennessee by 2040. This strong, sustained growth pushed retail rents up more than 50 percent since 2010 and represents one of the largest cumulative increases in the nation, behind only Miami and Austin. In 2019, the Nashville region saw asking rents above the national average, according to CoStar Group. One year ago, the sudden and unexpected COVID-19 shutdowns made the collective hearts of 2008 survivors skip a beat. A real concern of what the next week or month might look like hit both landlords and tenants in the region, particularly in the downtown retail district that is historically reliant on tourism. As music …

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Affordable HousingMarket ReportsMultifamilySeniors HousingSoutheastSoutheast Market ReportsStudent HousingTennessee

Multifamily Investors Await Clarity on Nashville’s Economic Recovery

by John Nelson

Owners and buyers remain apart on pricing. Unlike some densely populated urban areas where the extent of the damage to local commercial real estate operations is unknown, the gap in Nashville persists due to uncertainty regarding the upside potential rather than downside risks. Owners are hesitant to list properties because the metro remains a safe portion of their portfolios. If this disconnect persists, pricing will return to pre-recession levels before many other areas of the country. In the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic, multifamily transactions slowed to almost a standstill. However, transaction velocity picked back up and made a strong rebound between the third and fourth quarters of 2020. Although total sales volume dropped from $1.9 billion in 2019 to $1.6 billion in 2020, it was still the third-highest sales output since 2010 and cap rates averaged 5 percent, down 28 basis points year-over-year. California-based investors represent the lion’s share of investment activity, purchasing over $650 million of assets in Nashville in 2020. We are seeing more cities buying into Nashville such as Virginia-based Snell Properties, which purchased Retreat at Iron Horse in the Nashville suburb of Franklin for $306,000 per-unit in September. San Antonio-based Embrey developed the Class …

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Market ReportsOfficeSoutheastSoutheast Market ReportsTennessee

Nashville’s Office Pipeline Remains Robust to House Relocating, Expanding Firms

by John Nelson

In addition to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, Nashville weathered tornadoes that traveled through its core in the first quarter and a bomb explosion on 2nd Avenue North in the fourth quarter. Both catastrophes destroyed commercial properties. Despite these events last year, the fundamentals that make Nashville a strong office market remain unchanged. Nashville stays a magnet for corporate relocations, most recently attracting multiple companies from California. According to the Nashville Area Chamber of Commerce data, The Daily Wire, Design Lab, N2M Advisory and Revance Therapeutics announced relocations in the second half of 2020. These announcements encompass over 100,000 square feet of office to be occupied and 540 jobs total. Industry experts surveyed by Urban Land Institute (ULI) and PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) for the latest Emerging Trends in Real Estate report ranked Nashville as the No. 3 “Market to Watch in 2021.” This is Nashville’s sixth consecutive year in the top 10. The report credits Nashville’s attractive business climate, affordable cost of living and speed of recovery post-COVID-19. The report names Nashville as one of six new boomtowns as it’s a top in-migration market that is attracting a large share of smart young workers. Additionally, ULI and PwC acknowledge that Nashville …

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IndustrialMarket ReportsSoutheastSoutheast Market ReportsTennessee

Nashville Shifts in Location, Size to Support its Red-Hot Industrial Market

by John Nelson

“When you’re hot, you’re hot.” These old lyrics from Jerry Reed ring loud and clear these days for industrial real estate in Nashville and Middle Tennessee. Over the past five years, Nashville has been on a tear with industrial activity. At the start of 2021, Nashville appears to be pushing the fast forward button, even with COVID-19. There is a growing list of buyers, developers and users looking to enter the Nashville industrial market at unprecedented levels. With that said, can the supply of industrial product and land keep up with the demand? Where will the product be built? And what will it look like? Historically, Nashville has never seen a large supply of speculative big boxes built in comparison to our neighbors such as Memphis and Atlanta. Unless a build-to-suit, larger buildings have had a longer lease-up time in comparison to our neighboring cities. Nashville is a meat and potato market with the vast majority of our deals in the 75,000- to 150,000-square-oot range. Sure, like any market today we have seen our large third-party logistics deals with the likes of Amazon, Geodis and FedEx leading the way. Typically, our market may see one or two of these larger …

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IndustrialMarket ReportsSoutheastSoutheast Market ReportsTennessee

Leasing, Development Thrive for Memphis Industrial Market While Sales Slow

by Alex Tostado

The Memphis industrial market was off to another record-setting year for the third straight time. Then, the Mike Tyson punch no one could have ever expected came: the shutdown of the entire country. Even after sheltering in place for months and nonessential businesses out of the office until further notice, our industrial market is holding firm. The Memphis industrial market holds over 285 million square feet of useable space and offers the basic tenets for distribution. Memphis International Airport is the second largest cargo airport in the world. Additionally, Memphis is home to 400 trucking companies; it is the third-busiest trucking corridor (Interstate 40 spans from East Coast to California); it is one of only four cities to be served by five long-haul Class 1 rail systems; it has the fourth largest inland port in the country; and it has the second largest stillwater port. Memphis is also home to the FedEx worldwide hub and also houses UPS and US Postal Service hubs. All these companies operate 24 hours per day, 365 days per year. Because of this, Memphis provides the most cost-effective distribution and logistics operations in the country. And in the midst of a worldwide pandemic and shelter-in-place …

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Market ReportsOfficeSoutheastSoutheast Market ReportsTennessee

Memphis Office Market Holds Steady Amid Recovery from Pandemic

by Alex Tostado

Amid the uncertainty this year has brought, the Memphis office market’s fundamentals have continued to be stable through the end of the second quarter of 2020. Net absorption posted negative gains, recording 53,389 square feet of negative net absorption this quarter. While occupiers seeking rent relief was of minimal consequence, the steady demand allowed the total vacancy rate to decrease 80 basis points from the first quarter to 14.5 percent in the second quarter of 2020. Office tenants are continuing to pay rent on time, with less than 4 percent attrition on overall rent collection, which is no different than normal. In Memphis and the Southeast overall, leasing activity in this latest quarter was driven almost exclusively by near-term lease expirations. Similar to years past during various cycles of economic slowdowns, we are again seeing the overwhelming majority of new lease prospects limited to those companies who “have to” move, versus those companies that “want to” move. This is understandable, given the myriad of hardships caused by the pandemic and the limitation it has imposed on travel, group meetings and overall workplace usage. In fact, many companies have paused to assess their future space utilization, and whenever possible are delaying …

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Market ReportsOfficeSoutheastSoutheast Market ReportsTennessee

Office Demand Remains Robust in Nashville as New Projects Continue to Deliver

by Alex Tostado

Perhaps there is no better way to describe the Nashville office market and its progression than to examine the recent transaction history of two of Nashville’s older generation office buildings, Fifth Third Center and Bank of America/Philips Plaza. Both of these office towers are 1980s vintage with significant renovations in the last three to four years. However, no renovation can cure some of the obsolete issues with these buildings: limited parking, inefficient floorplates and old “core” locations. Nevertheless, these buildings have enjoyed rental growth, occupancy strength and consequently excellent sales transaction history. On a more macroeconomic level, investor activity remained on the rise in 2019 as Nashville has become a global real estate investment target with Nashville being in the top 10 list of markets in Urban Land Institute and PricewaterhouseCooper’s Emerging Trends report for the past five years. Nashville’s presence on this list is supported with its business-friendly environment, population growth, growing IT workforce and appeal as a leisure and meeting destination. In 2010, Nashville’s overall office vacancy rate was 12.2 percent with its Class A rents averaging $22.41 per square foot. Today, the market’s vacancy rate is 8.4 percent with Class A rents averaging $31.20. Clearly, the Nashville …

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