Northeast Market Reports

In the words of Benjamin Franklin, New Jersey’s multifamily housing investment market is “a barrel tapped at both ends,” with fluid trading activity extending from the Hudson River’s Gold Coast to the shores of the Delaware River. Statewide, multifamily properties continue their reign as one of the healthiest investments. Low vacancy rates, convenience to mass transit and a high concentration of properties, particularly in Central and Northern New Jersey, continue to feed the appetite of investors who are hungry for virtually any building class. Thanks to the state’s choice location along the Boston/New York City/Philadelphia/Washington, D.C., corridor, New Jersey has historically been, and continues to be, one of the strongest and most desirable markets for multifamily investments. From urban walk-up buildings to suburban garden-style apartment complexes, the Garden State boasts some of the best multifamily housing stock in the nation. This is further bolstered by a strong average occupancy rate of more than 95 percent and durable rent growth. Both of these conditions are fueled by the enduring effects of the residential housing crisis as well as people “priced out” of cities like Philadelphia and Manhattan, who are seeking a more affordable living option. These migratory tenants are flocking to …

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The rising demand for bulk warehouse space among e-commerce users is driving the New Jersey industrial market. After climbing to 14.1 percent during the third quarter of 2010, the vacancy rate for warehouse space for the 10-county region in Northern and Central New Jersey has declined to 12.5 percent during the first quarter of 2013. More than 7 million square feet of inventory has been absorbed since the middle of 2011. Increased demand resulted in rising average asking rents during 2012, the first year of steady increases since 2007. Nearly 90 percent of the net absorption occurred in Central New Jersey, more specifically along the New Jersey Turnpike from exits 7A to 8A, where vacancy rates ascended to as high as 22.5 percent during the third quarter of 2009 and currently stand at 14.4 percent. Adding to the momentum of activity in Central New Jersey is Amazon’s commitment to open two large fulfillment centers here, demonstrating the significant impact that e-commerce is having on the state’s commercial real estate market. The first of these two warehouses, which is slated to open in 2014 in Robbinsville (Mercer County), will generate an estimated 700 jobs and more than $22 million in tax …

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What comes to mind when you say the name “Hoboken” today? A thriving downtown area filled with young, hip residents, high-class retail and 24/7 traffic that rivals areas of downtown Brooklyn. However, that wasn’t the case 10 years ago. National and regional tenants seeking space would first — and in most cases only — look to the suburban centers that were the heart of New Jersey life. Downtown retail areas were seen as lunch-driven areas boasting only five-day foot traffic and not enough parking. Now mainstays like Starbucks, Chipotle and Panera Bread have all made a home for themselves in Hoboken. What has brought about this change ­ — which has seen Hoboken thrive but also brought about a new era of downtown retail that can be seen in the emerging neighborhoods of Newark and Jersey City? A prime factor in these areas’ rise to prominence has been the massive swell of development, not only in office towers but in entertainment centers and residential hubs. The opening of the Prudential Center in Newark four years ago revitalized the area with more than 200 events each year, including home games for the New Jersey Devils. The project was truly the first …

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As we come off the high of the holiday season and take a look at how New York retail fared throughout the year, we can expel a deep sigh of relief knowing that the Big Apple continued to recover faster than the national average and has a bright outlook for 2013. While New York City’s retail recovery has been slow and steady, the year closed on a positive note with total retail vacancy rates hovering around two percent. New York City continues to be a one of the most vibrant and growing retail markets in the world as the local economy has seen steady gains in private sector hiring that outweigh cuts in government employment. While Hurricane Sandy dented the recovery, the city rebounded almost immediately with Black Friday weekend sales exceeding expectations. New York’s resiliency and continued low unemployment bodes well for the Big Apple’s continued success. Big Apple Big Deals The New York retail market saw some notable large deals in 2012 including H&M’s new 57,000-square-foot lease and Cartier’s 50,000-square-foot renewal on Fifth Avenue. This coupled with the unprecedented 200,000 square feet available on Fifth Avenue solidifies the opportunity for a successful 2013. While the market has seen …

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Blessed by a favorable location and high quality of life standards, the Danbury, Conn., retail market has grown in the recent 18 months and should continue to expand in 2013. Key among growth indicators are: * Whole Foods is opening its first store in the Danbury market in 2013. * Panera Bread and Petco recently opened second stores in this market. * Toll Brothers is under way with a new 1,200-home community in anticipation of regional population growth and changing demographics. * Danbury has the lowest unemployment rate in the state (7.1 percent seasonally unadjusted as of January 2013, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics). Location and Demographics Danbury is located in northern Fairfield County on the border of New York State and is approximately 50 miles north of New York City. (The Metro train to NYC takes just over an hour.) The population is approximately 80,000. Danbury serves Fairfield and Litchfield County in Connecticut as well as Westchester, Putnam and Dutchess counties in New York. Stamford, Conn.; White Plains, N.Y.; and Hartford, Conn., are each about an hour away. The relatively short commutes to these larger urban hubs entice real estate occupiers for office space and retail tenants …

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Multifamily markets around the country are thriving and Connecticut is no exception, particularly with regard to Class B and Class C properties. The regional mortgage markets have opened up dramatically, approving deals that would have been snubbed a year ago as the market rebounded from the economic downturn. Today, the multifamily sector is alive and well in all classes and markets throughout Connecticut. When the rebound first began roughly 18 months ago, premium core properties were getting all the attention because of discretionary equity and debt. Lending agencies at the time showed a strong preference for garden-variety Class A suburban and high-rise assets. Terms like “value-add” were barely in their vocabulary then, but now closings labeled as such occur all the time. Outside of the New Haven, Fairfield and Stamford core markets, however, plenty of REO and distressed real estate is still working its way through the pipeline, from markets like urban Hartford to outlying suburban areas. Why the delay? For a long time, investors felt repercussions from the market crash, so we had a case of “a falling tide sinking all boats.” Now, while there’s still no urgency to invest in bank-owned real estate, these assets are slowly but …

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We We ended 2012 with a “wait-and-see” New York City office market, a predicament common to other cities and commercial real estate sectors across the U.S. With elections, the fiscal cliff and 2012 behind us, we expect 2013 to be a bit of a transition year with moderate growth, but it will still be interesting to observe and be a part of one of the world’s most dynamic markets as Midtown, Midtown South and Downtown evolve and historic developments such as the World Trade Center continue to take shape. In terms of tenant activity, Midtown South is still the biggest story. Midtown South vacancy closed the year at 7.9 percent, with average asking rents of $49.69 per square foot, while the submarket’s Class A space was 5.2 percent vacant with average asking rates of $62.57 per square foot. With Google and its $2 billion New York City headquarters at 111 Eighth Ave., Midtown South’s Silicon Alley has emerged as the East Coast hot spot for tech and social media tenants that are drawn to the city’s media and financial agglomerations and talent pool. Though Midtown and Midtown South offer a different vibe and, generally, different types of office inventory, owners …

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Blessed by location and good quality of life standards, the Danbury, Conn., retail market has grown in the recent 18 months and should continue to expand in 2013. Key among growth indicators are: • Whole Foods is opening its first store in the Danbury market in 2013. • Panera Bread and Petco recently opened second stores in this market. • Toll Brothers is under way with a new 1,200-home community in anticipation of regional population growth and changing demographics. • Danbury has the lowest unemployment rate in the state (around 6.5 percent). Location and Demographics Danbury is located in northern Fairfield County on the border of New York State and is approximately 50 miles north of New York City. (The Metro train to NYC takes just over an hour.) The population is approximately 80,000. Danbury serves Fairfield and Litchfield County in Connecticut as well as Westchester, Putnam and Dutchess counties in New York. Stamford, Conn.; White Plains, N.Y.; and Hartford, Conn., are each about an hour away. The relatively short commutes to these larger urban hubs entice real estate occupiers for office space and retail tenants with lower rental costs — on average, 20 to 25 percent less for comparable …

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A tight retail market, rising rents, and record low interest rates led to a jump in New York City multifamily investment sales in 2012. Multifamily building sales in New York City rose to $7.3 billion in 2012, a 45 percent increase compared to 2011, according to Ariel Property Advisors’ Multifamily 2012 Year in Review: New York City. There were 639 multifamily transactions comprised of 965 buildings in 2012, a year-over-year increase of 36 percent and 42 percent, respectively. The fourth quarter was particularly robust as investors rushed to close deals before tax increases took effect. In 2012, we also saw prices for multifamily buildings in prime New York City locations return to pre-financial crisis levels. In Manhattan, cap rates averaged below 4.75 percent and value-added assets traded at below 4 percent. Manhattan multifamily buildings operating at market rental rates even saw prices climb above $1,000 per square foot. One example of this was 105 West 29th Street, where a sale closed in June for $280 million, or $1,056 per square foot. This same institutional investor paid $475 million, or $498 per square foot, in January 2010 for a portfolio comprised of similar core assets at 415 East 53rd Street, 777 …

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The vacancy rate for the 19.7 million-square-foot Cambridge office and lab market decreased from 11.5 percent to 10.3 percent during the third quarter, with more than 150,000 square feet of positive absorption. Year-to-date absorption totals 386,000 square feet, with all of the positive absorption occurring in the lab market. The lab market continues to be the driving engine of the Cambridge market and with four consecutive quarters of positive absorption, it shows no sign of slowing down. The two largest leases of the quarter were signed by Merrimack Pharmaceuticals (110,000 square feet), a homegrown Cambridge company, and Boston Biomedical Inc. (63,000 square feet), which will open an oncology R&D facility in Cambridge. Conditions in the Cambridge office market generally favor landlords despite three straight quarters of modestly negative net absorption. The office vacancy rate stands at 10.9 percent, but with some sizeable commitments expected to transact in the fourth quarter and a number of active tenants touring the market, conditions are tight, particularly in the East Cambridge submarket. Office Market The 10.3 million-square-foot Cambridge office market has been statistically flat for much of 2012, barely moving from 10 percent at 2011 year end to 10.9 percent at the end of …

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