Midwest Market Reports

It’s no longer a secret. Residential housing is one of the biggest stories to hit Cleveland’s central business district in over a quarter century. The only thing more impressive than the long list of residential projects that have been completed over the last five years is an even longer list of residential projects that are either planned or under construction. Despite this prolonged surge in activity, several questions remain, with most centered around the viability and sustainability of this sector. But before we take a look forward, let’s first take a look back. Downtown Cleveland has added approximately 1,700 new rental units over the past five years, with the total residential rental inventory standing at nearly 5,900 units. Last year alone saw 573 new units come on line as the direct result of converting nearly 500,000 square feet of former commercial and office space to residential. But despite this additional inventory, the occupancy rate has increased nearly 2 percent over the last five years, ending 2015 at 97.5 percent. Population surge in CBD  The downtown area contains approximately 14,000 residents, a 79 percent increase since 2000, according to a newly released report from the Downtown Cleveland Alliance. The average rent …

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For the Dayton office market, it’s all about timing. In one of Miami Valley’s largest office leases in recent memory, CareSource early this year signed a five-year lease to occupy 50,000 square feet on two floors at the 486,000-square-foot Kettering Tower downtown. The nonprofit managed healthcare plan is the largest Medicaid plan in Ohio and the second largest in the United States. CareSource said it will assess current and future business needs and redistribute business units from corporate headquarters and offices at 40 W. Second St. to Kettering Tower. In addition, some staff hired during the first quarter of this year also will be placed at the new location. The CareSource location at Kettering Tower increases the company’s footprint to nearly 600,000 square feet in downtown Dayton. The four downtown Dayton locations  — including CareSource’s corporate headquarters at 230 N. Main St., Ballpark Village at 220 E. Monument Ave., offices at 40 W. Second St. and Kettering Tower will support 2,200 staff. The $6 million build-out of the multi-tenant Kettering Tower is specifically designed to accommodate CareSource. Tower Partners LLC, an entity whose investors include New York businessman Albert Macanian, owns the building. But the deal bringing 300 new jobs …

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With a three-year average occupancy of 96 percent, Omaha’s apartment market has displayed strong fundamentals that we expect to continue this year and beyond. Given the strong tailwinds created by Omaha’s healthy economy — the local unemployment rate stood at 3.6 percent in January compared with 4.9 percent nationally — it is not surprising that occupancy is high, rents and revenues are rising and new developments continue. According to the recently released IREM fall 2015 Omaha Metropolitan Area Apartment Survey, the year-end market occupancy rate was a strong 96 percent, with the lowest submarket at 94 percent and the highest at an outstanding 98 percent. On a 10-year historical basis, the Omaha market’s occupancy rate has ranged from a low of 92 percent in 2008 to a high of 96 percent in both 2013 and 2015. Any owner will tell you a solid two percent gain in occupancy over a multi-year period has a significant impact on net operating income. Both rents and revenues continue to grow within the Omaha market. Most owners have been raising rents between 2 and 4 percent a year, and in some cases 5 percent. The general expectation is that rents and revenues will both …

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The commercial real estate market in West Michigan was quite active in 2015 across all property sectors, including one massive data center deal that is expected to spur billions of dollars in investment. Both new development and transactions involving existing facilities drove deal volume in 2015. Consequently, vacancy rates dropped while leasing rates generally rose. We expect a high level of commercial real estate activity this year as well. A lack of inventory for existing product will continue to drive new development in 2016. Industrial Strength  The industrial market, in particular, has experienced a shortage of quality product to satisfy the demands of distribution companies from across the area. The greater Grand Rapids industrial market consists of approximately 115 million square feet. At the end of 2015, the vacancy rate was 4.1 percent. This marks a significant improvement compared with the depths of the Great Recession when the vacancy rate approached 10 percent. For the first time in years, we are seeing speculative development across all sizes of industrial properties. Lease rates for these speculative buildings are significantly higher than what we have experienced in the recent past due to the relatively high cost of construction. The good news for …

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It is difficult to find one aspect of the Omaha industrial market to highlight when recapping 2015. Quite frankly, about every single facet of the market improved last year: sale prices ticked up, land prices rose, absorption was positive, the vacancy rate was low, asking rental rates climbed, and there was plenty of new construction. There are no signs of this momentum slowing. What is even more telling is the steady trend in the same direction — the market has shown signs of improvement each of the last five years. There have not been one or two transactions skewing the metric. Sales prices of existing industrial property averaged $56 per square foot in 2015, and over 2 million square feet of inventory was sold. This is quite a jump over the average of $47 per square foot in 2014. We believe this uptick in sales prices is due to a number of factors, but most notably a combination of high demand, low inventory of platted industrial lots and high construction costs. Users have been forced to make a choice — build new product or rehab existing buildings. This dilemma has created a bit of an odd and possibly concerning scenario: …

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The Toledo industrial real estate market continued its steady improvement in the second half of 2015. Tenant demand for space was solid at a time when virtually no new speculative space was added, which led to a shrinking vacancy rate. At the end of 2015, the vacancy rate stood at 6.8 percent, down from 7.2 percent at mid-year and 7.7 percent at the end of 2014. The market absorbed 564,947 square feet in the last half of 2015 on top of the 632,775 square feet absorbed in the first half of the year. With vacancy rates contracting, the overall average asking rental rate in the Toledo industrial market rose 10 cents to $3.14 per square foot between June 2015 and the end of the year. We have commented in prior reports on the dearth of new speculative construction in the region. This trend continues. Only one speculative building has been constructed in the market since well before the Great Recession. That building — a 100,000-square-foot warehouse/distribution building located in Overland Industrial Park in the North Toledo submarket and developed by Harmon Family Properties — was delivered in the second half of 2015. As of December 2015, the building was still …

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We can expect to see a combination of new and familiar trends in the Milwaukee apartment sector in 2016 that will continue to attract investors to the local apartment market. What makes the start of 2016 different from 2015 is progress toward the normalization of monetary policy. In December, the Federal Reserve Board decided to raise the federal funds rate by a quarter percentage point, the first such increase in nearly a decade. The Federal Reserve Board’s widening may have an impact on the short-term rates, but the long-term interest rates that impact real estate values the most are influenced by the yields on the long-term U.S. Treasury bonds. We expect the long-term interest rates to stay low for the foreseeable future. When there is high demand for the Treasury bonds, the price of the bonds increase and the yields decrease, keeping long-term lending rates low. The two factors responsible for driving rates down in early 2016 are the high levels of volatility in stock markets around the globe and the drastic drop in oil prices. The volatility in the stock markets drives global capital to flow into the safe haven of bonds, and specifically the U.S. Treasury bonds, as …

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The greater Indianapolis industrial market has experienced incredible growth over the past three years, and it continues to be one of the most sought-after industrial markets in the country. Supply and demand is the big story in early 2016. Because shovel-ready land is difficult to find, demand for land alternatives is pushing development further and further away from the beltway while simultaneously causing land prices to escalate. Local communities that figure out how to competitively bring shovel-ready land to the market will reap great rewards. There is strong demand for space across the industrial sector, with second-generation and medium-size distribution space outpacing the other industrial product types. Those seeking smaller, single-tenant buildings under 50,000 square feet are realizing how difficult they are to find. Additionally, the supply of available speculative space in the greater Indianapolis market has been on everyone’s radar for the past two years. Demand for spec space is catching up to the supply as evidenced by several new leases signed since the end of 2015. Currently, there is approximately 2.2 million square feet of industrial product under construction, including 1.4 million square feet of speculative development and 800,000 square feet of build-to-suit construction. Game changer The e-commerce …

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Metropolitan Milwaukee has experienced a robust industrial real estate market for the past several years. This strength should continue in 2016 and for the foreseeable future. Like many other metro areas, Milwaukee’s industrial sector experienced slow but steady economic growth as it emerged from the Great Recession. However, unlike many other metro areas, Milwaukee has not yet exhibited a strong uptick in new industrial development. Minimal speculative construction has occurred during the past few years. Consequently, while demand for industrial space has continued to increase, supply has remained fairly flat. This phenomenon of increased absorption without a corresponding increase in new product coming to market has driven down the overall vacancy rate to slightly under 5 percent, near a record low, according to Xceligent. Moreover, the new industrial development that has occurred has been primarily driven by users expanding, relocating or consolidating existing facilities, or by new build-to-suit or speculative developments undertaken by Milwaukee-based firms such as Zilber Property Group, Luterbach Properties, Briohn Building and Wangard Partners. Larger regional and national industrial developers such as Centerpoint Properties and First Industrial Realty Trust, which once drove industrial development in Milwaukee, ceased construction in Milwaukee during the Great Recession and have not …

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When talking about the retail sector, the economy has to be part of the conversation. Trends in retail concepts follow consumer behavior. In 2010, when the recovery began, wealthy consumers were the first to return to the marketplace. Not surprisingly, luxury retail concepts followed these wealthy shoppers. To appeal to consumers who were experiencing a slower recovery and to address the concerns of consumers who were still budget-conscious coming out of the downturn, discount retailers and off-price concepts also flooded the market at the same time. These two ends of the spectrum have dominated the retail landscape, leading to challenges for the middle-priced retailers. Despite the acceleration of the economic recovery, these retailers will continue to face challenges as many consumers have maintained a fiscally conservative, or even frugal, mindset. E-Commerce Has Clout The prediction that the advent of the Internet would spell the death of the brick-and-mortar store has not come to fruition. However, e-commerce’s impact on retail is certainly undeniable. Although 75 percent of retail sales still take place in stores, consumers are becoming more educated about products and prices as a result of the Internet. Consumer surveys show that 75 percent of millennials use the Internet to …

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