Despite the headwinds facing retail real estate, including the continued rise of ecommerce, the Orange County retail market remains resilient. Statistics are favorable. Vacancy is low at 3.7 percent and average market rent is $32.29 per square foot, up 1.15 percent from last year. Cap rates remain nearly 200 basis points below the national average, signaling buyer sentiment that OC retail is a relatively safe haven. Ground-up development is slow and selective, shoring up demand and keeping rates up for the foreseeable future. The interesting thing is that the market trends are pervasive. Let’s identify a few. Drive-thru restaurants are on fire. Tenants like Chick Fil-A, Raising Cane’s, Starbucks, In-N-Out, Panera and others are performing much higher in SoCal as compared to the rest of the country. Good sites are commanding competition, driving ground rents and drive-thru build-to-suit rents higher each of the past three years. Fitness, grocery, discount and entertainment uses are the most active players in the box category. It’s amazing to think the 1.5 million square feet of big boxes that were dumped on the market in 2017 and 2018 are now mostly accounted for thanks to these new users. EOS Fitness, Planet Fitness, ALDI, Burlington, At …
Elevated consumer spending tied to a strong job market in the greater Houston area is driving retail investment and tenant demand in suburban and urban submarkets alike. As a result, it’s one of the nation’s top MSAs for retail development, with more than 3 million-plus square feet under construction market-wide. From an investment perspective, single-tenant and ground-leased assets remain favorable with investors. E-commerce-resistant tenants like fitness, restaurants, automotive service centers, car washes/detailing and dialysis facilities command the most attention with cap rates between the mid-5 to mid-6 percent range. Cap rates tend to be 25 to 50 basis points lower for ground leases because there is no landlord responsibility. Credit, guarantee, location, lease term and landlord responsibility are the biggest factors affecting value. Following Grand Parkway In greater Houston, the majority of retail development recently has been in high-growth submarkets along the 180-mile Grand Parkway/TX 99, which loops through seven counties. National brands like Target, Ross Dress for Less, T.J. Maxx, Burlington, Ulta Beauty and Five Below are continually scouting sites in high-density suburban markets along the Grand Parkway. The exponential growth in the entertainment, fitness, dining and medical/healthcare sectors is an equally strong catalyst for retail and mixed-use development …
Even in the context of a sustained stretch of national economic growth and a Midwest region where there are plenty of high-performing markets, Minneapolis-St. Paul stands out. The commercial real estate market in and around the Twin Cities is thriving, in large part due to some impressive structural fundamentals. Metrics and measurables The state of Minnesota — especially the Minneapolis-St. Paul metro area — has a very diverse base of employment, with a long list of significant Fortune 500 companies, including familiar and even iconic names like Target, Best Buy, 3M, U.S. Bancorp, General Mills, Medtronic, C.H. Robinson and United Health Care. United Health Care alone generated $226 billion in revenue in 2018. The economic and market diversity of the Twin Cities stands in contrast to some other Midwest markets, even some that are experiencing significant growth. The market has also experienced an exciting and ongoing uptick in workforce numbers and population growth, elevating Minneapolis-St. Paul far ahead of U.S. averages for both numbers — surpassing cities like Seattle, Atlanta and Washington, D.C. Forbes lists the state of Minnesota as among the nation’s top 10 “Best States for Business.” With 65 percent of the state’s population living in the Minneapolis-St. …
With older, pure-play retail space being repurposed into mixed-use developments and e-commerce-resistant users growing their regional footprints, the Boston retail market is evolving in lockstep with that of the United States. At the same time, new, trendy retailers and restaurant concepts are vying to get their feet in Boston’s door, drawn to the market’s healthy fundamentals and above-average levels of disposable household incomes. The net result of all this activity is a revitalized retail landscape that is defined by rapid absorption and rent growth within quality existing spaces, the repurposing of older spaces into different uses and the rise of mixed-use developments as backdrops for new supply additions. According to World Population Review, Boston, a city spanning some 100 square miles, is the fourth-most densely populated metro area in the country. Fueled by a vibrant education scene that includes more than 20 colleges and universities, as well as the addition of 25,000 new jobs in 2019, the population is growing. These geographic and demographic fundamentals have all but ensured that demand for retail space in Boston is perpetually strong, even during economic downtimes. According Marcus & Millichap, the city proper’s retail vacancy rate currently sits at 3.3 percent, though it …
Louisville continues high occupancy levels throughout the metropolitan area in all apartment types as the market continues to enjoy record-level rent growth and new development. This is enhanced by low unemployment and rising wages throughout the Louisville metropolitan area. The diverse local economy from worldwide distribution at UPS and high-tech manufacturing at Ford Motor Co. and General Electric Appliance Park, as well as innovation in the medical industry, continue to provide high-paying jobs and a highly desirable employment base that can drive occupancy and rents for apartment owners in the Louisville metropolitan area. Integra Realty Resources reports an overall occupancy level of 96 percent for the Louisville metropolitan area, which has seen mid- to high-single-digit rent growth on an annual basis over the last three years. This high occupancy level and rental growth rate have attracted a number of new developments around the metropolitan marketplace. In 2018, there were 2,173 units completed and an additional 898 have been delivered in 2019 as of this writing. Most of the larger scale developments have been completed by regional developers such as Nashville-based Bristol Development and Indianapolis-based Cityscape Residential. Local development companies, such as Denton Floyd, LDG Development, Hagan Development and NTS Development, …
As we enter the fourth quarter, Houston’s office market remains sluggish due primarily to uncertainty in the energy industry. With the price of West Texas Intermediate crude fluctuating between $45 and $60 per barrel, the market has seen minimal oil company expansions. With the pricing outlook remaining on a bleak to flat trajectory, little growth in office occupancy is expected in the next 18 to 24 months. The cycle favors tenants, now and for the foreseeable future. Should energy pricing return to higher levels, there will undoubtedly be higher occupancy through positive absorption, making the next six months an ideal time to lock in rental rates and construction/build-out costs for the next five to seven years. Through the third quarter of 2019, Houston has seen 217,000 square feet of overall net absorption, including sublease space returning to the direct market. The bright spots are new Class A downtown properties like Bank of America Tower, 609 Main and Texas Tower, whose current and future tenants have demonstrated their willingness to pay the higher base rates and operating expenses associated with new development. Companies are using office space more efficiently due to technological advances and transformations in mobility and are demanding more …
In 2018, Louisville saw a record year with more than 10 million square feet of net absorption in its industrial sector. This is a huge absorption number for any of the Midwest markets and represents more than three times Louisville’s previous record. Louisville was second only behind Chicago out of the Midwest markets tracked by CBRE. The absorption follows a record year for speculative construction as well, as close to 4 million square feet was delivered in 2018. User demand came from all sectors, including automotive, e-commerce, third-party logistics firms (3PLs), manufacturing and medical. Automotive and manufacturing were particularly strong performers. The more notable automotive and manufacturing transactions in 2018 were three Ford Motor Co. leases totaling more than 1 million square feet, as well as New Flyer’s 315,000-square-foot, $30 million transit bus and motorcoach parts fabrication facility in Bullitt County. Additionally, Denso leased 311,000 square feet in Southern Indiana and KCC opened another 224,000-square-foot plant to expand production capacity of its HVAC equipment line. Distribution remains strong in Louisville due to its central location and available workforce. According to a recent report from CBRE’s Labor Analytics Group, Louisville has the highest distribution labor score among the Midwest markets. As …
Orange County’s multifamily market fundamentals remain some of the strongest in the country as local real estate investors brace for new state-wide rent control policies beginning Jan. 1, 2020. There will undoubtedly be an education process for landlords regarding this new law and how it may impact the valuation of multifamily in the future, but the long-term stability of the overall apartment market looks bright. Orange County boasts historically low unemployment and low apartment vacancy, but the region continues to have a shortfall in the development of workforce housing. Orange County is expected to deliver about 2,900 new Class A units to the market in 2019, about 500 units more than last year. With an extended economic expansion throughout Southern California, Orange County has benefitted greatly with large segments of its population fully employed and seeking places to live. The county has one of the nation’s highest median home prices at more than $833,000, making homeownership unattainable for many of its residents. This workforce housing shortfall will continue to put further pressure on the demand in Orange County as its apartment average vacancy rate is anticipated to drop 40 basis points to a very low 3.4 percent in 2019. This …
Northern Nevada’s industrial market remains strong with more than 3.2 million square feet of new speculative space under construction and slated for delivery in 2020. These new projects will push the market well above the 90-million-square-footmark. The vacancy rate is a low 5.56 percent and continues to trend slightly upward. There have been some significant lease transactions in the market. Prologis is building a 598,901-square-foot facility for Makita Tools; Scannell just finished a 200,200-square-foot built-to-suit facility for OnTrac; and 1A Auto recently leased 149,196 square feet at 9175 Moya Blvd. All of these transactions occurred in the North Valleys submarket. The new 270,975-square-foot Longley Commerce Center by Panattoni leased up a majority of its space in the third quarter. This project is a mix of flex and bulk spaces, and is the last viable industrial development in the South Meadows submarket. Polaris completed its 514,555-square-foot BTS in Fernley in the second quarter, while a confidential user just leased 266,000 square feet in the I-80 East submarket. There have also been some significant portfolio sales to institutional buyers. The 1.4-million-square-foot Lear Industrial Center is slated to trade hands in the fourth quarter. Northwestern Mutual sold its 1,776,805-square-foot portfolio to Link Industrial …
All the recent talk in the Houston industrial market has focused on the amount of distribution space that is under construction or proposed for development. As a result, many industrial real estate professionals are worried about certain submarkets becoming overbuilt. This is a reasonable thought, given that Houston has more distribution space under construction than ever before — roughly 18 million square feet is under construction citywide, compared to the previous high in 2015 of 15 million square feet. However, there is also an exceptionally high level of demand in the market that could easily allow more than half of that space to be quickly absorbed once delivered. What is most promising about Houston’s industrial market — and what has also partially defined the evolution of this space — is the sheer volume of larger requirements. There are currently more than a dozen deals across the city involving users that are seeking anywhere from 400,000 to 1.5 million square feet. This certainly bodes well for Houston’s industrial distribution market, which continues to attract large-scale developers and tenants due to the growing local and regional population. Access to the Port of Houston — which is great for retailers looking for another …