Market Reports

Since the Great Recession, a strong, steady pace of job creation has attracted thousands of new residents to the Texas capital. This growth has subsequently provided numerous job options for locals, pushing the area’s unemployment rate to 3 percent, one of the lowest in the country. Sinking unemployment, along with wages that have grown faster than the national rate, have spurred robust household formation trends over the last few years, benefiting the local housing market. Rents vs. Mortgages While the volume of apartment deliveries remains elevated compared to historical averages, favorable demographics and a shift in residents’ attitude toward homeownership keep demand for units strong. Rising home prices, especially within the city of Austin, have many residents looking to apartment living, as the concept of homeownership is fiscally out of reach. At the end of last year, the average effective rent of approximately $1,200 per month was $750 less than the monthly mortgage payment on a median-priced home, a disparity that has nearly doubled since 2012. As a result, the area’s homeownership rate has plummeted, clocking in at just over 50 percent in the third quarter of 2017, down from a high of 71 percent in 2006. As the renter …

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For retail tenants and developers alike, Houston’s Space City moniker could easily be interpreted as a kind of tongue-in-cheek double meaning, mainly because space is one thing Houston always has plenty of. Commercial developers have taken full advantage of that space in recent years, adding an eye-opening 16.3 million square feet of retail product over the last 36 months, according to a report from Colliers International. Houston added somewhere between 4 million and 4.5 million square feet of new retail during last year alone. That pedal-to-the-metal pace has been the clear headline for so long now that it almost feels odd to talk about a change of pace. But that’s exactly what seems to be taking place in Houston, as the commercial development marketplace is in the midst of transitioning from the explosive growth of recent years into a more demand-based dynamic. This is not a slowdown so much as a stabilization or a recalibration — a sprinter taking a breath between laps. This is an interesting and perhaps even necessary turn of events. Houston is a development-friendly city with a relative abundance of available and affordable land and a streamlined and generally permissive regulatory environment that makes permits, zoning …

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In recent months, a renaissance in the Houston’s urban core, paired with a flight to quality and focus on sustainable design, has created a perfect storm for the metro’s office sector. This revival has been combined with a renewed focus on living and working in Houston’s Central Business District (CBD), which has simultaneously driven a resurgence in both retail and mixed-use developments. Downtown Houston’s burgeoning multifamily market is one of the key drivers in Class A office development. Since 2013, downtown Houston has seen 3,355 new multifamily units hit the market. And according to industry estimates from the midway point of 2017, the multifamily market will continue to grow significantly — as much as 40 percent — by the end of this year. These trends, paired with a 6 percent increase in construction of new hotels, have created greater demand in the marketplace for mixed-use developments that offer diverse tenant mixes, including high-end retail and dining options. A Flight to Quality These shifting preferences among residents and employees within the city’s urban core has prompted a flight to high-quality, modern and energy-efficient buildings, as more tenants look for office space in Class A developments that boast top-of-the-line amenities. Over the …

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Houston’s resilient multifamily market has turned a corner and is poised for growth this year, according to experts across a range of industries. While the city faced significant headwinds in 2017, mainly a sluggish energy sector and a major hurricane that damaged thousands of homes and apartments, Houston’s strong fundamentals have paved the way for the multifamily market to post its strongest performance since 2015. The impacts of Hurricane Harvey generated unexpected changes in the multifamily market. The storm, estimated to be one of the costliest in U.S. history, damaged nearly 135,000 homes and more than 100,000 apartment units. Consequently, the rental market saw a spike in absorption from displaced homeowners and existing renters whose apartments were uninhabitable, thus reversing the supply imbalance and anemic rent growth that had stifled the market since the multifamily building boom — and subsequent oil bust — of  2015. Basic Numbers A surge in demand drove multifamily occupancy up 120 basis points to 90.1 percent between August and September of 2017, its highest level since the fourth quarter of 2015. The heightened demand translated into a monthly rent increase of 1.4 percent. In effect, rent grew to $999 per month on average in September, …

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The resiliency of Houston’s industrial real estate market is truly astounding. Outsiders have always considered Houston to be an “oil town” whose economic success is tied to the geopolitical intricacies of the international energy markets. Yet three years into the oil and gas downturn, Houston has proven that it has a truly diversified economic base. The city’s industrial real estate market has consequently enjoyed a disproportionate benefit of that concerted effort to establish a truly balanced economy. From 2009 to 2014, while the national economy sputtered along due to anti-business policies of the Obama administration, Houston enjoyed a countercyclical economic boon as all sectors of the oil and gas industry added jobs, increased investment and drove demand for oil service-related real estate. Manufacturers and distributors made significant real estate commitments to property and equipment as they worked to meet the demand for materials and services related to the growth in domestic shale exploration and production. When the music stopped in November 2014, outsiders and pundits threw their hands in the air, called it the end of Houston’s growth story and declared that it would be the 1980s all over again. Houston real estate veterans, however, trusted the diversified economy and …

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Demand for data center space stems from a variety of sources. The vast majority of companies across most industries have some sort of web presence, and their customer and employee records and information are stored electronically. At the same time on the consumer side, smartphones and tablet devices are all but ubiquitous, their owners constantly upping their usage of apps and social media platforms. Nonprofit communications firm CTIA tracks aggregate wireless data usage across the country on an annual basis. The Washington, D.C.-based company found that in 2013, Americans used approximately 3.2 trillion megabytes of data. By 2015, a year in which there were about 228 million smartphones and 41 million tablet devices in circulation, that figure had increased threefold to 9.6 trillion megabytes. By 2016, a year in which there were more than 261 million smartphones in circulation, wireless data usage had exceeded 13.7 trillion megabytes. That total represents more than 35 times the volume of data traffic recorded in 2010, according to CTIA’s website. Web presences, records storage and electronic communications — not to mention the ever-expanding role of e-commerce in retail today — each contribute marginally to the growing demand for data center space. However, when combined …

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After Hurricane Harvey made landfall on the Texas Gulf Coast, the storm’s impacts on commercial real estate were most immediately felt in the single- and multifamily spaces. As the recovery effort got underway, it became clear that some office buildings had been damaged, driving down occupancy in that sector, while demand for industrial materials and space rose. Perhaps because retail occupancy in Houston — which most recently clocked in at 94.6 percent, according to CoStar Group — has been strong throughout the oil downturn, or because most store closures stemmed from employees being unable to get to work, the storm’s impacts on the retail sector have been somewhat trickier to measure. Whatever the case, nearly four months after the storm, retailers in certain industries are seeing their sales figures climb dramatically, and without help from the holiday shopping rush. Grocers Lead the Way The grocery business — a form of brick-and-mortar retail thought to be somewhat insulated from e-commerce — has been at the forefront of retail segments seeing an uptick in sales following Harvey. Residents experiencing power outages and damaged refrigerators generated healthy and immediate demand for groceries. “Grocers were particularly impacted by Harvey, and in the aftermath it …

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As the real estate world addresses the uncertain future of brick-and-mortar shopping, the market for retail investment in San Antonio remains strong. The recent bankruptcies of physical merchandisers such as Toy “R” Us, Radio Shack, Rue 21 and Payless Shoes — to name but a few — have proven that retailers must adapt their strategies to an ever-changing environment. In San Antonio, however, a historically low volume of new retail development and decreasing vacancy rates, combined with strong fundamentals, have attracted and secured more retail investors than ever before. San Antonio’s thriving economy is supported by steady job growth — 25,000 jobs have thus far been added in 2017, according to the City Employment Statistics survey. The Bureau of Labor Statistics put San Antonio’s unemployment rate at 3.7 percent as of August 2017, versus the national average of 4.5 percent. Often referred to as Military City, USA, San Antonio is home to Joint Base San Antonio, which includes Fort Sam Houston, Lackland Air Force Base and Randolph Air Force Base. These military installations alone employ roughly 90,000 people and have an estimated $27 billion impact on the local economy. These statistics, coupled with the market’s steady job and population growth, …

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San Antonio is one of the nation’s fastest-growing cities, with a booming, diversified economy that’s luring new businesses and young people at a rate that most other metro areas can only envy. Lacking Austin’s hipster cred, Dallas’ moneyed glamour and Houston’s perennial position at the epicenter of a global industry, San Antonio’s many strengths are often overlooked. While this lower profile hasn’t slowed growth in the Alamo City, it has left its expanding market for Class A apartments comparatively underserved. Led by education and health services, the San Antonio area’s economy added approximately 21,500 new jobs in 2016. This represents a 2.1 percent growth rate, a healthy pace for the San Antonio MSA, albeit a slight reduction from the 2.8 percent growth rate in 2015, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. This steady expansion fueled a population boom that saw 47,906 new residents join the metro between July 2015 and July 2016. This 2 percent growth rate ranked San Antonio as the 10th fastest-growing MSA with a population greater than 1 million people, according to estimates by the U.S. Census Bureau. Millennials Lead the Way San Antonio isn’t just a leader in total population growth; it also ranks …

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Regional investors have always described San Antonio as a steady market with desirable economic indicators. But with the impending delivery of a Class AA office tower and a growing tech presence, the city is on the brink of emerging as a national contender for commercial real estate investment. Historically, San Antonio has posted strong employment figures that have kept it firing on all cylinders and ready for business. The San Antonio-New Braunfels MSA has experienced seven straight years of job growth. The metro’s unemployment rate has dropped 10 basis points quarter-over-quarter to its current level of 3.7 percent, a figure that strongly outperforms the national average of 4.5 percent. By comparison, the MSA’s 10-year average unemployment rate was 5.5 percent and the nation’s 7 percent. As new investors analyze the San Antonio office market’s history, they should consider the similarities and differences between San Antonio and other major Texas metros. Assessing the last peak-and-valley metrics from 2007 through 2010 provides insight into how the market reacts to a changing economy. Vacancy Rate Stabilizes The vacancy rate for Class A office properties in San Antonio peaked in 2009 at 16.7 percent, while vacancy rates in Austin, Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) and Houston …

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