Midwest Market Reports

By Mandi Backhaus, The Lerner Co. As we finish out the first quarter of 2024, we reflect on the Omaha retail real estate market with consideration to the internal and external factors of trends, challenges, opportunities and the state of the economy. It can be said that the Omaha metropolitan area remains steadfast throughout difficult times. With its robust and diverse nature, anchored by industries such as healthcare, technology and finance, Omaha, although sometimes called a “flyover city,” remains a hidden gem for those looking for a steady yet vital lifestyle at an attractive cost.  This favorability trickles down to how real estate is valued and utilized in the area. According to a Merrill Lynch article, approximately $84 trillion in assets is set to change hands over the next 20 years, from baby boomers onto their children and so on. While the various generations may invest differently, one constant remains: real estate.  From a national standpoint, the unstable scenario results from a blend of factors, with inflation, interest rates and the collapse of banks in early 2023 being particularly prominent. This perfect storm had left the industry in a precarious position. The Mortgage Bankers Association revealed a 56 percent drop …

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By Dan Wendorf, JLL The industrial landscape in Columbus is not just thriving — it’s breaking records. As highlighted in JLL’s fourth-quarter 2023 Columbus Industrial Insights Report, 2023 marked another milestone year for the market. With over 19 million square feet under construction and surpassing 2022’s nearly 7 million-square-foot total, Columbus has solidified its position as a national industrial hub.  The report also showed total vacancy increased 3.8 percent year over year due to 15.7 million square feet of speculative completions, which finished the year at 30 percent leased. Although a modest uptick, Columbus continues to diversify its industrial scene from exclusively being known as once a “logistics and parcel delivery hub” to now being recognized for its growth in advanced manufacturing and data centers.  As exemplified by investments from Facebook, Google and Meta, the market has evolved into a multifaceted industrial powerhouse. In particular, investments in microchip factories have stimulated the need for additional warehousing from suppliers, and this trend is expected to continue in the coming year. This article explores how Columbus has become a key player in industrial development, factors motivating businesses to move their operations to central Ohio and what’s in the pipeline to keep an …

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By Spencer Jordan, Steiner + Associates The retail environment in Columbus, Ohio, is not just among the most unique and diverse in the Midwest, but in the nation. Columbus currently enjoys the fourth highest concentration of retail headquarters of any American city. Familiar names like Bath & Body Works, Victoria’s Secret, Express, Big Lots! and Chipotle all call Columbus home, and brands like Lululemon have significant logistics and distribution infrastructure in the city. But why is Columbus such a popular retail hub? What is the state of Columbus retail today? What sectors and neighborhoods are performing, and what are the trends to monitor when it comes to the future of retail in the Columbus market? Why Columbus? Among the many factors driving Columbus’s sustained retail success, the most important piece of the puzzle is the big picture: the city is thriving — and not just economically. Columbus placed eighth nationally in WalletHub’s recent rankings of all 50 state capitals, coming in ahead of popular high-profile markets like Denver, Nashville and Boston. The rankings are based on affordability, economic well being, quality of health and education, and quality of life. Columbus is one of the strongest Midwest markets in GDP per …

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By Noel Liston, Core Industrial Realty The 10 major submarkets that comprise the broader Chicagoland industrial market all performed at or above expectations in 2023. While absorption was not as robust as the pandemic boom that saw back-to-back record years, 2023 was a solid year for absorption and a strong year in rental growth throughout the broader market.  Significant deliveries of speculative developments were offset with solid absorption by manufacturing, assembly and food & beverage-related industries that picked up the slack left from a less enthusiastic e-commerce market. Broadly speaking, the greater Chicagoland industrial market started 2024 with a vacancy rate of ±7.3 percent. This vacancy rate is up from the low 5 percent range the market averaged for the second half of 2023.  Assuming equilibrium (a market that favors neither tenant nor landlord) for the market is historically a ±6 percent vacancy rate, the current vacancy rate can be deceiving. This is, in large part, due to the jump in vacancy as a result of the delivery of a significant amount of larger, speculative industrial developments in certain submarkets where land zoned for industrial with relatively good access to a major highway or interstate was still available.   Further, …

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By Brad Belden, Colliers Now that the final numbers are in for 2023, we can undoubtedly say that the worst of COVID is behind us in the world of retail leasing. 2023 saw increased rental rates, longer-term deals and record low vacancy rates across the nation.  It’s great news; retail is not dead and it could even be argued that it’s never been busier. But it’s also… different. On average, leases are shrinking and how space is used is changing. And demand, coupled with customers’ increased desire to visit evolving concepts, is making for another busy year ahead for this segment of the industry.  So far, 2024 is off to a great start and this year’s trends are already taking form. On the consumer side, a significant shift back to bricks-and-mortar retail is already underway as consumers seek to connect with retailers again and make shopping an “experience.”  On the retailer side, two factors are driving change: the emergence of AI, which is allowing many retailers to analyze and customize the customer experience while improving operations behind the scenes to boost sales (regardless of the tenant type, retail tenants in Chicago and across the U.S. have one thing in common: …

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By Louis Suarez, Misty Bowe and Brian Bruggeman, Colliers The Twin Cities medical real estate market has experienced many different phases over the last few years, reflecting the region’s journey toward post-pandemic recovery. Currently, this sector is experiencing a notable shift that is fueled by rising vacancy rates for on-campus hospital properties contrasted with a low vacancy rate of 4.9 percent for off-campus medical buildings.  This shift is significantly influenced by the push to outpatient surgery centers, ongoing financial pressures and consolidation trends. Additionally, experts in this region are predicting a scarcity of new medical building supply in 2024, which is expected to exert ongoing pressure on rental rates for existing medical office space, despite the stabilization of interest rates that is anticipated to come later this year.  As of the fourth quarter of 2023, the current construction pipeline consists of a mere 84,000 square feet, all of which is spoken for with no additional supply projected to come to market in the next year, which is a nearly 80 percent decrease year-over-year. The dramatic increase in interest rates, rising construction costs and capital constraints have pushed asking rents for new proposed projects to well above $30 per square foot …

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By Kellen Cushing, Carmody MacDonald PC Commercial and residential construction projects are inherently complex undertakings involving numerous parties working under tight deadlines and limited budgets. Change is inevitable and unpredictable in these projects, most often due to changes in project scope, incomplete or incorrect design, and unforeseen physical conditions.   When something doesn’t go according to plan, it can impact the other parties’ abilities to perform their jobs in a timely manner and lead to litigation. Claims and litigation can be costly, time consuming and stressful for all parties, and may damage the relationship and reputation of the parties involved. Proper contractual planning among project owners and contractors can reduce the likelihood of litigation. Making preliminary management plans and incorporating them into the project’s contracts provides effective ways to address changes that can occur during a project and keep things moving forward. While preparation cannot always prevent roadblocks in construction projects, preemptive planning can make for much smoother sailing, even in the face of unpredictable circumstances.     The best ways to avoid or minimize costly and time-consuming lawsuits include the following: Know your contract. Create a clear and comprehensive contract that defines the scope, schedule, budget, quality and responsibilities of …

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By Stephen Daum, Colliers The eyes of the sporting world once again focus on downtown Indianapolis as it hosts the 2024 NBA All-Star Game at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in mid-February. It is anticipated that the game will have a $320 million economic impact to the city. Indianapolis was set to hold the 2021 NBA All-Star Game, but the COVID-19 shutdown forced a postponement until 2024.  Similarly, the pandemic also stunted development efforts in the central business district. But like the return of the All-Star Game, downtown development projects have rebounded, with an estimated $9 billion in projects set to be completed over the next few years.  In anticipation of hosting the All-Star Game, Pacers Sports & Entertainment finished an extensive $400 million remodel of Gainbridge Fieldhouse, including new seats, expanded social gathering areas, plus the new outdoor Bicentennial Unity Plaza — offering public basketball courts and an ice skating rink in the winter. Overlooking Bicentennial Plaza is Commission Row, a 30,000-square-foot mixed-use, multi-story development. Basketball isn’t the only sport driving downtown development. Indy Eleven, a United Soccer League (USL) franchise headed by local developer Ersal Ozdemir, has begun construction on its expansive Indy Eleven Park. This will be located just south …

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By Adam Ferguson, Bernard Financial Group If 2022 was a lesson in how rapidly things can change in commercial real estate, 2023 was an exercise in adaptation for both borrowers and lenders alike. Detroit is no stranger to change or adaptation.  From becoming the Motor City and growing into the country’s fourth-largest city during the first half of the 20th century to a renaissance in the 2010s after several decades of bumps and bruises, Detroit continues to add to its storied history. With billions of dollars of investment within the city limits and growing suburban sectors, Detroit’s multifamily market is making significant advancements by adding fresh developments to a market where 38 percent of multifamily inventory is over 50 years old.  While certainly not the only catalyst, low interest rates help to spur development. Lower cost of capital is especially impactful in markets like Detroit where building costs are high and rents are low compared with other major markets. Southeast Michigan averaged over 3,800 units of multifamily housing building permits issued per year over the past decade. Compare that to an average of 988 from the decade prior and one can discern the growth in demand for multifamily housing financing …

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By Matt Hrubes and Joshua Allen, CBRE St. Louis is located at the crossroads of the U.S. at the intersection of I-55 (north/south) and I-70 (east/west), making it a prime location for industrial real estate users and developers alike. The Greater St. Louis area is separated by the Mississippi and Missouri rivers, giving it a natural division of industrial submarkets. Each side of the Mississippi River tells a different story as it relates to industrial real estate. Metro East To the east of the Mississippi River is the Metro East industrial submarket, which was the first in the area to offer real estate tax abatement, resulting in larger industrial developments ranging in size from 500,000 square feet to over 1 million square feet. Over the last decade, this area has seen some of the largest speculative developments in the region from national developers such as Panattoni, NorthPoint and Exeter, as well as local developers like TriStar.  Absorption had been at all-time highs with groups like Amazon, World Wide Technology, Geodis, Sam’s Club, P&G and Tesla leasing space as buildings were being completed. That is, until 2023 when a wave of space became available either through sublease, speculative development completions or …

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