Midwest Market Reports

Even in the context of a sustained stretch of national economic growth and a Midwest region where there are plenty of high-performing markets, Minneapolis-St. Paul stands out. The commercial real estate market in and around the Twin Cities is thriving, in large part due to some impressive structural fundamentals. Metrics and measurables The state of Minnesota — especially the Minneapolis-St. Paul metro area — has a very diverse base of employment, with a long list of significant Fortune 500 companies, including familiar and even iconic names like Target, Best Buy, 3M, U.S. Bancorp, General Mills, Medtronic, C.H. Robinson and United Health Care. United Health Care alone generated $226 billion in revenue in 2018. The economic and market diversity of the Twin Cities stands in contrast to some other Midwest markets, even some that are experiencing significant growth. The market has also experienced an exciting and ongoing uptick in workforce numbers and population growth, elevating Minneapolis-St. Paul far ahead of U.S. averages for both numbers — surpassing cities like Seattle, Atlanta and Washington, D.C. Forbes lists the state of Minnesota as among the nation’s top 10 “Best States for Business.” With 65 percent of the state’s population living in the Minneapolis-St. …

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It’s no secret that Grand Rapids is one of the fastest growing cities in the United States. Grand Rapids and its surrounding suburbs led much of Michigan’s population growth last year and have been continuously recognized by national surveys. Two studies conducted by WalletHub in late 2018 and early 2019 ranked Grand Rapids in the top 10 percent of cities analyzed as having one of the fastest growing economies and also ranked it in the top 30 percent of markets studied as being one of the best places to find a job. While it’s obvious that this growth in population and availability of jobs has been the key driver behind the increase in new multifamily developments, it has also had a major influence on the retail sector. From national restaurant chains and retailers to new local food and beverage concepts, key performance indicators such as low vacancy rates and increased rental rates are moving in a positive direction for the Grand Rapids commercial retail market. What retail apocalypse? These days, news articles related to retail properties across the nation may lead to a state of depression due to closings of  big box and chain stores that have been unable to …

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While most national investors and developers focus on larger Sun Belt and coastal markets such as Austin, Atlanta, Nashville and Phoenix, Time Equities has had great success investing in Grand Rapids and continues to believe strongly in the future potential of the area. As an opportunistic company, we often go where others do not, looking for markets and assets with strong risk-adjusted returns. Grand Rapids provides such an opportunity. The small city has been ascendant for the past decade and has a bright outlook. Its population and job growth equal many of the fastest-growing markets in the Sun Belt. Its economy is bolstered by large medical and education employers supported by impressive charitable contributions from the region’s wealthy families. In addition, the city also boasts a diversified economy with manufacturing, breweries and white-collar employment. And most importantly, it’s home to a burgeoning young and educated workforce. Grand Rapids’ combination of lifestyle, job market and affordability make it a regional draw. Grand Rapids experienced population growth of 41 percent from 2010 to 2017, compared with 22 percent for the Nashville metro area and 19 percent for the Dallas metro area. This growth was aided by a net migration of 31,285 people. …

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As a whole, commercial real estate in Columbus has experienced high levels of activity in recent years, and the office market has been no exception. The amount of new office space hitting the market has kept vacancy and average rental rates relatively flat, pacing the economic growth of the region. The vacancy rate has hovered around 6 to 7 percent, and the average rental rates are around $18 to $19 per square foot on a gross basis. Developers in the region are anticipating continued growth, so there is an additional 830,000 square feet of office space currently under construction. With that amount of new construction, we don’t expect the vacancy or rental rates to change dramatically in the coming year. Let’s look at the trends driving these numbers. Population, economic growth Columbus continues to grow quickly. Columbus offers residents a low cost of living, great drivability, plenty of amenities and economic opportunity. Since 2010, the metro area has grown by 10.8 percent, adding over 200,000 people, which makes Columbus the 14th-largest city in the United States with over 2 million total residents. The population growth hasn’t slowed down; from 2017 to 2018, the area grew 1.2 percent, and forecasts expect …

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Despite recent concerns of an imminent market correction, the Chicago central business district (CBD) still has room to run. There are many signs of optimism in the market, including continued healthy fundamentals and a wealth of redevelopment projects injecting new life and vibrancy into various submarkets. In the second quarter, downtown Chicago wrapped up its busiest quarter for office leasing since 2016. Additionally, the downtown office vacancy rate of 11.6 percent was the lowest it had been since 2016. To top it off, Chicago is experiencing historically high annual levels of net absorption, which potentially could put upward pressure on rents, and sublease space is relatively scarce. It’s hard to find stronger evidence of a robust CBD office market. Redevelopment projects Market statistics aside, noteworthy redevelopments have Chicagoans genuinely excited as they look forward to a new crop of influential spaces that will drive the next iteration of the Chicago office market. The real estate fairy tale that has real estate aficionados entranced — not only in Chicago but nationally — is 601W Cos.’ Old Post Office project at 433 W. Van Buren. More than 1 million square feet has already been leased at the 2.8 million-square-foot space, largely thanks …

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Chicago real estate has been the subject of considerable pessimism from local and national investors due to a variety of factors. Much of this can be blamed on our unfunded pension liability, which is expected to significantly increase real estate taxes across the area in the coming years. Many institutional multifamily investors claim that their data says to avoid Chicago. Instead, they seek multifamily properties at far lower returns and cap rates in places such as Nashville, Austin and Denver. While I believe those cities offer phenomenal investments, investors across the country are missing an amazing opportunity to invest in Chicago apartment properties. Real estate taxes Everyone seems to agree that real estate taxes will rise significantly in Chicago in the coming years. Who pays real estate taxes? Homeowners, commercial landlords and some businesses. Noticeably absent from this list are apartment renters who are generally unaffected by an increase in real estate taxes. In fact, a significant rise in residential real estate taxes should create even more demand for rental apartments in the Chicagoland area as would-be homeowners shift into the rental pool. Effect of high tax rates Do Chicagoans leave the city because of high tax rates? The data …

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The office market in St. Louis has remained very active over the past year. With very little speculative development, the St. Louis County vacancy rate for Class A office space has experienced little change but remains at a historic low of 11.1 percent. Demand remains for large blocks of space in the more desirable submarkets such as Clayton and West County, as there are limited options for existing space. This has created an opportunity for new, proposed office developments gaining securing commitments from large occupiers. Most, if not all, proposed multi-tenant office developments around St. Louis County are contingent upon significant leasing commitments before construction can commence. A few key trends have played a major role in why developers now have the ability to attract large tenants to new developments. Tenants searching for office space in excess of 25,000 square feet have been struggling to find contiguous and efficient options. Rental rates are at all-time highs, with some of the top-tier buildings achieving rents well over $30 per square foot. Lastly, tenants are using office space differently than before and new office developments are providing more efficient floor plates with multiple on-site amenities that tenants highly value today. Project examples …

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Our Twin Cities office market remains strong as the population of millennials and empty nesters continues to migrate to first- and second-ring areas, bringing revitalization and new investment into the city’s commerce and infrastructure. With vacancies remaining exceptionally low and fewer developments on the horizon, rents have shown consistent growth. We are seeing fewer new buildings under construction for single-tenant users. Most are geared toward multi-tenant, mixed-use concepts. Newly renovated buildings with many amenities are performing well in attracting and keeping tenants. With the metro’s unemployment right around 3 percent and employers with jobs to fill, tenants have the leverage. Offering modern and high-tech communal spaces with multiple amenities is key. Tenants and buyers are leveraging this trend, therefore spaces with the allure of contemporary and updated finishes are highly desired. It is imperative that landlords and owners renovate and update their buildings in order to stay relevant in today’s market. Many tenants are simply moving from one space to another nearby because it has been updated and improved upon. That is one of the bigger challenges — improvements that keep the space relevant. Space configurations Employers often offset higher rent costs by embracing space efficiency and flexible workspace strategies …

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The St. Louis industrial market continues to rally after posting 22 straight quarters of positive absorption. Record leasing activity and historically low vacancy have put the region on pace to deliver another 6.5 million square feet of Class A industrial space in 2019. This is in a market that averages deliveries of approximately 2.5 million square feet annually. Current drivers engendering this industrial activity include the following. Discipline Developers in St. Louis have long been known for their disciplined approach to building. Vacancy in a stable market hovers near 7 percent for the region. The vacancy rate for industrial space leading into the third quarter was 5 percent, up slightly from the previous quarter, according to CoStar. Continued speculative development, particularly in the Metro East, added to the increase. This, coupled with a large vacancy left in Lakeview Commerce Center by World Wide Technologies as it shuffles into a new 2 million-square-foot facility in Gateway Commerce Center East, were the most evident culprits. Expect vacancy to uptick slightly again in the third quarter as speculative deliveries by NorthPoint Development at Gateway Tradeport along with Exeter in Gateway Commerce Center come online. E-commerce No discussion surrounding the industrial market would be …

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As a team, we work heavily in mixed-use leasing and development sourcing. Our team handles the commercial leasing on many mixed-use projects within the Twin Cities market, where we also source and find locations for mixed-use apartment developers. This article will give a current snapshot of the mixed-use retail and apartment market within the Twin Cities. What types of projects? There are many three- to six-story, podium-style apartment buildings popping up all over the urban areas of Minneapolis-St. Paul. This product type can also be found in the suburbs. The first floor, or the podium, is constructed out of concrete and allows for up to five additional floors. This is very prevalent in our market and we don’t see this changing soon. However, advanced timber construction is just starting to show itself in the Twin Cities. The mid-rise and high-rise multifamily buildings are mostly contained to the urban core areas. These projects are all concrete construction. It took up until the last five years or so to see major grocers occupy the first floor. We have observed many examples of this and have worked with some of the large nationals as well as larger, local grocers.  Mixed-use does not appear …

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