Northeast Market Reports

With increasing rental rates, strong investor demand for core product and record levels of speculative construction, spirits are high in the Lehigh Valley with regard to industrial real estate opportunities. The record volume of product deliveries the past two years underscores the strong industrial demand in the Lehigh Valley. Vacancy has dropped from 15.9 percent in the first quarter of 2009 to a record-low 4.9 percent at the end of 2015, according to CoStar. The average net industrial rental rate jumped 11.1 percent during the past 18 months, an even more impressive figure when compared against the 10-year average of 1.65 percent rental rate growth in Lehigh Valley for modern distribution buildings. After many years of flat rental growth, year-end 2015 industrial leases were completed in the $4.75- to $4.95-per-square-foot range in the Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, Pennsylvania MSA. In 2016, expect a modest increase in rental rates as the delivery of new construction across the northeastern Pennsylvania region will slow growth and push vacancy rates higher. Leasing activity has been broadly distributed along the regional I-78 and I-81/I-80 corridors. Within the valley, industrial growth has occurred primarily along the main interchanges of I-78, U.S. 22 and Route 33. In the past 12 …

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PHARMA-LEASING-NJ-2016

By many measures, 2015 was Northern New Jersey’s best year for its office market in quite some time. Tenants leased 11.7 million square feet, the strongest annual activity since 2003. Business confidence improved and companies showed a growing willingness to invest in their workforce and workplace. The number of larger leases dropped off a bit in 2015, though, as many of the largest space searches were fulfilled and fewer quality space options remained in some of the most sought after areas. Tenants have no shortage of options in much of Morris County and Newark, but steady leasing in Metropark and Jersey City’s waterfront has pushed availability below 15 percent. Smaller and mid-sized tenants can still find space in these locations, but there are far fewer big blocks of quality space remaining. There were fewer larger leases in 2015, but tenants were very mobile: relocations outnumbered renewals by two to one with 12 firms opting to move and six renewing. An analysis of larger leases (deals over 40,000 square feet) signed since 2009 shows that larger tenants renewed slightly less than 50 percent of the time (81 firms moved and 75 renewed). From a supply perspective, market conditions have been ideal …

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Although it would appear that retail landlords in New York City are reaping the benefit of high rents — and many are, if they bought at the right time — demand has declined and leasing velocity has slowed, mostly due to inflated landlord expectations, tenant hesitancy and increased supply from tenant defaults. Yes, the Manhattan retail leasing market has softened, but not enough to significantly reduce historically high asking rents. For example, the fourth quarter of 2015 saw ground-floor average asking rent decreasing in the majority of the major corridors over the second quarter 2015. Fifth Avenue, from 49th to 59th, saw an 8 percent decrease; Madison, from 57th to 72nd, saw a 5 percent decrease; West 34th Street, from Fifth to Seventh avenues, saw a 16 percent decrease; and Broadway, from Houston to Broome, saw a 15 percent decrease. The corridors which saw rent increases were modest compared to the rises we saw in early 2015 and 2014. While this is in part due to increasing supply, an adjustment in landlord expectations is having the greatest impact. High rates of default and eviction have plagued New York City for years, mostly due to inexperienced tenants relying on unrealistic revenue …

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In New York City, sizable tenants are renewing their office leases and expanding work space. Citywide, office space searches are being driven by new businesses that need to establish presence. These dynamics have the office market operating as powerfully and effectively as possible. New York City organizations are slated to create 80,000 new jobs this year, expanding total employment by 1.9 percent. Major companies like Google, Facebook and Amazon have recently committed to large blocks of space, which are becoming notably rare as office vacancy levels in the Big Apple continue to tighten. Vacancy will slip 10 basis points to 9.6 percent this year as firms absorb more than 3.8 million square feet. As a result of office vacancies continuing to tighten, builders have started to add to the pipeline, which New York City will see come to fruition this year with the opening of 10 Hudson Yards, Related Cos.’ long-awaited office building project in Manhattan’s West Side. Overall, developers will complete 3.6 million square feet of office space this year, with nearly half at 10 Hudson Yards. Located near Hell’s Kitchen, Chelsea and the Penn Station area, the building is part of the Hudson Yards urban renewal project. Manhattan …

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The Lehigh Valley has experienced significant residential growth over the last 20 years, and retail development is now catching up. High-growth suburban townships have seen significant retail development. Mixed-use projects that include retail are planned or underway in downtown Allentown, Bethlehem and Easton. New pad site and outparcel development has continued to be strong throughout the entire valley. The Hamilton Boulevard/Route 222 corridor in Lower Macungie has been the most active area for new construction. The 560,000-square-foot Hamilton Crossings in Lower Macungie is scheduled to open shortly and will feature Target along with the valley’s first Costco, Nordstrom Rack and Whole Foods. Trexler Business Center, a new project anchored by Movie Tavern, is also in the works. These developments will keep local residents shopping in this area versus traveling to the Macarthur Road corridor, Cedar Crest Boulevard or the Promenade Shops. The 140,000-square-foot retail component at Madison Farms in Bethlehem Township is nearing full completion and the 270,000-square-foot Westgate Mall is in the middle of a major renovation. New projects are in the planning stages along Route 309 in North Whitehall Township, Macarthur Road in Whitehall Township, Airport Road in East Allentown, Eighth Avenue in Bethlehem, Route 33 in Bethlehem …

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Overall the Rhode Island office market exited 2015 with positive momentum, which resulted in a strong first quarter 2016. While much of the activity is intrastate, it is a sign that local businesses have regained confidence in the overall economy outside of Rhode Island. In Providence, office building conversions to residential apartments continues to drive much of the urban office building demand. The largest of the recent residential conversions include the sale of 95 Chestnut Street (57,000 square feet) and 170 Westminster Street (62,000 square feet), which has resulted in contraction of the Class B Providence office market. In addition, The Rhode Island School of Design’s (RISD) recent expansion/purchase of a 12,000-square-foot office condominium at 123 Dyer Street has also spurred downtown demand. The Providence office market has also been affected by corporate consolidation. Citizens Bank, Bank of America, Textron and Blue Cross have all reduced the size of their footprints in Providence over the past 18 months. As a result, the Providence office market experienced a slight uptick in vacancy rates ending 2015, at about 16.5 percent. In the Jewelry District, three construction projects are well underway. The South Street Landing project is a $220 million dollar renovation of …

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The dissolution of The Great Atlantic & Pacific Tea Company, better known as A&P, after 156 years in business was not a complete shock — they had, after all, applied for bankruptcy protection once before already this decade. However, the company and its many legacy brands occupied 296 stores in the United States and Canada at the time of liquidation, which meant a seismic shift was bound to occur in those real estate markets. In Northern and Central New Jersey, the resulting repositioning of A&P’s highly-coveted retail properties is proving to be an unexpected positive for a variety of reasons. For one, A&P occupied space in many of their shopping centers for decades, meaning they were paying less than market rent. Landlords are now able to negotiate new deals at higher rents, resulting in an important market correction. This is also an opportunity to reassess the makeup of centers and figure out not only what categories are missing but also what use groups will best drive traffic and stabilize the centers. Owners are able to repurpose the anchor spaces to accommodate smaller users. For example, on Route 35 in Middletown, the former Pathmark has been subdivided into a TJ Maxx …

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The continued emergence of the e-commerce sector, and continued healthy deal volume among New Jersey’s “traditional” industrial tenants are generating significant momentum for the state’s industrial market. This includes the food, retail and consumer products industries. Strengthening fundamentals have reinforced this theme consistently over the past 24 months, or longer. During 2015, robust demand for modern warehouse space fueled the markets along the New Jersey Turnpike, pushing the state’s warehouse and distribution vacancy to a 15-year low (6.4 percent). This marks a significant five-year drop from a peak of 11.2 percent at the close of 2010. Additionally, the state’s industrial net absorption reached an all-time annual high (12.5 million square feet). Of this, 84 percent occurred within warehouse/distribution product. Big-box demand continues unabated. Currently, we are tracking multiple 1 million-square-foot requirements — the most we’ve seen in many years. Additionally, and importantly, the heightened focus on last-mile delivery is drawing tenants to small and mid-size infill sites. These range from close-in locations providing immediate access to New York City and Philadelphia, to densely populated hubs all along the New Jersey Turnpike. As vacancy rates approach all-time lows and available inventory tightens, an increasing number of deals involve Class B assets. …

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The last five years have seen a lot of shuffling around for Boston’s mainstay industries, with professional service firms moving to the Seaport and tech companies moving to Kendall Square. Although we’ve seen more new residential and commercial development than ever, there will always be space limitations in Boston, which means there will always be more user demand than there is space on the market. The space left behind from tenants on the move will be easily filled by the next wave of tenants — and the cycle continues. Oxford Properties’ latest announcement of its acquisition of 222 Berkeley St. and 500 Boylston St. in the Back Bay is perhaps the best example of the trajectory model in Boston. And similar to the media and finance switcheroo that Manhattan is experiencing (the media mecca is now downtown and FiDi is now midtown), media companies in Boston are now moving into the financial district and finance firms are moving to the Seaport. Boston Globe Media Partners is close to leasing 75,000 square feet of space at 53 State Street. The publishing company will take some of Goodwin Procter’s block that will be vacated once the company relocates to the Seaport District. …

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Metro Philadelphia’s industrial market saw strong demand, developer confidence and declining vacancy rates in 2015. Asking rents averaged $4.43 per square foot for the region, a 4 percent increase from 2014. The overall vacancy has decreased to 7.7 percent as demand kept pace with 5.7 million square feet of completed spec development. The only submarket that is posting greater than 10 percent vacancy is New Castle County, Delaware; however, New Castle’s vacancy rate was trending downward at the end of 2015. We continue to see healthy demand for industrial space in 2016. There could be some impact from global uncertainties, but these will be offset by continued on-shoring of manufacturing requirements and last-mile delivery expansion. Companies seeking between 25,000 to 80,000 square feet have seen limited availability in most submarkets, particularly for purchase. Due to strong demand and reduced availability for modern, net-leased, single-tenant buildings, some investors must consider lesser-quality assets and/or secondary locations. Sale prices and rents have increased. It is not unusual for modern bulk facilities with long-term leases in place to trade in the $90-per-square-foot range. In one recent deal, a private investor paid more than $78 per square foot for the leaseback transaction of an 85-year-old …

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