Northeast Market Reports

Located along the New Jersey Turnpike (I-95) in the geographic center of the Boston-Washington, D.C., corridor, the Exit 8A industrial market is situated 45 miles southwest of Manhattan and 60 miles northeast of Philadelphia. This location enables distributors to reach more than 130 million consumers, one-third of the northern American population, within a one-day drive. With currently 67.48 million square feet, it is the largest submarket in Northern New Jersey. The vacancy is currently dramatically down from the double digits of the recession to 8.4 percent. Asking rents are inching up to the mid-$4 range, NNN, due to the tightening of the market and a shortage of attractive development sites at 8A. National and international tenants are drawn to the submarket’s superior highway access and proximity to the New York/New Jersey ports and Newark Liberty International Airport. The Exit 8A submarket is home to national and international distributors, manufacturers, and logistics firms. Companies with a major presence at Exit 8A include The Home Depot, Pearson Education, ConAgra, Crate & Barrel, FedEx, Costco, William Sonoma, Staples, Iron Mountain, Kellogg’s, Petco, Volkswagen, Ford, LG Electronics, Wakefern, L’Oreal, and Raymour & Flanigan among many others. The 8A industrial market’s desirability is best illustrated …

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Low vacancy persists in the Fairfield and New Haven county apartment sector behind respectable job growth and the accompanying creation of new rental households. Multifamily rentals also continue to derive support from the region’s pricey single-family home market. In New Haven County, rentals remain the most cost-effective housing option for many households and younger residents. An acutely low level of single-family home affordability also exists in the most sought-after neighborhoods in Fairfield County, driving many residents to apartments for extended tenures. With high single-­family prices posing a barrier to home­ownership for many households and creating a large pool of renters, multifamily developers are ramping up production, especially in Fairfield County. Thus far, new construction has been rather well received. Vacancy in recently built properties in Stamford/Norwalk was up slightly to the mid-3 percent range this year as complexes coming online stabilized, despite average rents in excess of $2,500 per month. Tight vacancy also persists in lower-priced 1990s-era rentals in the submarket. By the end of 2013, employers in the market are projected to create 11,500 jobs, marking a 1.5 percent expansion of payrolls. Gains in education and health services, and professional and business services primarily accounted for an increase of …

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The best word to describe the current retail real estate market in Connecticut is “stabilized.” The majority of the big box and junior anchor vacancies resulting from downsizing and bankruptcies have been absorbed. Although rental rates are still not at pre-recession levels, new construction — which has been absent over the last few years — is now being seen with multiple projects throughout the state. In Brookfield, Samuels & Associates recently completed a redevelopment of an existing 40-year-old shopping center on Federal Road by demolishing the majority of the existing shopping center adjacent to a freestanding Kohl’s and constructing a BJ’s Wholesale Club along with several restaurant pads. The project will also debut the first Chick-fil-A in Connecticut. Walmart Neighborhood Market has opened its first two Connecticut locations. The first opened at Edens redevelopment of the Bishops Corner West shopping center in West Hartford followed by the opening of a freestanding store in a former Shaw’s Supermarket on Route 6 in Bristol. Walmart has also opened a new Walmart Supercenter on Route 5 in East Windsor that is a relocation of an older Walmart on the opposite side of Route 5. Also, Walmart will soon open a new freestanding supercenter …

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With nearly 24,500 units planned, under construction or recently completed, Northern New Jersey’s impressive multifamily development pipeline continues as one of the region’s hottest discussion topics. Specifically, inquiring minds want to know how this growth in inventory will impact market fundamentals moving forward. The bulk of the development pipeline and activity (59 percent) is taking place along the Hudson River Gold Coast, from Jersey City to Edgewater. Just north of Edgewater, Fort Lee is seeing a surge of new construction. Three projects are underway or at the cusp of breaking ground there; over the next two years, they will add 1,000 units within a three-block radius of the entrance of the George Washington Bridge. This will have a transformative effect on the neighborhood. This raises some questions. At what pace will the new product be absorbed? What will happen to short- and longer-­term rent growth? Northern New Jersey always has maintained high, unmet demand for newly constructed communities (especially along the Gold Coast), evidenced by high occupancy levels and rent growth for Class A product that outperforms the regional and national market averages. Currently, asking rent for Class A communities is at an all-time high of $2,043 per month. The …

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A few things happened recently that may have long-term impacts on the Northern New Jersey office market: • Regional employment continues to improve. • Facebook is more than doubling its occupancy in Manhattan. • Merck made it official and is listing its 1-million-square-foot campus for sale. • Governor Chris Christie signed into law the Economic Opportunity Act of 2013. Regional employment continues to improve. Northern New Jersey falls within an MSA that includes New York City, Long Island and a portion of Pennsylvania. The unemployment rate for this MSA stood at 8 percent in August this year compared with 9.5 percent in July 2012, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Using the theory that a rising tide floats all boats, the more people at work in the region, the better our economy performs. And everyone who works in real estate knows that real estate absorption is connected to one thing and one thing only: jobs. Facebook recently inked an office lease at 770 Broadway in Manhattan for one floor of 85,000 square feet and a portion of a second floor, which more than doubles the approximately 40,000 square feet the social networking company currently occupies in New …

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South Jersey has room to grow, with several proposed ground-up centers taking center stage in the seven-­county region as developers capitalize on residential growth tied to the market’s relative affordability. Meanwhile, “redevelopment” is the operative word for the 14 counties in the state’s more densely populated north and central regions, where industrial sites are being converted into mixed-use centers. Fueled by big-box absorption, the vacancy rate for open-air and freestanding retail in the northern counties inched down to 8.1 percent in mid-2013 from 8.2 percent a year ago. Central Jersey’s vacancies rose to 9.8 percent from 9.1 percent a year earlier, driven by small-shop closures. In the south, the average is 9 percent. Rents in the north crept up 0.1 percent in the first three quarters of 2013, with a median of $20 to $26 per square foot in top markets; central counties crept up 0.3 percent to a median of $15.50 to $16. South Jersey rents increased just 0.1 percent in the first two quarters of 2013, with a median of $13. For regional malls, one continuing trend is the move by owners to take interior spaces and turn them outward for more of a lifestyle feel. This began …

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If only the economy would cooperate, there are signs of improvement in the downtown and suburban Hartford office market. Modest expansion and non-traditional absorption of office buildings is beginning to create shortages of large blocks of office space in certain areas. Places like West Hartford Center, Glastonbury’s Somerset Square area, Corporate Ridge in Rocky Hill, downtown Middletown and downtown Hartford have all seen their best Class A buildings’ occupancy levels grow. Vacancy is being concentrated in buildings that suffer from either age-related challenges, capital issues or buildings that are in an ownership transition. Unfortunately, although the governor and legislature have taken some positive steps to create economic activity, the state is still mired in a high-tax, high-cost model that is eroding or tempering growth from many of our largest employers and keeping new businesses from entering the market. In spite of that self-inflicted condition, here are the trends that are currently shaping the current office market in Hartford County: Non-traditional absorption: real estate demand for educational, multi-family residential, medical and government facilities is booming compared to corporate office needs. Offices buildings are being taken out of inventory for conversions to schools, apartments, medical offices and state offices. While some of …

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The retail industry has piggybacked onto the high tech world by recognizing the impact that the high tech industry is having on the demographics and income levels of the entire Upstate New York region. Recent announcements of the return of Lord & Taylor to Crossgates Mall in Albany, and the positioning of ­UNIQLO at the Palisades Mall in Nyack, N.Y., are proving that the impact of the high-tech industry is now being felt throughout the entire upstate region. The addition of both of these retailers to the mix in the Tech Valley corridor of Upstate New York (from Nyack to Saratoga Springs, N.Y.) bodes well for the region, and shows the world that the growth rate of young, tech-savvy professionals will become one of the strong foundations for retailers well into the future. The recent addition of these two dynamic retailers into the Hudson Valley/Tech Valley regions is evidence of their understanding of the impact of the high technology industries located here. The higher paying, clean-tech employment base, focused on a younger work force, points directly to these two retailers’ “sweet spot.” UNIQLO’s format is very fashion forward with a very high level of quality at their specific price point. …

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Performance prospects for the Philadelphia apartment sector remain positive. At mid-year, vacancy was in the low five percent range despite only modest job growth in the first two quarters. Since then, a steady flow of residents moving into apartments has enabled owners to reduce or maintain vacancy and improve asset values. By the end of the year, rental property completions will have risen after several years of limited construction. The current upswing in development will minimally affect market-wide vacancy and rents, and the impact of the new units will be contained to local areas. In Center City, for example, minor vacancy swings and more frequent concession use will occur as new projects are leased up. Generally, strong conditions in the market are encouraging developers and building will progress at a steady pace in the next two years. Nonetheless, the new construction cycle hardly looks forbidding, as the units permitted over the past year would expand multifamily stock only 1.1 percent if all those projects were built. Year to date, 879 new rental units have been placed in service in Philadelphia and it looks like developers will complete 2,600 apartments in 2013, which is up 1,238 units over last year, but …

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While much of the suburbs, as well as pockets in Boston and Cambridge, continue to have a high inventory of office space, rents keep rising as vacancy is dropping in the area’s hottest submarkets — Boston’s Back Bay and East and Mid-Cambridge. Class A vacancy in the Back Bay now averages 6 percent while it’s even lower for Class A space in Mid-Cambridge and East Cambridge (1 percent in Kendall Square and 1.5 percent in Central Square). Average rents for Class A office space in the Back Bay are over $57 per square foot and almost $78 per square foot for high-rise space. In Cambridge, average Class A office and lab space rents are in the high $50s. Other Boston Trends • With demand increasing in the Seaport and even the low-rise tower space, many tenants from Cambridge are looking in other submarkets. In fact, Downtown Crossing has become the new Seaport, and North Station is seeing an uptick of activity as well. Average Class A rents in the Seaport are up to $52 per square foot, with much better value available in Downtown Crossing and North Station, where rents are in the mid-$30 range per square foot. • Demand …

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