Market Reports

— By Nadia Letey, senior vice president, CBRE — The global office landscape has markedly changed post-pandemic. Now, amidst economic headwinds and the ongoing stabilization of return-to-office mandates, U.S. office markets like Salt Lake City are undergoing various shifts that are set to shape real estate dynamics in 2024. At the same time, Utah’s economy remains a highly desirable location to do business, in large part bolstered by an exceptionally strong talent pool. What’s Changing: Development Slowdown Poised to Ease Supply Demand Imbalances Salt Lake City saw a 42 percent year-over-year decrease in total office space under construction in fourth-quarter 2023, marking an all-time low. High interest rates, along with record-high vacancies, will continue to deter developers from breaking ground in the near term without significant pre-lease activity. This thinning construction pipeline will likely reduce supply side risks over the next several years as demand can be placed within second-generation space with elevated vacancy. Existing properties — especially in amenity-rich locations — will do well to attract tenants. The emphasis on creating a collaborative and inviting workspace will continue to be important to bring employees into the office.  Projects that are moving from planned to under construction are hedging their risk by …

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— By Jarrod Hunt, vice chair, Colliers — The Utah industrial market continues to perform very well given the reduction in the average deal size in 2023 (illustrated in the charts for both Utah and Salt Lake Counties below).  The entrepreneurial spirit that continues to be the backbone of Utah’s economy is evident with the smaller lease sizes. This was a welcome opportunity for companies confined to limited options for growth over the past economic run-up. However, we have seen a notable increase in out-of-market tenant inquiries, with many in search of larger blocks of space in the New Year. We expect the pendulum to swing the other direction this year with an increase in the average square footage of completed deals, an overall increase in the number of deals and a reduction in the vacancy rates, which will put a solid floor on lease rates.  The reduction in vacancy is most attributable to the stark reduction of construction deliveries in the two main county markets, Salt Lake and Utah counties (per the charts below). This dramatic reduction in speculative building activity is “on brand” for Utah, being a very disciplined market for new construction compared to several other high-growth …

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— By Kip Paul, vice chair; Michael King, director; and JT Redd, senior associate, Cushman & Wakefield — The Salt Lake City multifamily market has experienced significant growth in recent years. This reflects the influx of new residents to the State of Utah, in addition to notable increases in average household income. Developers have responded to this growing demand by delivering an unprecedented amount of rental housing inventory to the market. Since 2020, new deliveries averaged 12 percent of Salt Lake’s inventory base each year.  Despite increases in apartment supply, overall fundamentals remain strong. Last year’s vacancy rates remained below 4 percent for the 12th consecutive year, while rental rates surged from $1,182 to $1,654 between 2020 and 2023. Salt Lake City’s renowned access to the outdoors and high quality of life place the city in a league of its own, positioning it to continue to capture apartment demand for years to come. What Sets Salt Lake Apart The Salt Lake City multifamily market stands out due to several key features. First, it offers affordability. Rental rates remain below 30 percent of residents’ average income despite overall increases in apartment prices. Second, Salt Lake City provides unparalleled access to outdoor …

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— By Greg Swedelson and Jon-Eric Greene, co-founders, SSG Realty Partners — Although there continues to be much speculation and concern about the impacts of inflation, high debt costs, rising unemployment and an economy that may be heading for a slowdown in the coming year, there is reason to believe that the outlook for the Salt Lake City commercial real estate market is quite positive. With more than $100 billion in annual GDP, Salt Lake City’s economic growth rate is poised to end the year up nearly 3.5 percent (and nearly 80 percent since 2011). Although many are projecting a more moderate growth rate of 2.8 percent entering 2024, the overall economy and commercial real estate market in SLC remain resilient, if not robust. Offering a combination of affordability, abundant job opportunities and a business-friendly environment, SLC has attracted some of the nation’s largest corporations and specialized tech companies, and with them, talent to fuel meaningful employment growth. So much so, in fact, that net employment is up nearly 10 percent over the pre-Covid levels of 2019, with no sign of slowing.  Like so many markets, SLC has seen a precipitous drop in investment sales volume across all commercial sectors …

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— By Wick Udy, Senior Managing Director, JLL — Salt Lake City’s industrial market continued its exceptional performance in 2022. Last year was the third consecutive year of above-average leasing and the second-highest volume of annual absorption on record. The largest volume of completions was recorded in 2022 with 13 million square feet delivered. However, leasing and absorption volumes were both below 2021 levels, which is something industry leaders are watching in 2023. Developers were forced to push pause on new building projects toward the end of 2022 due to rising interest rates and tighter capital markets. Because of this, JLL predicts 2023 could be the year of the sublease. What was a landlord-favorable market for many years is slowly leaning toward a tenant-favorable market.  Based on current activity within the marketplace, absorption should be positive in first-quarter 2023. Companies are signing leases on existing buildings instead of waiting for new builds, which will keep vacancy low for the foreseeable future. The market has remained as robust as it has because companies from California are relocating to Salt Lake City. They want to take advantage of its affordable real estate, quality of the workforce and the market’s proximity to large …

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— By Rawley Nielsen, President of Investment Sales, Colliers — Salt Lake City’s multifamily market will continue to stand out and impress in 2023…even with so much uncertainty, ongoing readjustments within the market and many investors at a stay. That’s because Utah continues to receive outsized investor interest that will maintain stability in pricing. Investors recognize overall performance at property levels remains healthy as the state continues to be a leader in population growth. Utah is also one of the top states for outstanding job creation, increased demand for housing and exponential rent growth. While multifamily investment sales volume was record-setting during the first half of 2022, we have seen volume taper dramatically in recent months. This is due to rising interest rates and a lack of clarity in the debt and equity markets that have impacted pricing. Much of this slowing can be attributed to the rising cost of capital and low leverage caused by debt service coverage ratio (DSCR) requirements. (See Tables 1-3) Overall, 2022 saw an average cap rate of 3.75 percent, decompressing over 20 basis points compared to the first half of the year. Cap rates are expected to expand further through 2023 as uncertainty in …

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Increased activity and record amounts of positive net absorption created a new commercial landscape across the Wasatch Front. The majority of 2016 leasing activity was a result of tenants occupying new space that was pre-leased during 2015. While sublease availability increased over each quarter, overall market indicators like local population growth and continued economic development will remain strong into 2017. The Salt Lake County office market grew by an additional 1.7 million square feet in 2016, primarily in the South submarket. More than 1.5 million square feet of space was under construction at the close of 2016. This product will be introduced to the market by mid-year 2017. Vacancy rates increased slightly from 8.6 percent in 2015 to 8.74 percent at the end of 2016. Notable Salt Lake office projects completed in 2016 include 111 South Main (440,000 square feet); Vista Stations 4 through 8 (655,000 square feet); The Pointe I (77,703 square feet); the Overstock Peace Coliseum (231,000 square feet); and Town Ridge Center I & II (250,000 square feet), to name a few. An additional 1.5 million square feet of space was under construction at the end of the year. Buildings like 53rd Center 1 (200,000 square feet); …

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With nearly 3 million square feet of industrial space under construction, and climbing lease rates averaging $5.64 per square foot, it is safe to say the industrial market along Utah’s Wasatch Front is alive and well. The primary Salt Lake County market reports an overall industrial vacancy level of 5.08 percent. In the fast-growing Utah County submarket that’s just south of Salt Lake City, the vacancy rate is 3.44 percent. This is in line with the pre-recession levels experienced in the mid-2000s. The most noticeable difference in today’s environment is the scale of buildings being built on spec, as well as who is carrying out these projects. We continue to see construction starts and announcements on buildings larger than 300,000 square feet — many of which are speculative — by out-of-state development or investment groups. This includes companies like Clarion Partners, Exeter Property Group and Seefried Industrial Properties. This represents a new resurgence of interest by many of the “brand name,” major-market players who want to be part of the dynamic growth occurring in Utah. This is a growing trend nationally as well, which is interesting to see in the relatively smaller, 170-million-square-foot Wasatch Front market.Activity from the local players …

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The retail market in Utah continues to build steam and has expanded over the past 12 months. With these gains, tenants are in abundance and new construction is on the rise. Vacancy continued to improve through 2014, as the overall vacancy rate declined by 0.7 percentage points on a year-over-year basis to end at 6.2 percent. This represents the lowest vacancy rate of the past decade. With supply constrained and demand improving, average asking lease rates jumped by 9 percent on a year-over-year basis, to $18.98 per square foot. New construction continued across the valley, with 548,577 square feet of space added to the market. The local housing market drives retail development in Utah. About 18,573 building permits have been issued throughout the state in the past two years, including multifamily projects. This construction pushed many retailers into expansion mode, looking to take up shop in locations that cut off the competition. This is particularly true in one segment of the market that now stands supreme in the Utah retail ecosystem: grocery. Grocers have expanded at a breakneck rate. Sprout’s Farmers Market opened new stores in Holladay and South Jordan. A Smith’s Marketplace opened its doors in West Jordan at …

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Retail business continues to be solid in greater Salt Lake City. Total net absorption in all retail categories doubled, when compared to 2012. High-end retail in regional centers saw a 20 percent increase in rents to $24.50 per square foot. Retail inventory increased to a little more than 1 million square feet in 2013 as well. Significant growth areas include new retail in the eclectic Sugarhouse area, the southwest portion of Salt Lake County and the 5600 West corridor. New development also took place in the Central Business District of Salt Lake City. Shadow retail near the new City Creek Mall is fostering some of the Central Business District activity as well. Utah’s excellent light and commuter rails have spurred retail and commercial developments alongside their routes through four counties. Examples include a redevelopment project at Fairbourne Station in West Valley City and the expansion of Vista Station in Salt Lake County. Vista Station is a mixed-use development that is anchored by eBay. Many grocery tenants also have expansion plans for 2014 and 2015. WinCo, Harmon’s, WalMart Neighborhood Grocery, Whole Foods, Sprouts and others all either have plans or are underway with new projects. Large and mid-box retailers are very …

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