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Northeast Market Reports

Market ReportsNew YorkNortheastNortheast Market ReportsOffice

Cross-Border Investments Continue to Surge in Manhattan

by Camren Skelton

As the U.S. economy passes through the third largest expansion cycle in the economic history, every sector in the economy has seen phenomenal growth over the last six to seven years. The growth in other industries has had a trickle-down effect on the real estate sector. U.S. real estate has seen rents surging and even surpassing the previous expansion cycle, as well as an increase in leasing and absorption activity and a record rise in the value of sales transactions. Manhattan has always been at the epicenter of this real estate growth. With the combination of developed market and investment-grade properties, Manhattan has regularly attracted the majority of foreign direct investment in the real estate sector throughout the country. Increased demand from TAMI (technology, advertising, media and information) and FIRE (finance, insurance and real estate) sector tenants have made these properties an attractive investment option for both the local institutional investors and foreign direct investment. The Manhattan commercial real estate market has seen a 33 percent (see footnote 1) increase in the transactions above $1,000 per square foot over the last seven years. These values are no longer limited to only trophy properties in Midtown but have spread across both Midtown …

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Market ReportsNew YorkNortheastNortheast Market ReportsRetail

Retailers Take Advantage of New Opportunities in Manhattan

by Camren Skelton

The news is rife with stories regarding retail bankruptcies, store closures, challenges facing conventional shopping centers, and consolidations by department and specialty stores. Although not immune to some of these challenges, the Manhattan retail environment has enjoyed much activity during the second half of 2016 and the first part of 2017. To be sure, some submarkets and certain retail corridors have seen an increase in vacancies and a corresponding fall in asking rents. However, a number of new retailers have entered the market and certain strong retail brands have right-sized or repositioned themselves in the market. One high-profile shopping center opened its doors, and there is considerable retail development underway. It’s a big story but here are some highlights. Lower Manhattan There has been considerable focus on Lower Manhattan in the past several years, and this continues. On the grand scale, the opening in August 2016 of Westfield’s World Trade Center was the culmination of years in planning, constructing and leasing this $1.4 billion development. This multi-level project contains an assortment of national and international tenants, including fast fashion and better retail stores, such as Victoria’s Secret, Sephora, H&M, John Varvatos and London Jewelers. A 60,000-square-foot Eataly is the principal …

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Market ReportsMultifamilyNew JerseyNortheastNortheast Market Reports

New Jersey’s Post-Suburban Economy Feeds Statewide Multifamily Investment

by Camren Skelton

With city-like, apartment-rental living back in vogue, New Jersey — from its urban centers to its suburban bedroom communities — is transitioning to more walkable, transit-focused neighborhoods. From Northern, Central and Southern Jersey’s green, well-manicured garden-apartment courtyards to the sleek Class A high-rises peppering Hudson County’s Gold Coast, multifamily living and investment are catalysts for sustained statewide economic and population growth. The groundwork for this trend — and the ensuing surge in construction expected to peak this year — was established a few years back with the emergence of a state-incentivized transit village designation program. While this movement started in 1999 as a means to revitalize transit-friendly communities through mixed-use development, municipal leaders have only begun to embrace and leverage this type of development and private investment long associated with urban centers. Today, New Jersey has 32 state-­designated transit villages and a multitude of emerging transit centers. Early designees include Pleasantville (Atlantic County), Journal Square/Jersey City, Morristown, South Amboy, South Orange, Rahway, Cranford and Matawan. Most recently, they have been joined by relative newcomers like East Orange, Summit, Plainfield, Irvington, Park Ridge and Hackensack as well as budding hubs such as Harrison. One example of how multifamily investment is leveraging …

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Market ReportsNew JerseyNortheastNortheast Market ReportsRetail

Non-Traditional Retailers Are Behind Much of the Leasing Activity in New Jersey

by Camren Skelton

Business was brisk in 2016 for retail real estate brokers in Central and Northern New Jersey. As online shopping continued to impact which retailers fill brick and mortar spaces, several trends emerged at malls and along New Jersey’s highways. The shrinking list of retail categories in which customers prefer or need to visit a store in person includes quick-serve and sit-down restaurants. Chick-fil-A opened new stores in Woodbridge and Jersey City; Chipotle in Holmdel; and Habit Burger in Eatontown, West Windsor, River Edge and Parsippany. Also on the list are gas stations, coffee shops, and convenience stores, including Street Corner, WaWa, Tim Horton’s, Quick Check, and 7-Eleven, which have all recently opened new locations, are under construction or are planning to open new stores throughout the state. Creative and art businesses also draw customers to brick and mortar locations. One River School of Art & Design, currently open in Englewood, is opening a second location in Allendale, and plans a roll-out nationally including a strong look at the Bell Works project in Holmdel. This art school for kids and adults and other creative concepts, such as the paint and sip retailers, remain very strong. School of Rock is another creative …

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Market ReportsMassachusettsNortheastNortheast Market ReportsRetail

E-commerce Impacts Retail Market in Eastern Massachusetts

by Taylor Williams

Retail vacancy levels declined in 2012 and 2013 in Eastern Massachusetts following several years of rising vacancy rates during the Great Recession. But since 2013, vacancy rates have been on the rise as shopping habits continue to tilt toward online options. In 2016, retail inventory gained modestly, reaching 194.2 million square feet, an increase of 0.5 percent, although no major center opened during the year. The region added 488,800 square feet of vacant retail space, and the vacancy rate increased to 9 percent. Big box closings — notably Sam’s Club, JCPenney, and Kmart — and the departures of Citibank and City Sports, were the primary cause of increasing vacancy. Nonetheless, the region experienced positive absorption, netting 573,600 square feet. As reported in The KeyPoint Report: Eastern Massachusetts/Greater Boston, Boston and Cambridge ranked one and two in the list of top 10 towns by retail square footage. Abington tops the rankings for lowest vacancy rate. Eight of the top 10 towns with the highest vacancy rates are repeats from the previous year; new additions include Wrentham, site of the 135,000-square-foot Wrentham Crossing, which is vacant and currently for sale. The under-2,500-square-foot size classification remains the largest segment of the market, and …

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IndustrialMarket ReportsMassachusettsNortheastNortheast Market Reports

E-commerce Activity Drives Boston Industrial Vacancy to Lowest Rate in 15 Years

by Taylor Williams

E-commerce and the growth of the digital age have become important factors in the tightening industrial real estate market. With single-digit vacancy rates becoming the norm in nearly all of the Greater Boston submarkets, existing product cannot supply the space necessary to meet current market demand. Consumers’ shopping attitudes have changed, and retailers are having to adjust their strategies to meet their needs. In 2016, the Greater Boston industrial market recorded vacancies averaging 6.8 percent, the lowest in more than 15 years. The thriving e-commerce industry has been a large factor in the spike in demand. Last year, major e-commerce tenants like Amazon, FedEx and Wayfair expanded their presence in the Boston market with new leases on distribution centers, pushing 2016 absorption to almost 6 million square feet, an all-time record. Retailers are now looking to expand their coverage with multiple warehousing locations, pushing for facilities proximate to their specified consumer base. Instead of having one regional warehouse/distribution center, retail giants have zeroed in on infill submarkets surrounding cities to locate multiple warehouses close to the population center. Just last year, Amazon leased a 96,600-square-foot warehouse in Everett, minutes from Downtown Boston, which would become a base for grocery and …

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Market ReportsMassachusettsNortheastNortheast Market ReportsOffice

Boston Office Market Continues Its Run of Positive Returns

by Camren Skelton

Greater Boston’s office market is continuing a very strong streak, closing 2016 and the fourth quarter on a good note. The year saw 1.4 million square feet positively absorbed with 789,000 square feet absorbed in the fourth quarter. The current vacancy rate is 12.7 percent, slightly lower than the market average over the last five years of 13.6 percent. Average Class A asking rents are $43.12 per square foot, which has appreciated 9.1 percent in the last three years. Neither the quarter nor the year are aberrations. The market is on an extended run of positive returns. Office space in the Greater Boston market has now seen positive absorption in 14 of the last 15 quarters, accumulating 12 million square feet positively absorbed over that period. The Boston CBD contributed 59,000 square feet of positive absorption in the fourth quarter, decreasing the vacancy rate 0.1 percentage points to 9.6 percent. The most absorption of the CBD submarkets occurred in the Financial District, which saw 69,000 square feet positively absorbed. Average Class A asking rents are currently $55.09 per square foot in the CBD, led by Back Bay, which has an average asking rate of $62.51 per square foot. Across the …

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Market ReportsMassachusettsMultifamilyNortheastNortheast Market Reports

Key Factors Driving Greater Boston’s Multifamily Outlook in 2017

by Camren Skelton

Investors are attracted to Boston due to its diverse economy, education base and strong market fundamentals. In fact, major corporations like GE, Reebok, New Balance, and most recently Asics have all relocated to the city or are in the planning to relocate or rebrand here. As a result of this heightened interest in Boston as a global headquarters destination, the city is expected to grow, which in turn creates housing demand. Rhythm between Cap Rates and Interest Rates As investors know, there is a direct correlation between cap rates and interest rates. However, while a correlation exists, not all buyer profiles are necessarily affected in the same way in a shifting interest rate environment. Highest impact:  Leveraged buyers would be most impacted by rising interest rates since they are typically trying to maximize leverage when pursuing an acquisition. With shifting interest rates, higher rates have a direct impact to potential returns. If leveraged buyers can borrow less at high rates, this has a direct impact to pricing/cap rates. Within the leveraged buyer profile, groups possessing strong balance sheets and banking relationships will be less impacted than groups not necessarily in the same financial position. Moderate impact:  Cash and low-leverage buyers …

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IndustrialMarket ReportsNortheastNortheast Market ReportsPennsylvania

Philadelphia Continues to Be One of the Top Performing Industrial Markets in U.S.

by Camren Skelton

Philadelphia is well positioned in the Northeast to flourish in the industrial sector in 2017. With a centralized position in the Boston-New York-Washington, D.C. corridor, Philadelphia has capitalized on its superb location to firmly establish itself as a distribution hub leading to sustained positive momentum in all key market sectors. The e-commerce market has been experiencing significant growth and the demand for near immediacy in delivery has been the driving force behind the strong performance of the industrial sector nationwide over the past few years, especially in the Northeast. In 2016, the industrial sector in greater Philadelphia had a banner year for absorption with a net positive of 9.27 million square feet absorbed. That represents the largest growth in occupancy since the onset of the Great Recession and places Philadelphia among the top performing markets in the U.S. for net absorption in 2016. Vacancy rates for the region have fallen to 6.9 percent — the lowest they’ve been since 2008. Asking rental rates rose steadily throughout 2016 and stood at $4.77 per square foot at year-end – the highest they’ve been since 2008. Following a record year for industrial sales in 2015, sales volume remained strong in the greater Philadelphia …

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Market ReportsMultifamilyNortheastNortheast Market ReportsPennsylvania

Philadelphia Multifamily Sees Robust Construction, Expects to Maintain Occupancy

by Camren Skelton

Center City Philadelphia continues to be one of the most vibrant residential downtowns in the country. Millennials and empty-nesters are attracted to the city’s myriad live, work and play opportunities, and the total number of Greater Center City residents has risen 17 percent since 2000. Overall the market is holding up strong; the average occupancy is 95 percent and it is expected to remain at this level for the foreseeable future. Annual effective rent growth is projected to be 3 percent in 2017 and average 2.8 percent from 2018 to 2020. The MSA’s largest job sector — higher education and healthcare services — has increased by 17 percent since 2005 and now provides 37 percent of all jobs in Philadelphia. Total job growth is projected to be 1.6 percent or more than 15,000 new jobs in 2017. Since the beginning of 2015, 23 companies, including EisnerAmper, WeWork and GSI Health, have established offices in the submarket. Multifamily investors and developers have been focused on Center City for the past few years. However, interest in some suburban markets has increased significantly as evidenced by the development and sale activity in 2016. More than $1 billion of sale transactions were recorded in …

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