By Jared Sullivan, The Lerner Co. The retail commercial real estate industry has been an interesting world to observe over the last several years, to say the least. From the repurposing of massive retail boxes and malls following the fall of Gordmans, Sports Authority, Sears and others, to the unpredictable global environment we have been experiencing over the last 12 months due to COVID-19. One thing that’s certain is the ability to quickly adapt within the retail world is a critical element to remain relevant as the mold of consumers’ needs continues to evolve. Fortunately for the Omaha and Lincoln retail markets, the downturn for businesses and consumers alike has been significantly less than the more densely populated cities and suburbs of New York and California. Nevertheless, the impact of government shutdowns and restrictions throughout 2020 has handicapped more businesses and landlords than we ever expected. As we emerge from this storm, we must ask ourselves “What will the retail landscape look like moving forward?” Here to stay One outcome of 2020 we anticipate seeing as a gold standard moving forward has been the implementation of curbside carryout and mobile order pickup services. While the concept of these services is …
Midwest Market Reports
By Ryan Duling and Andy Warnock, Lument Sizing up the Columbus, Ohio multifamily market is more challenging than it may seem to the casual observer. Neither fish nor fowl, Columbus doesn’t fit comfortably within the definitions of either growth or high-yield markets. Looked at from one angle, it appears largely suburban and conventional, but from another, increasingly sophisticated and demographically youthful. The presence of large institutions in the economic landscape — banks, healthcare systems, state government, universities — lend Columbus a slightly plodding image, but the heartbeat of the local economy is a dynamic group of middle market concerns punching above their weight class in logistics, professional services, retail and the digital spectrum. Metaphorically, it’s the cousin you considered a bit dull growing up who blossomed into an adult success. C-Bus’s relatively low population density, younger demographics and the relative ease of its transition to the work-from-home environment paid hefty dividends during the pandemic. Because infection and hospitalization rates were lower than average, the local economy was able to return to near normal in February, positioning the market to take full advantage of the stimulus-fueled economic recovery that could find its stride this summer. Labor market weathers pandemic Although COVID …
By Ted Bickel and Jeff Budish, Colliers MSP At the start of the pandemic last spring, conversations with developers, investors and operators varied from discouraging to catastrophic. Everyone expected the worst. Luckily for the industry, that is not what happened. Amid a year of great uncertainty across the economic spectrum, the Twin Cities multifamily market showed a great deal of resilience, overcoming many challenges in 2020. 2020 recap Considering that the marketplace was nearly frozen for the second quarter of 2020, overall transaction volume for 2020 was surprisingly strong. Minnesota saw a considerable uptick in activity toward the end of the year, driving annual totals up to just short of $1.3 billion. A strong bounce-back in the second half of the year speaks to strong demand drivers and generally solid operating performance — even during the economic shutdown. However, while vacancies did not run up, as many had feared, collections and bad debt suffered. Understandably, many tenants struggled to pay rent as stimulus waned later in the year. This had a notable effect on net operating income. Overall, pricing did not change, while cap rates lowered to some extent. Inexpensive debt, particularly from the agencies, was a large factor in …
By Joe Mahoney, Opus Development Co. Despite a confluence of major events in 2020 that shook our world — the pandemic, social unrest, historically high rates of unemployment — the industrial real estate market in the Twin Cities fared very well. While positive net absorption was limited in the second quarter of 2020, the rate accelerated to 1.1 million square feet during the fourth quarter and ended the year at 3.2 million square feet, according to CBRE Minneapolis-St. Paul. Active users also increased. In the beginning of 2020, there were 6.4 million square feet of users. At the end of the third quarter, that number had increased to 10 million, and by the end of the year, there were close to 12 million square feet of users, almost doubling over the course of the year. We see user demand continuing to trend up and accelerate this year. To support growth plans, users are looking for highly functional manufacturing, warehousing and distribution facilities. Many businesses are increasing efficiency and productivity by consolidating several obsolete buildings into one new highly functional, build-to-suit space. COVID-19 supply chain disruption has prompted some businesses to increase their footprint for storing more inventory and reducing reliance …
By Allen Rogoway, Cresa Chicago Over the past seven years, the Fulton Market office submarket has changed the landscape, and boundaries, of Chicago’s central business district (CBD) and what a “live-work” ecosystem can look like. Whereas the River North office submarket evolved over 30 years to become a low-cost alternative to the Loop for creative, boot-strapped companies requiring mostly small footprints, Fulton Market was developed for tech-centric, multinationals willing to pay “Trophy Tower” prices to attract and retain the very best talent. Employees didn’t mind adding a Chicago Transit Authority (CTA) transfer or 20 extra minutes to commute times each way in order to be in a neighborhood that was developed by big money yet felt authentic. Much of the architecture was preserved, and new construction was held to standards whereby the new mostly blended in with the area’s former produce, cold storage and century-old warehouses that had been converted for office use. Then old-guard companies and industries from accounting, consumer products and even law, started to set up shop in buildings that provided people with a very different workplace experience than what they were used to. Ownerships thoughtfully invested in tenant amenity spaces and retail pairings that matched with …
By Jeff Mulder, Colliers International Chicago By now, we all know that the COVID-19 pandemic has wreaked havoc across the world, affecting life as we knew it in the most unexpected ways. Our business, the business of office space, has been hit hard as companies almost instantly deferred or canceled real estate decisions and switched to work-from-home. The average occupancy of buildings in Chicago’s central business district (CBD) is currently 8.2 percent, according to the Building Owners and Managers Association. One year in, and corporations are still trying to determine the best path forward and what that will look like. But evidence of change, and some signs of what the future will look like, are slowly coming into focus. One noteworthy and reliable data point is sublease space. Colliers research reports that in the 20-plus-year history of Chicago’s office market, vacant sublease space offerings rise and peak within two to four quarters following major financial crises like the 2002 Tech Wreck and the 2009 Great Financial Crisis. Following these trends, current sublease space offerings in Chicago’s CBD have more than doubled since March 2020. Typically in the past, tenants in the market quickly absorbed sublease spaces that were offered — …
By Chris Bruzas, Berkadia Like all markets, Indianapolis is hoping for a return to more normal investment activity for commercial real estate in 2021. So far, the signs are positive, especially for the multifamily sector. The end of 2020 saw a pickup in multifamily sales activity nationally, a result of strong appetite from sidelined capital, continued positive collections trends and occupancy trends, and positive signals from the vaccine rollout. Demand forecasts Indianapolis has steadily been gaining favor with investors, given its economic stability, steady population growth and growing renter interest in secondary and tertiary markets. According to Berkadia’s 2021 forecast, Indianapolis continues to set the standard for urban renewal and economic development. Regional job creation, including at Bottleworks District, Indiana University Health and Amazon, continue to attract new residents. More than 13,000 apartment units were delivered in the past five years with demand continuing to rise. At the end of 2020, occupancy in the metro area was at 95.1 percent, reaching a 20-year peak. Underpinning healthy apartment occupancy is housing demand created by a consistent net migration of about 12,000 people annually and rising household formation. Current opportunities Like the rest of the country, Indianapolis continues to feel the impact …
By Steve Eisenshtadt, Friedman Real Estate 2020 was a challenging year for the office market. The pandemic caused record-high unemployment earlier in the year. Offices were forced to close, and employees quickly learned to work remotely since March. The office market in metropolitan Detroit ended 2020 with an 18.4 percent direct vacancy rate and 19.5 percent when adding in available sublease spaces, which increased to over 1 million square feet throughout the metropolitan area. In 2021, we expect to see a continued increase in direct and sublease availability, as the pandemic will keep offices closed for at least the first half of this year. Post-pandemic, many office users will integrate remote work practices, better social distancing and healthy building environments into their office plans. On a positive note, office tenants that have shelved their plans for relocations or expansions are now finally in the market forging ahead with some of their decisions. While their ultimate office space configuration may look different than what was planned pre-pandemic, it’s encouraging to see more tenants active in the market taking steps to figuring out their game plans. Let’s take a closer look at four major office submarkets in metropolitan Detroit. Downtown Detroit (CBD …
By Doug Fura, Farbman Group With 2020 in the rearview mirror, hopes for a healthier and more prosperous 2021 seem likely to lead to economic and development surges in markets across the country. In Detroit, where the industrial market has been a clear bright spot in a pandemic-altered development landscape, industry professionals remain optimistic that development momentum won’t be slowing anytime soon. How realistic is that optimism, where does industrial stand right now and what’s in store for Detroit? No signs of slowing down The Detroit industrial real estate market is easily the tightest I’ve seen at any point in the last 40+ years. We are seeing speculative construction for the first time in over a decade. Even more impressive is the fact that, for the most part, that space is being leased up before the buildings are completed. While construction costs are at record highs, they are still dramatically lower than in many/most other large markets across the country. E-commerce influence Who and what is driving that demand? The 500-pound gorilla is Amazon, but the boom in e-commerce extends well beyond one company, no matter how influential. The market was already evolving prior to the pandemic, but COVID-19 has …
By Evan Lyons, Encore Real Estate Investment Services Call it what you will — Motown, the Motor City, the Comeback City — by any name, the city of Detroit has long been a place of possibilities. A smart student in the school of hard knocks, Detroit has teetered on failure, yet still managed to graduate with high marks. Best known as the birthplace of the automobile and home to Motown music’s Hitsville USA, Detroit went from being the driver of American capitalism to a city in ruin. It endured population decline in the ’50s, rioting in the ’60s, the collapse of the auto industry in the late ’70s and ’80s, and in 2013, the largest municipal bankruptcy in U.S. history, yet somehow emerged as a hot spot for high rollers and hipsters alike. As 2019 winded down, Detroit and the surrounding Southeast Michigan area boasted a healthy economy. The automotive industry, a key driver of the region, posted better than expected sales of cars and trucks in the fourth quarter of 2019, beating projections. Employment was on the uptick both in the city and across the state. Southeast Michigan appeared positioned for growth in 2020. The same held true for …