America’s $3.5 trillion retail sector is going through tough times. E-commerce has cut into the conventional brick-and-mortar market by roughly 12 percent, an impact that has decreased rents, increased retail vacan- cies and left landlords increasingly anxious. But even in this period of widespread adjustment, the number of store openings nationwide has outpaced closings. We see this in Fairfield County, Connecticut, with first-quarter vacancy rates in 2018 totaling 3.7 percent, 30 basis points lower than one year ago, according to CoStar Group. The retailers that aren’t surviving are those that aren’t adapting to con- temporary market dynamics. Techno- logical and social disintermediation create the chaotic decision-making process of adapt or perish. Still, amid today’s anxieties, here are three examples of adaptation that offer promise. Selling an Experience Stores that are succeeding today are often the ones that have realized that retail is now less about selling goods and more about selling an experience. Below we offer two examples in Fairfield County, both designed to add a stimulating overlay of experience into typically more tepid retail settings. The first illustration of a retail experience is the indoor adventure ropes course located within furniture and mattress retailer Jordan’s 150,000-square-foot showroom along New Haven’s Long Wharf. Touted …
Denver industrial assets are achieving record pricing as cap rates compress well below 5 percent for Class A product. As this is happening, developers are taking on hefty projects, signaling that Denver’s industrial real estate cycle is stretching its legs instead of winding down. Among the headlines: • Denver’s single largest investment transaction on record occurred in the first quarter of 2018. The Pauls Corporation sold 14 Class A, highly functional assets totaling 1.9 million square feet to Clarion Partners in the Airport submarket. • The largest speculative build of 701,900 square feet is underway by Majestic Realty. Prologis is building more than 500,000 square feet in the Central submarket, while Hyde Development kicked off the 1.8-million-square-foot 76 Commerce Center project in the “less than proven” I-76 Corridor. • Industrial land pricing has doubled in recent years to now double-digit pricing as triple-net asking lease rates approach $8 per square foot. Despite these impressive headlines, here are three reasons we expect further expansion in Denver’s industrial sector into 2019. Investor Preferences Align CBRE’s 2018 Americas Investor Intentions Survey revealed a dramatic increase in the popularity of industrial investments compared to years prior. Half of investors in the Americas are seeking …
Growing up in Lubbock in the 1990s, cotton fields were everywhere. No growth existed in the southwest part of town, and few new apartments were built. Today those same cotton fields are housing developments; the southwest part of town is filled with high-quality retail and more than 2,000 apartment units have been delivered since 2015. Lubbock is thriving behind its sub-3 percent unemployment rate, strong agricultural sector, university with 40,000 students and a very strong healthcare sector. Available capital and financing options are plentiful. Many have taken notice, however, which has affected rent growth and vacancy in the market. Economic Overview One of the biggest misconceptions of the Lubbock economy involves the role of the oil and gas industry. A myriad of investors often incorrectly tie Lubbock with Midland/Odessa in this regard, ascribing to Lubbock the historical swings of an energy-based economy. But the comparison is pure apples to oranges. Although energy does have an impact, Lubbock boasts more economic diversity than many of its West Texas neighbors. A direct result of Lubbock’s diversity is the unemployment rate, which is one of the lowest in the state at 2.7 percent. This strong performance in the job market stems from an …
Healthcare properties present a tremendous opportunity for real estate developers in the Milwaukee market and the upper Midwest. The national and regional healthcare real estate sectors remain on solid footing, according to the 2018 Healthcare Marketplace Report from Colliers International. The sector remains attractive in terms of both stability and diversification. There will always be a demand for healthcare services as the U.S. population continues to age at an unprecedented rate. A growing number of Milwaukee-based health systems have announced plans to expand in bids to gain or maintain market share. The merger of Aurora Healthcare with Advocate Health Care Network to create a single health system known as Advocate Aurora Health is a recent example. There’s been a significant expansion of and increased focus on the outpatient ambulatory environment. Health systems face significant capital expenditures in order to maintain aging hospitals. Alternative developments such as specialty outpatient facilities and micro hospitals have gained momentum and allow for expansion to remain competitive while efficient. With the emerging trend toward population health management, hospitals and health systems take on the financial risk of providing care for a certain population across a certain geography. Having to take on the additional risk of …
More apartments are being rented in Southern Connecticut, which is benefiting multifamily properties in the Fairfield County/New Haven region in several important ways. For New Haven, this means the return of rent growth. In Fairfield County, the added demand for rentals continues to support new development. An improved outlook for both markets has also positively influenced investment activity. In 2017, multifamily operators in the New Haven metropolitan area had one of their best years since the recession, thanks to improvements on multiple fronts. Appeal for apartments has generated the second-highest net absorption level so far this decade. Demand increased in the city itself, where Yale University and Yale New Haven Hospital offer numerous employment opportunities, as well as in the surrounding greater New Haven suburbs. Absorption of rental units surpassed that of deliveries by a multiple of three, facilitating a major drop in vacancy. The metro’s overall vacancy rate at the end of the first quarter was 4.7 percent, 270 basis points below where it was just two years ago. Equally important, healthier demand has also aided rent values. Monthly effective rates started to rise in 2017 after retreating in 2015 and 2016, with rent growth nearing 6 percent year over …
An interesting metric was reached in the Denver multifamily market during the first quarter of 2018 — and that’s record absorption. The city already boasts accolades for quality of life, talks of strong in-migration and speculation of becoming the location for the second Amazon headquarters. After these, the most common topic of conversation for multifamily professionals is the unprecedented construction pipeline and just when will we hit an inflection point where the market won’t accept any more Class A, market-rate apartments. It seems we’re still not there. As of the first quarter of 2018, the trailing 12-month absorption was more than 10,000 units. That’s more units than what was completed in 2017 and the highest absorption on record. The result was metro-wide vacancy dipping year-over-year to 5.79 percent, limited concessions and metro-wide annual rent growth at 3.8 percent. Denver’s average rent now stands at $1,405 per unit and $1.62 per square foot. The Central Business District (CBD) experienced the most absorption this quarter, accounting for nearly 25 percent of total metro absorption. Annual rents also grew by 2.7 percent, leading the CBD to regain its title for most expensive rental submarket in Denver with rents per-unit averaging $1,835. But development …
It’s safe to say that the Jackson MSA, as a whole, responds slower to national trends than the vast majority of markets in the United States. In regards to the economic recovery, Jackson is about two years behind the national economy post-recession. The retail market is just now moving from the recovery phase and into the expansion phase of its growth cycle, which is evidenced by decreasing vacancy rates and stabilizing lease rates. A limited amount of new construction has been a main driver for absorption in this area. There is approximately 35 million square feet of retail inventory in the Jackson MSA, with a moderate amount of new construction scheduled to deliver in the next 12 months. The first phase of expansion for the retail market is beginning to occur and is expected to gain in strength over the next 12 to 18 months. From an investment sales standpoint, Jackson has seen continued interest and stable transaction velocity from local and national retail investors in the last 12 to 24 months. As cap rates have compressed nationally, investors have continued to look to tertiary markets like Jackson in search of higher yields. The current going-in cap rate for acquisitions …
The Midland-Odessa retail market continues to get stronger due to the rise in oil prices over the last year. West Texas intermediate crude oil prices have risen from around $46 per barrel in June 2017 to more than $72 per barrel as of June 27, 2018. According to a recent survey from the Dallas branch of the Federal Reserve, new technology is allowing energy companies to break even at $25 per barrel. In addition, the Midland Development Corp. (MDC) notes that the combined Midland-Odessa unemployment rate is down to 2.8 percent, which is the lowest on record. The rise in prices, combined with this scaling of the oil-driven economy, is contributing to local consumers having more disposable income. In turn, spending at restaurants, hotels and retail stores in the Midland-Odessa area is up across the board. Housing Connects The Dots Due to the rise in oil prices and strong economic growth, demand for more housing developments in the Midland-Odessa market is strong and getting stronger. And wherever there’s a boom in housing, a new wave of retail development is likely to follow. According to the MDC, roughly 500 single-family building permits had been issued as of March, the highest first-quarter …
Like many other Midwestern markets, Milwaukee is experiencing a mixed bag in retail. While headlines have been dominated primarily by closures, there has also been an abundance of new activity in the market. While it’s taken its hits, the retail market has fought back and retail vacancy has actually decreased slightly to 4.4 percent in the first quarter, according to CoStar Group. Rents are edging up and Class A space is difficult to find. The inventory of Class B and C space is more robust. Due to low demand, landlords are not enjoying much negotiating leverage. Market turbulence On the surface, multiple big box closings that have occurred in metro Milwaukee this year paint a gloomy picture of the retail marketplace. Grocery, wholesale, apparel, toys, restaurants and other categories of retailers have closed fairly rapidly. These include Pick ‘n Save (Kroger) in Cudahy, Sendik’s in West Milwaukee, Sam’s Club in West Allis, Toys ‘R’ Us and Babies ‘R’ Us in Brookfield and iPic Theater at Bayshore Town Center in Glendale. Another ominous cloud is the Bon-Ton bankruptcy and the closure of seven area Boston Store locations, including the company’s clearance center and furniture gallery in metro Milwaukee. Compound that with …
The Rhode Island retail market has seen a considerable level of activity over the last year that presents promising signs of a strengthening economy and an improving property market. Generally speaking, each submarket has seen positive absorption of retail space, with the new concepts entering the market for the first time, as well as existing operators further expanding their footprints and market share. From street retail to lifestyle and big-box centers, each class has seen significant activity that represents a much healthier retail climate than popular opinion and media reporting might suggest. Some specific transactions are worth noting. Garden City Center in Cranston continues to outperform as the dominant outdoor shopping destination in the greater Providence market. This past year, The Wilder Companies built an approximately 29,800-square-foot addition at Garden City, which allowed them to bring Boston favorites Legal C Bar and Tavern in the Square to town. These are the first Rhode Island locations for both operators, which points to the strength of the local Rhode Island economy as well as the faith tenants have in the long-term viability of the best retail projects. Wilder was also able to bring The Simple Greek, Anthony’s Coal Fired Pizza, Z Gallerie …