Midwest Market Reports

The greater Indianapolis industrial market has experienced incredible growth over the past three years, and it continues to be one of the most sought-after industrial markets in the country. Supply and demand is the big story in early 2016. Because shovel-ready land is difficult to find, demand for land alternatives is pushing development further and further away from the beltway while simultaneously causing land prices to escalate. Local communities that figure out how to competitively bring shovel-ready land to the market will reap great rewards. There is strong demand for space across the industrial sector, with second-generation and medium-size distribution space outpacing the other industrial product types. Those seeking smaller, single-tenant buildings under 50,000 square feet are realizing how difficult they are to find. Additionally, the supply of available speculative space in the greater Indianapolis market has been on everyone’s radar for the past two years. Demand for spec space is catching up to the supply as evidenced by several new leases signed since the end of 2015. Currently, there is approximately 2.2 million square feet of industrial product under construction, including 1.4 million square feet of speculative development and 800,000 square feet of build-to-suit construction. Game changer The e-commerce …

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Metropolitan Milwaukee has experienced a robust industrial real estate market for the past several years. This strength should continue in 2016 and for the foreseeable future. Like many other metro areas, Milwaukee’s industrial sector experienced slow but steady economic growth as it emerged from the Great Recession. However, unlike many other metro areas, Milwaukee has not yet exhibited a strong uptick in new industrial development. Minimal speculative construction has occurred during the past few years. Consequently, while demand for industrial space has continued to increase, supply has remained fairly flat. This phenomenon of increased absorption without a corresponding increase in new product coming to market has driven down the overall vacancy rate to slightly under 5 percent, near a record low, according to Xceligent. Moreover, the new industrial development that has occurred has been primarily driven by users expanding, relocating or consolidating existing facilities, or by new build-to-suit or speculative developments undertaken by Milwaukee-based firms such as Zilber Property Group, Luterbach Properties, Briohn Building and Wangard Partners. Larger regional and national industrial developers such as Centerpoint Properties and First Industrial Realty Trust, which once drove industrial development in Milwaukee, ceased construction in Milwaukee during the Great Recession and have not …

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When talking about the retail sector, the economy has to be part of the conversation. Trends in retail concepts follow consumer behavior. In 2010, when the recovery began, wealthy consumers were the first to return to the marketplace. Not surprisingly, luxury retail concepts followed these wealthy shoppers. To appeal to consumers who were experiencing a slower recovery and to address the concerns of consumers who were still budget-conscious coming out of the downturn, discount retailers and off-price concepts also flooded the market at the same time. These two ends of the spectrum have dominated the retail landscape, leading to challenges for the middle-priced retailers. Despite the acceleration of the economic recovery, these retailers will continue to face challenges as many consumers have maintained a fiscally conservative, or even frugal, mindset. E-Commerce Has Clout The prediction that the advent of the Internet would spell the death of the brick-and-mortar store has not come to fruition. However, e-commerce’s impact on retail is certainly undeniable. Although 75 percent of retail sales still take place in stores, consumers are becoming more educated about products and prices as a result of the Internet. Consumer surveys show that 75 percent of millennials use the Internet to …

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The hotel industry has gained momentum over the last few years, with impressive increases in revenue per available room (RevPAR) and a continuing development boom in virtually all major markets across the Midwest and the nation. In the Chicago hotel market, RevPAR increased 7.2 percent in 2014 on a year-over-basis, according to STR Inc., and RevPAR was up 7.7 percent through the first 11 months of 2015. With consumer demand so strong and the development pipeline quite active, it might feel like the challenges of the last recession are long in the past. The reality, however, is that in a cyclical market the next downturn is never too far away. There are some indications that the ride may be slowing down and that the good times the region and the industry have enjoyed in recent years may be coming to an end. Oversupply Concerns While Chicago’s construction pipeline is smaller than a number of other metropolitan areas, it is the Windy City’s most robust development pipeline in recent memory. In aggregate, there will be a 20 percent increase in the room supply over three years. That could easily balloon to 25 percent with projects recently announced.  This is very likely …

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Strong renter demand in the metro St. Louis apartment market helped boost annual effective rent growth by 3.6 percent in 2015, 200 basis points above the market’s long-term average, according to Axiometrics. An estimated 1,012 apartment units were delivered to the St. Louis market for all of 2015 compared with 2,378 units of absorption during the same period, reports Axiometrics. But with numerous projects in the pipeline, that ratio is likely to change over the next few years, say real estate experts. “We expect supply levels to increase in 2017 and for absorption to begin to struggle to keep up due to slowing job growth,” says Sophie Zatterstrom Gore, analyst with Axiometrics. But 2016 is a different story, she points out. Robust job growth will help absorption outpace new supply by about 600 units in 2016: 1,587 units of absorption versus 990 units of new supply. Such strong demand is giving a strong lift to real estate fundamentals in the local apartment sector. The average effective rent in the third quarter of 2015 was $914, which Axiometrics projects will rise to $948 by the end of 2016. The average vacancy rate is projected to fall from 6.3 percent at the …

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Without question 2015 was a “great year” for the St. Louis retail market, says Adam Glosier, senior vice president with Colliers International. “New users entered the market and few vacated. The St. Louis retail landscape benefitted from the continued expansion of organic grocers, sporting goods operators, quick service restaurants and soft goods retailers.” At the end of the third quarter, the vacancy rate stood at 7.1 percent, unchanged from the prior quarter but down from 8.2 percent a year earlier, according to CoStar Group. Net absorption totaled 579,206 square feet during the third quarter, bringing the year-to-date total to just under 900,000 square feet. Six new retail buildings were delivered in the third quarter, which collectively brought 612,595 square feet to the market. The gross leasable area (GLA) of the 29 buildings under construction at the end of the third quarter totaled 915,751 square feet. “There was a lot of activity in 2015 in the freestanding and small retailer market, as well as activity from junior anchors,” says Christopher Zoellner, senior vice president of retail with Balke Brown Transwestern. “This has created strong activity and a good pipeline going into 2016.” IKEA Makes ‘Big Splash’ A few retailers opening new …

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The long-held perception of the Milwaukee office market is that it mostly trades tenants between buildings with one landlord winning at the other’s expense, while the overall pie remains the same size. However, with cranes dotting the horizon, large blocks of vacant space quickly leasing up, a number of major new developments waiting to break ground, and the inflow of outside dollars into Milwaukee, the market has recently experienced some amazing deal velocity. This activity is expected to continue as we head into 2016. However, the office market could slow down due to the completion of several projects currently under construction. The greater Milwaukee office vacancy rate stood at 15.5 percent in the third quarter, down slightly from 15.6 percent in the third quarter of 2014. The vacancy rate in the central business district (CBD) dropped from 16.2 percent to 14.9 percent during the same period. Meanwhile, rental rates have increased slightly in both the overall market and the CBD. Cranes in the skies Construction on the Northwestern Mutual Tower and Commons began in late 2014 in downtown Milwaukee and is scheduled for completion in late 2017. A 32-story office tower will adjoin a two-block-long, three-story space known as The Commons. The new development …

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The office sector in the northern suburbs of Indianapolis shows clear signs of solid growth and stability with new construction and deeper tenant demand for space, particularly in the Class A segment. A number of factors contribute to this trend, including job growth, availability of land for housing and favorable demographics. Decision-makers live in the northern suburbs along with families, empty nesters and educated workers. Nearly 90 percent of all suburban office space in greater Indianapolis is located north of 71st Street in five key submarkets: North/Carmel, Keystone, Northwest, the Fishers/I-69 Corridor and Northeast/Castleton. Five I-465 interchanges define these five northern suburban office submarkets of Indianapolis, providing workers efficient access to 17.5 million square feet of office space. Through the third quarter of this year, overall occupancy in these five suburban submarkets stood at nearly 85 percent. The occupancy rate for Class A space was considerably higher at 89 percent. There are only seven blocks of contiguous office space 100,000 square feet or greater available in the suburbs and downtown — four of which are located in the northern suburbs. These spaces include 133,000 square feet at Two Concourse, 10194 Crosspoint Blvd.; 113,000 square feet at the former Charles Schwab …

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Traverse City may be known as a small resort town on the shores of Lake Michigan, but each year it grows in popularity. And more commercial real estate players are taking notice. In the past year, Traverse City has been named one of the “Top 20 Best Small Towns in the U.S. to Visit” (Smithsonian); “One of the 50 Best Places to Live in America” (Men’s Journal); “One of the 10 Must See Cities in America” (Horizon Travel Magazine); “One of 10 U.S. Destinations on the Rise” (TripAdvisor); and “One of America’s 20 Most Romantic Towns” (Travel + Leisure). Tourism is on the rise as we become known as a region not only for cherries, but also for great restaurants, wineries, microbreweries, recreational trails for hiking and biking, skiing, festivals and a great place to live. With increasing notoriety comes pressure for development, and Traverse City is no exception. We have seen more development and projects in the pipeline in the past 12 months than we have seen since the height of the real estate boom 10 years ago. Tourists will be happy to note more hotel rooms in the downtown area as the new Hotel Indigo nears completion. The …

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Improving real estate fundamentals in the St. Louis office market are opening the floodgates to new construction that is greatly needed as large occupiers are finding limited, if any, existing available options. Over the past few years, the gap between rent for existing office properties and new properties was too great to justify construction. Until now, that is. The St. Louis employment base is finally reaching a pre-recession level with continued growth in the healthcare, information technology and engineering industries. The centrally located and more affluent residential areas — the West County and Clayton submarkets in particular — are experiencing higher occupancies and increasing rental rates. Clayton historically has been the best-performing submarket in St. Louis and still is today, while West County is situated near mid- to upper-level income workers. Development has and will continue to follow these highly sought after submarkets as they offer the metro area’s best real estate fundamentals and returns. Add to all of those factors a lack of new product in the past several years — plus a Class A vacancy rate of 10 percent — and you have an ideal climate for new construction. Pivotal project is catalyst The announcement that St. Louis-based …

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