By Taylor Williams Demand for industrial space continues to surge throughout New Jersey and eastern Pennsylvania, prompting developers to undertake more projects on a speculative basis and avail themselves to the classic mantra of “If you build it, they will come.” E-commerce users, spanning every industry from building materials to electronics to food, continue to spearhead the demand side of the equation. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, in 2020, a year in which a global health crisis spurred furious increases in online shopping, e-commerce sales accounted for 14.4 percent of all retail sales, up from 7.3 percent in 2015. That figure is expected to grow to nearly 20 percent by 2024. Lenders are eager to finance speculative industrial projects, and developers are scouring the Mid-Atlantic for viable sites as spec projects increasingly account for bigger portions of their portfolios. “Pre-COVID, and even dating back several years, you might see 20 percent of the Mid-Atlantic industrial projects being done as build-to-suits,” says Rob Borny, senior vice president of capital deployment and head of the East Region for Nevada-based Dermody Properties. “It’s now moving toward being significantly less [build-to-suit activity] due to robust tenant demand, as well as the shorter lead …
Northeast Market Reports
By Alex Kachris, research manager — Northeast industrial region, JLL Industrial commercial real estate had its second-best year on record in 2020, with U.S. transaction volume nearing $96 billion. As competition among investors for industrial product remains strong in 2021, JLL Capital Markets Research isolated one sub-class that is gaining investor interest: multi-use logistics. The multi-use logistics profile includes older, multi-tenant assets ranging from 20,000 to 100,000 square feet that have solid footprints within infill urban logistics markets. These assets, which often have diversified, local tenant bases, usually house a mix of distribution, flex showroom, industrial showroom, R&D, warehouse and/or manufacturing space. Multi-use logistics assets boast compelling rent growth profiles and strong long-term outlooks. With new, yield-focused investors jumping into the industrial space, multi-use logistics product is desirable as an alternative to the bulk industrial market, which is getting tighter. Given that multi-use logistics facilities are generally older properties, population centers have exploded around these assets, making not only almost impossible to replace but highly sought-after as last-mile logistics locations close to end users. Compounded by industry fundamentals that are driven by macroeconomic factors, including reshoring and acceleration of e-commerce adoption, the increased demand for these smaller, multi-tenant industrial assets …
By Mark Fogel, president and CEO, ACRES Capital As the state’s second-most populous metro, the Pittsburgh MSA is the anchor of western Pennsylvania. Over the last 20 years, Pittsburgh has pivoted and evolved into a hub for the healthcare, education and technology industries, thus attracting an influx of young, high-earning millennials. Over the last 10 years, Pittsburgh has undergone an economic resurgence. Firms such as Google and Uber have opened regional headquarters in the city, lured by the strong base of talent graduating from Carnegie Mellon University’s (CMU) computer science and robotics programs. In fact, Pittsburgh has been the epicenter for autonomous vehicles (AVs) since the mid-1980s, when CMU’s Robotics Department developed the world’s first self-driving car. AV research, development and testing are expected to be catalysts of growth for the city in the coming years. In addition, the cutting-edge research at the University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine and the associated University of Pittsburgh Medical Center, which operates eight hospitals within the MSA and plans to build three more over the next several years, is attracting medical professionals from around the world. These factors, combined with a low cost of living and proximity to high-end amenities, have helped Pittsburgh …
By Justin Brown, director of research, Cushman & Wakefield | Grant Street Associates Inc. While the last year has been extremely challenging, one bright spot within Pittsburgh’s commercial real estate markets has been the industrial sector, the resiliency of which cannot be overstated. Consistent increases in asking rents, flat vacancy rates and positive levels of absorption have been the norms for the past few quarters. Like many metros, the Pittsburgh industrial market saw very strong absorption in the fourth quarter of last year — about 391,000 square feet, to be exact. Net absorption slid to approximately 92,000 square feet in the first quarter of this year, but there rem ains ample reason to believe that leasing activity will stay steady, if not improve, in the coming months. Much of the new leasing activity has been concentrated within the airport corridor. This region features both considerable land for new development and exceptional access to key pieces of infrastructure, making it popular with tenants and landlords alike. Currently, there is approximately 1.8 million square feet of industrial space under construction throughout the metro, with more than half of those projects (about 1 million square feet) concentrated in the airport corridor. The average …
By Ken Uranowitz, president, Gebroe-Hammer Associates When it comes to investment in multifamily properties, as in life, change is constant. Between evolving tenant demographics and political climates to recessionary economies and a once-in-a-century pandemic, multifamily assets are continuing to prove their centuries-old knack for pivoting in times of change. Unlike any other commercial asset class, multifamily possesses an unrivaled level of agility rooted in its most-important attribute: People always need a safe place to call home. In good times and turbulent periods, apartment living offers a tremendous level of flexibility based on point-in-time needs. While past recessionary times may have had red-flag indicators of things to come, nothing prepared us for the rippling effects of COVID-19. This virus tested us in ways never seen before. Collectively, we found ourselves in uncharted waters due to the sudden and abrupt measures imposed to slow the spread of COVID-19. While these challenges are being addressed, with the passage of time, health and wellbeing remain paramount. In this regard, multifamily properties have played an integral role in providing tenants and communities with the most basic needs of shelter, a place to live and a place from which to telecommute for work or education. A …
By David Simon, SIOR, COO, NAI DiLeo-Bram Having recently surpassed the one-year mark since COVID-19 reached the United States, we can now better assess the pandemic’s impact on our local office market. Reviewing a year of data and market activity helps paint a more detailed picture of where things stand currently and may be headed. The overall direct vacancy rate for the combined counties of Essex, Middlesex, Morris, Somerset and Union New Jersey has risen 120 basis points since the start of the pandemic to 12.7 percent. Much of the space becoming vacant or available is higher-quality product; in fact the Class A direct vacancy rate has risen 180 basis points during the pandemic and is currently 17 percent. As a result, tenants looking in this segment of the market have a broad selection of high-quality office product. Sublet space has followed a similar trend to that of direct space, marking a 70 basis point increase since the start of the pandemic. More than 1.1 million square feet of Class A sublease product has become available during this period. Notwithstanding the statistics above, our firm recently completed over 28,000 square feet of office leases in Middlesex County, at 100 Metroplex …
By Danielle Brunelli, president, R.J. Brunelli & Co. On both the landlord and tenant sides, 2020 was a tough year for the Northern New Jersey retail market. But as some of the industry’s most optimistic voices predicted, the hard times are passing, and actually passing fairly quickly. In 2020, we saw leasing activity decline by almost 30 percent year over year. This languishing activity resulted in a 3.1 percent drop in the market rent on a per-square-foot basis. Over the past couple years, there were several bankruptcies in the works that were accelerated by the COVID-19 pandemic. These bankruptcies resulted in many new vacancies in the region, including former stores of Modells, Justice, Pier 1 Imports, Tuesday Morning, Steinmart and others. However, light has appeared at the end of the tunnel, and we are seeing renewed leasing activity as we close the first quarter of 2021. Users including Planet Fitness, Dollar Tree, Harbor Freight, Raymour and Flanigan, salon suites concepts, Five Below and others are leasing up vacant spaces quickly. Tenant Expansions A good example of an essential service business that has benefited from an increase in sales throughout the pandemic and aggressively expanded in the region in 2020 is …
By Lenny Tartamella, COO of Larken Associates Since the moment the first subdivision was built, the debate defining the residential and multifamily development process has been centered around the core question of, “Where do people want to live?” As we look to answer this question in 2021, the answer is not as clear as it seemed only several years ago. It is obvious that the living preferences of millennials — those born between 1981 and 1996 who at 70 million now represent the largest segment of the U.S. adult population — and the generation after them, Gen Z, will be a key piece of the answer. Similarly, and not to be forgotten when we are answering this question, the preferences of seniors and those nearing retirement age will also factor heavily into how our multifamily communities continue to evolve. While the differences between those two groups already make answering the core question behind multifamily development difficult, the COVID-19 pandemic and its disruption to how we live, work and play have only added further complexity to the answer. However, as we move towards a post-pandemic future of a live-work-play lifestyle, a new word is entering our lexicon that precisely defines where this …
By Taylor Williams It shouldn’t come as a surprise that most commercial real estate professionals expect a year that follows a global pandemic to be an improvement from the previous one. But the anticipation of a drastically strong rebound across an entire region seems a bit unusual, especially given that mass vaccination and herd immunity are still months away, ensuring that much of 2021 will to some degree be marked by similar COVID-19 headwinds to property types like office, retail and hospitality. Yet in the true spirit of the commercial real estate industry, optimism is prevailing, at least according to the results of Northeast Real Estate Business’ annual forecast survey of brokers, developers/owners/managers, as well as lenders and financial intermediaries. The survey encompassed approximately 150 professionals throughout the region across these three groups. Based on majority responses, brokers expect leasing activity to pick back up to varying degrees across all asset classes. Owners see major opportunity to grow their portfolios, particularly with regard to distressed assets whose pricing levels have come down due to occupancy and cash flow concerns. Piggybacking on the elevated opportunity for more investment volume are greater opportunities for lenders to finance new developments and acquisitions — …
By Brian Pinch, managing director, Newmark On a national level, the industrial market continues to perform well amidst the coronavirus-induced market correction that has impacted other asset classes. Industrial fundamentals ended 2020 on solid footing, with outsized demand, rising rents and a healthy supply pipeline. Despite the impacts of COVID-19, key logistics hubs like Los Angeles and the Inland Empire are doing well, as are smaller metros like Boston. The continued shift towards e-commerce and online shopping, as well as a greater emphasis on strong distribution networks and supply chains, are driving activity within tertiary markets as well. Combined with sustained cap rate compression, such positive fundamentals have led to increased investor interest in the industrial asset class. Capital that was previously allocated for other property types is now flowing into the industrial market, and low interest rates are giving buyers increased purchasing power. As a result, pricing for industrial product continues to climb across many metros, including greater Boston. In fact, greater Boston’s industrial market maintains one of the most dynamic investment landscapes in the country, as historically tight vacancies and rapidly rising rents attract record levels of capital. Though the metro-wide vacancy rate is below 6 percent — …