Market Reports

Austin Office Market’s Central Business District: Past, Present and Future

by Taylor Williams March 22, 2019

In 1987, Austin was a relatively quiet market where the major industries were higher education and state government, along with some large technology companies like IBM. Fast forward to 2019 where Austin continues to make national headlines, receiving high accolades as a top place to live and a leading city for millennial growth. This transformation — coupled with an increasing number of companies choosing to move or expand in Austin — begs the question: Why Austin? How did the Texas capital go from a fairly sleepy town to one of the hottest markets in the country? What really accounts for this seismic shift and what does the future hold? The Office Boom Begins In 2004, after the dot-com bust hit Austin, a group of private business leaders felt compelled to take the destiny of the city into their own hands with the creation of Opportunity Austin within the Greater Austin Chamber of Commerce. Opportunity Austin was launched with the goal of creating 72,000 regional jobs and increasing regional payrolls by $2.9 billion within five years. To do this, the regional business community invested $14.4 million in the program. These funds allowed the Austin Chamber to increase initiatives for corporate recruitment …

March 22, 2019

Market Reports Retail Texas Texas Market Reports

Redevelopment Defined Fort Worth Retail Market in 2018

by Taylor Williams March 15, 2019

2018 was a year of redevelopment, adjustment and correction for the Fort Worth retail market. Some real estate professionals believe this activity was the result of the collective, pent-up demand among quality retailers for a store presence in Fort Worth. Some believed they that could duplicate the atmosphere created by The Domain, a 1.2 million-square-foot mixed-use destination in Austin that has achieved tremendous success. The previous three years saw more than 2.5 million square feet of new retail space delivered in Fort Worth, a figure that exceeds the combined total for the previous 10 years. For example, in September 2017 Simon Property Group, in partnership with Cassco Development Co., opened The Shops at Clearfork, a 500,000-square-foot, open-air luxury shopping, dining, entertainment and mixed-use destination situated in the heart of Fort Worth. The Shops at Clearfork also includes office space. Other retail projects that contributed to new supply included WestBend, Waterside, Left Bank and Presidio. This new development caused a spike in vacancy to 8.7 percent by the end of the year as landlords were all looking to stabilize their assets from the same tenant pool. At the same time, retailers, restaurants, service firms and experiential companies were cautious and calculated …

March 15, 2019

Industrial Market Reports Texas Texas Market Reports

Quality of Labor, Land Availability Buoy Fort Worth Industrial Market

by Taylor Williams March 8, 2019

The DFW industrial market has enjoyed unprecedented growth over this seven-year development cycle. The market has added approximately 118 million square feet of industrial inventory over that period and absorbed 143 million square feet. Population growth in the Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) metroplex, the state of Texas and the south-central U.S. region, as well as growth in e-commerce, are the primary tailwinds propelling this extraordinary growth. Ever since Hillwood broke ground on AllianceTexas in the late 1980s, putting north Fort Worth on the radar of industrial users, the expansion in the Fort Worth industrial market has been an ever-increasing part of the overall DFW industrial market’s growth. However, the Fort Worth industrial market’s growth is really accelerating now based on the lack of available developable industrial sites in Dallas and the Mid-Cities. Further, when users and developers compare Fort Worth and southeast Dallas, the two areas with available industrial spaces and developable industrial land, Fort Worth’s advantages with regard to infrastructure, amenities, and most importantly, labor, stand out. As the area reaches peak employment, and with labor cost being the highest percentage of a user’s overall operational cost, the workforce factor has become the most important site selection criterion for users …

March 8, 2019

Market Reports Multifamily Texas Texas Market Reports

Why Arlington Should Be on Every Multifamily Developers’ Radar

by Taylor Williams March 1, 2019

Our borrowers’ favorite question is, “Where should we build next?” As a lender specializing in financing Texas apartment communities, it’s hard to get the answer wrong. Our state is full of cities adding jobs and people at faster rates than the nation as a whole. As we drill down to help our clients differentiate between “good markets” and “good opportunities,” we focus on several factors including the current rental market, supply and demand and location. When considering these factors, the city of Arlington stands out as an overlooked “good opportunity.” It’s surprising how little attention this city of 400,000 in the middle of the metroplex has received from multifamily developers in recent years. Even as home to an ever-expanding General Motors assembly plant, one of the state’s largest universities, an entertainment district featuring two $1 billion stadiums, an extensive highway system, easy access to Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) International Airport and a pro-growth local government, we haven’t worked with a developer yet that had Arlington on its list before we talked. Yet the selling points are obvious. Current Rental Market Overall, market-rate properties in Arlington show steady occupancy at 93 percent with average rents of $1.20 per square foot and annual …

March 1, 2019

Industrial Market Reports Texas Texas Market Reports

E-Commerce, Distribution Users Spar for Labor

by Taylor Williams February 22, 2019

Industrial users in Texas, particularly e-commerce firms operating out of large-format distribution centers, are finding it harder and harder to staff their facilities with experienced, talented workers. Development of both speculative and build-to-suit warehouses and distribution centers has been on fire in major Texas markets over the last several years, driven by an abundance of land, exceptional infrastructure and climbing populations. According to CoStar Group, Dallas-Fort Worth’s (DFW) industrial supply grew by 3.5 percent, or roughly 30 million square feet, in 2017. That figure represents the highest single-year inventory growth in more than a decade. Approximately 21 million square feet of new space hit the market in 2018, and for 2019, CoStar forecasts that nearly 24 million square feet of product will be delivered. Houston’s supply growth has been tamer, averaging about 12.2 million square feet annually between 2015 and 2018. But the market is projected to add another 13.2 million square feet this year, per CoStar. With a couple exceptions, more than 90 percent of the new product delivered in DFW and Houston in each year between 2015 and 2018 was distribution space. The distribution building booms in Texas’ two biggest markets have occurred in the face of escalating …

February 22, 2019

Market Reports Retail Texas Texas Market Reports

New Year, New Entertainment

by Taylor Williams February 15, 2019

Entertainment concepts have long since adopted an “everything under one roof” approach that packages some combination of food, drink, movies, bowling, arcades and other games into a single destination. But competition in the space is growing, and owner-operators are facing mounting pressure to offer an ideal mix of activities that keeps people onsite longer and boosts return visits. What that combination is varies from market to market and even site to site. But without question, the breadth of games and activities offered at entertainment centers in Texas is expanding and evolving. What’s Hot, What’s Not Virtual reality (VR) shooting games and driving simulators, axe-throwing arenas and elevated food and beverage (F&B) components are among the key features that are driving traffic to entertainment centers and the retail properties that house them. Movie theaters and bowling alleys are evolving as well. According to Jeff Benson, CEO of Dallas-based Cinergy Entertainment Group, it’s very unlikely that new theaters in large and mid-sized markets will ever be built without certain features. “The movie business has changed a lot in 20 years, and I doubt you’ll ever see another theater built without a bar, recliner seats and dine-in options,” says Benson, who founded dine-in …

February 15, 2019

Market Reports Retail Texas Texas Market Reports

Retail Landlords Aim to Connect on First Swing

by Taylor Williams February 8, 2019

Developers of new retail product in the e-commerce era face an array of roadblocks, from rising land and construction costs to heightened scrutiny from lenders on cash flows. Besides a larger economic downturn, in today’s Darwinian retail environment, nothing makes a new project fizzle or a stabilized center depreciate faster than lost income and occupancy brought on by an un-engaging, uninspiring tenant mix. Consequently, developers are devoting more of their budgets than they have in years past to researching, meeting and analyzing users to ensure they nail their tenant rosters on their first try. This is particularly true for developers whose business models center on long-term holds of their properties. “If we put a problem tenant in a center on day one, we inherit that problem for the term of the lease,” says Anderson Smith, co-founder of Capital Retail Properties, a Houston-based retail firm that holds its developments for the long term. “So it’s very important that we do it right the first time.” Smith says that his firm’s first move when researching a potential tenant is to check out that company’s Instagram account, which provides insight on the retailer’s approach to store build-outs and quality of product or service. …

February 8, 2019

Market Reports Multifamily Texas Texas Market Reports

Survey: Multifamily Metrics Will Cool in 2019

by Taylor Williams February 1, 2019

Multifamily properties have produced strong returns for commercial developers and investors over the past few years. But the apartment supply wave appears to have crested, suggesting 2019 will bring a slower pace of rent growth. Consequently, pricing levels should come down, cap rates should creep upward and returns on investment should cool. According to a report from commercial real estate research firm Yardi Matrix, America’s multifamily market experienced 3.1 percent annual rent growth for the 12-month period ending November 2018, the latest data available at the time of this writing. The report also featured 2019 rent growth projections for America’s 30 largest multifamily markets, 19 of which are expected to see their paces of rent growth either decline or remain the same this year. Brokers who participated in Texas Real Estate Business’ annual forecast survey indicated that investment activity for multifamily assets in Texas should be more modest in 2019. This group ranked multifamily second among property types likely to experience a high velocity of sales in 2019, suggesting the new year could see more properties brought to market in anticipation of future elevation of cap rates. Numerical Context Most recently, the story on multifamily in Texas has been demand, …

February 1, 2019

Industrial Market Reports Oklahoma Texas Texas Market Reports

OKC Industrial Market Should Benefit From Rising Labor Costs Across Central U.S.

by Taylor Williams January 25, 2019

From a manufacturing perspective, Oklahoma City has historically been considered a “tertiary market” when stacked against South Central and Midwest power players such as Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW), Houston, Kansas City, San Antonio, Austin and Denver. As large manufacturing users consider multiple markets in the Central United States, Oklahoma City is often included in the initial list but typically fails to make the short list for various reasons. However, as labor costs rise, Oklahoma City may find itself being pushed to the front of the line. Past Misses Oklahoma City’s industrial market totals approximately 108 million square feet, making it a smaller market than DFW, Houston, Kansas City, San Antonio, Austin or Denver. Primarily driven by the oil & gas, aerospace and consumer goods industries, this market’s fundamentals tend to move in lockstep with oil & gas commodity prices. The city has tried to diversify the economy over the past decade and bring in non-oil & gas users. But there is still room for improvement. The metro has seen its share of growth; however, overall industrial construction still pales in comparison to larger markets. Growing Appeal The industrial booms seen in DFW, Houston, Kansas City, San Antonio, Austin and Denver over …

January 25, 2019

Market Reports Multifamily Oklahoma Texas Texas Market Reports

Investor Demand Rises for Apartment Assets in Oklahoma City

by Taylor Williams January 18, 2019

As expected and much anticipated, the global rise in oil prices has given the petroleum industry a significant boost and spurred Oklahoma City’s economic recovery. The resurgence, demonstrated in part by a three-year-high in hiring this year, is drawing out-of-state multifamily investors and bringing greater interest from companies looking to relocate or expand. In mid-October, FedEx more than doubled its warehouse space with the opening of a new 270,000-square-foot distribution facility in north Oklahoma City. The expansion came in response to the increase in outbound e-commerce volume, another indication that the local economy has turned a corner. Most of the new jobs created in Oklahoma City through September 2018 were professional and business positions. The sector grew by 4.4 percent year-over-year, easily the widest margin of any employment sector. Overall, the total number of jobs filled during that same period was 13,500, an increase of 2.1 percent. For the complete year, employers anticipate adding about 14,000 new positions. The rebound in hiring has led to the unemployment rate dropping to 3.2 percent, nearly its lowest level in a decade. Supply-Demand Balance The city’s economic recovery is particularly well-timed for multifamily investors, as it coincides with a reduction in the metro’s …

January 18, 2019

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