By Taylor Williams DALLAS — Just 18 months ago, multifamily lenders and investors in major Texas markets were underwriting record-high levels of rent growth to accompany historically low cap rates, giving capital sources little hesitation to lend at negative leverage. Following a spate of nearly a dozen interest rate hikes, the opposite is now mostly true. Negative leverage occurs when a buyer’s going-in capitalization rate is lower than the all-in interest rate on the debt attached to the property. The scenario tends to manifest when a property with an encumbered cash flow is purchased in a high- or rising-interest-rate environment. As a rule of thumb, net operating income should comfortably cover debt service, or at least clearly be moving in that direction at the time of acquisition. When times are good — meaning prices are high for sellers and money is cheap to borrow for buyers — negative leverage can present a flexible and creative way of getting deals across the finish line. Lenders and equity partners may be willing to accept negative leverage in the short run because they are confident that rents/cash flows will soon increase, or that interest rates will remain low, or both. But the ability to …
Market Reports
The effects of sweeping macroeconomic forces in recent years are now manifesting themselves in industrial projects in Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW). And while the market still enjoys healthy fundamentals and tenant demand, the product being delivered now comes with a new look, functionality and set of requirements from end users. To some degree, this paradigm shift in how industrial properties are conceived, designed and constructed stems from major economic factors and trends that are beyond the ability of architects, contractors and developers to control. To start with the obvious, interest rates are now five times what they were 18 months ago. When hikes of that magnitude are enacted so expeditiously, real estate professionals of all walks are impacted, even if it’s in an indirect manner. “Demand for industrial space is there; if developers are building, the rents are probably there to cover those costs,” says Mike Williams, vice president of preconstruction at Dallas-based Talley Riggins Construction Group. “But for developers that are trying to form a team to get enough equity to get a loan — those deals aren’t working anymore with these rates. So paying extra close attention to who your clients are and their funding sources has been the …
By Taylor Williams Tenant demand and availability of capital for industrial deals are still healthy in Texas, but end users and developers are demonstrating a clear push for smaller footprints in their leases and projects. This shift reflects a marked departure from recent years, when massive speculative facilities were financed without hesitation or preleasing and industrial users had little choice but to accept staggering levels of rent growth. Spikes in interest rates bear some, but not all, blame for this emerging dynamic. Local and regional banks tend to be go-to debt providers on industrial projects, and these groups take defensive positions with their capital flows during high interest rate environments. And while reliance on e-commerce and third-party distribution remains deeply ingrained in consumer preferences, users still see value in rightsizing their footprints in today’s market. As such, the industrial landscape is changing in Texas, where exceptionally strong population growth nonetheless ensures that the sector remains on very solid footing overall. But changes are undoubtedly happening. Large-scale spec facilities are being swapped for smaller build-to-suits, and manufacturing deals are taking up a larger share of the development pipeline. Lenders are tightening leverage and demanding more upfront equity for projects that they …
By Taylor Williams Brick-and-mortar retail has quietly, yet emphatically resurrected itself from the e-commerce- and COVID-induced death knell, bolstered by multiple years of low supply growth that have put a premium on quality space and allowed landlords to zero in on what truly constitutes a winning concept. This notion is inherently subjective and difficult to quantify. But in Dallas-Fort Worth, retail owners and operators say that authenticity — as defined by uniqueness of the offerings and adherence to and reflection of local culture — is paramount to success. From the presentation and packaging of products and services to utilization of local architectural styles to creating a certain shopping or dining ambiance, the ability to capture the authenticity of the market is crucial. Consumers and landlords can afford to be choosy, and they won’t waste time at stores, restaurants or entertainment venues that feel cookie-cutter, phony or out-of-place. But retail landlords can ill-afford to do deals with tenants that simply look the part but lack the financial ability to pay rents, which are growing in urban locations where availability of space remains tight. Monetary due diligence remains critical, but as often as not, there is considerable overlap between the financial solvency …
By Ryan Kimura, senior vice president of strategic partnerships, Premier The changing landscape of work and the future of the office remains in flux, leading to a reduced demand for office space in major metropolitan areas throughout the country. This shift has rendered many office buildings underutilized and obsolete, prompting developers and investors to seek alternative uses for these structures. Simultaneously, urbanization continues to grow, fueling the demand for housing and a need for innovative multifamily solutions. Office-to-multifamily conversions provide an answer to both challenges, repurposing office spaces into much-needed residential units while allowing investors to capitalize on demand. This perfect storm of reduced office demand, increased housing needs and favorable regulatory conditions has driven the popularity of office-to-multifamily conversions, positioning them as a sustainable strategy for urban development. These conversions began to surge in popular metro areas during the height of the pandemic as uncertainty surrounded the return to the workplace. Fast forward three years later and office conversions are still booming — especially in the Dallas market. The region, which has witnessed some of the largest population increase in the country over the past five years, has also had a double-digit office vacancy rate in its downtown area …
By Herb Weitzman, executive chairman, Weitzman The major Texas metro areas of Austin, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston and San Antonio all share one thing in common: Their retail markets are posting balances of supply and demand that outpace every other major commercial real estate category. This milestone was not achieved without overcoming significant obstacles. The major Texas retail markets have survived decades of back-to-back challenges, including major market disruptors like e-commerce, the 2008 Financial Crisis that knocked out several major chains and 2020’s pandemic-induced shutdowns. Each of these significant disruptions and challenges first resulted in store closings and higher vacancy rates. But retail operators as well as commercial brokers and landlords all learned from the setbacks by embracing the lessons of these disruptions to understand how to creatively bounce back stronger. As a result of the market’s careful pivoting, the retail markets in Texas’ major metros have right-sized and are reporting a yearslong trend of balance in supply and demand. To illustrate this point, we used the mid-year reports from CoStar Group on the non-retail CRE types. We compared retail vacancy rates in the four Texas markets to CoStar’s mid-year rates for the industrial, office and multifamily spaces in each of …
By Ron Gilbreath, managing director of asset & property management, Westmount Realty Capital It’s no trade secret that global lockdowns during the pandemic had a significant and lasting impact on supply chains worldwide. EY’s 2023 poll revealed that 72 percent of senior-level supply chain executives experienced negative impacts on their businesses due to the pandemic, resulting in the emergence of a concentrated focus on supply chain visibility. The crucial point to acknowledge during this continued disruption is that these impacts are closely tied to the just-in-time (JIT) inventory management system. As a result of these challenges, businesses are actively reassessing their distribution network strategies, leading to a surge in demand for industrial warehouse space. With the necessity to maintain greater inventory levels, companies are re-evaluating their warehouse space requirements and distribution setups to mitigate the risk of future supply shortages. The lockdowns disrupted two essential elements of JIT strategy: steady production and supplier reliability. Suppliers forced to comply with government lockdowns incurred major disruptions across various business lines due to the challenge of maintaining consistent production. This is a key component of JIT delivery that relies on having materials physically present during the production process. When these materials are unavailable, …
By Ben Wallace, SIOR, vice president, Colliers Over the past decade, “suburban industrial” buildings have become more critical than ever. A suburban industrial building can be defined as one that is located within the suburbs of a major metroplex and designed for small- to medium-size users with above-average allotments of office/showroom space to accommodate service and light distribution uses. The typical building and infrastructure designs naturally limit heavy truck traffic and achieve higher rental rates, deterring heavy distribution and manufacturing users from locating there. With macro-level shifts in how people shop for and acquire goods and services, the need for suburban industrial buildings that are located near consumers has become increasingly important. Most cities have done an excellent job of regulating and altering development standards for these assets to meet this need while being careful to avoid creating rundown industrial areas in their communities. These cities have achieved this goal by elevating development standards to feature clean concrete exterior façades as well as the screening of dock loading areas and attractive glass entrances. The reason that many of these items are important is that the vast majority of these suburban industrial developments are not appropriately zoned when developers come to …
By Taylor Williams Multifamily investment sales activity has been muted across major Texas markets during the first half of 2023, underscoring the unfortunate reality that even the most coveted asset classes are not immune to severe macroeconomic headwinds. Much like a year ago, the combined effects of stubborn inflation and corresponding interest rate hikes have wrought visibly negative changes to the world of multifamily investment sales. But in summer 2022, deals were still getting done at a decent clip; price disparities and depreciation were the most significant and obvious impediments to deal velocity. Today, buyers and sellers are more closely aligned on market realities as relates to price points, but many are simply not motivated to transact — at least in the short term. According to data from RealPage, in the first quarter of 2023, there were 337 multifamily transactions within the Dallas-Plano-Irving triangle, down from 510 in the first quarter of 2022. The greater Houston area saw 266 deals executed in the first quarter this year, a decline from 410 during that period in 2022, while the Austin market’s total number of transaction fell from 191 to 123 quarter-over-quarter. Multifamily sales prices responded differently to reduced deal volume from …
By Taylor Williams North Texas is attracting new and existing entertainment concepts at a frenetic pace as operators of these facilities seek to position themselves squarely in pathways of major growth and capitalize on any remaining pent-up demand from the pandemic. According to a 2022 report from the North Central Texas Council of Governments, the region’s population surpassed 8 million last year. In addition, more than 20 cities in North Texas — the area that includes and surrounds the Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) metroplex — saw their populations swell by 10 percent or more on a year-over-year basis between mid-2021 and mid-2022. This growth inevitably encompasses key demographics that entertainment operators covet, including families with children and young working professionals. High-paying jobs continue to flow into DFW in the form of corporate relocations and consolidations. Developer KDC recently began construction on Wells Fargo’s 850,000-square-foot regional campus in Irving. New pieces of the PGA of America’s headquarters campus in Frisco are coming on line every quarter and sparking feverish development in surrounding neighborhoods. Global engineering consultant AECOM and construction machinery manufacturer Caterpillar are also in the process of relocating their headquarters from Los Angeles to Dallas, among others. Checking the two boxes …