Like most major cities, Houston has had its fair share of market cycles. However, this most recent decline in the local economy’s growth rate that was caused by a steep drop of oil prices put a heightened level of stress on the Houston office market. Fortunately, the energy sector has turned the corner, and, paired with the ever-diversifying economic base, the Houston economy is buzzing again. As such, Houston’s population and job growth have translated into early signs of improvement in office market fundamentals. The metro’s employment base, which is currently seeing some of the highest employment numbers in history, is growing at more than twice the national rate. This rapid rate of expansion has provided the office market with much-needed positive momentum as we look toward the new year. Improving Fundamentals The much-anticipated turnaround in the office market is here. Asking rents, occupancy rates and absorption are all increasing across the metro area and across all building classifications. In the third quarter of 2018, the office market posted approximately 1.1 million square feet of positive net absorption. This is a significant improvement compared to the negative net absorption of roughly 1.1 million square feet in the first quarter of …
Market Reports
Last month I attended the NAI Global convention in Austin, Texas, and had the opportunity to talk with industrial real estate brokers from around the country. One thing was clear: there are many markets across the country that are facing the same dilemma as we are in West Michigan. The supply of vacant industrial buildings is at an all-time low, and construction costs are rising rapidly. Booming economy The manufacturing industry is extremely strong in West Michigan. Historically known for the automotive and furniture sectors, West Michigan has developed a strong presence in the medical device manufacturing, food processing and aerospace sectors. This diversity is a good indicator of stability for the West Michigan manufacturing sector for the foreseeable future. The strength of the economy has encouraged many companies to expand operations and has attracted numerous out-of-market companies to West Michigan. Low inventory The industrial vacancy rate in the greater Grand Rapids market is currently 1.6 percent, which is historically low. In order to provide some context, in 2012 the vacancy rate was 7.2 percent. Typically, when the vacancy rate is this low, it is a clear indicator that inventory is too low, and the construction of new buildings …
A combination of location and demand for e-commerce continues to drive industrial activity across New Jersey, spurring increased activity in the already robust northern and central regions of the state and driving a frenzy of activity in the south. Unlike some of the previous speculative booms, however, this one appears be carefully thought out and is likely to be sustainable. Northern and Central New Jersey We are seeing an enormous increase in the number of tenants interested in the market who face a limited supply. Across Northern and Central New Jersey, a record low vacancy rate of 3.4 percent is pushing rental rates to an all-time high despite a healthy but cautious building cycle. The region is an inherently attractive one, thanks to its proximity to New York City and Port Newark as well as the ability to reach 60-plus million people in the tri-state area in a matter of hours. Speculative development across North and Central New Jersey is ongoing, and we anticipate a number of legacy sites to be redeveloped during the next two- to five-year period. Of course, the 2008 recession remains on everyone’s mind. Accordingly, speculative velocity is not as robust as it was in previous …
The industrial market’s direct vacancy in greater Reno increased by 80 basis points to 4.53 percent at the end of the third quarter of 2018. It was carried by 715,821 square feet of positive net absorption, a relatively below average figure, as well as by an increase in new deliveries. Notwithstanding, pending transactions currently underway in the fourth quarter should mitigate the increase in the market’s overall vacancy. Tenant demand in the third quarter was robust for spaces with less than 50,000 square feet. Transactions that involved Class A space accounted for 84 percent of the total gross absorption. The North Valley was the best performer of all the submarkets, resulting in a 35 percent decrease in availability. The I-80/East submarket, however, recorded a substantially negative quarter due to deliveries/new availability pushing the vacancy to 12 percent. Sublease availability was static for yet another quarter, which demonstrates stability in the market. The average transaction size in Reno decreased slightly to 53,195 square feet. Heading into the fourth quarter, the market witnessed an increase in inquiries and tours involving more than 200,000 square feet. This gave existing landlords confidence that vacancies and new deliveries will be leased in the short term. …
Strong market performance has allowed the Louisville industrial market to recently post the highest quarter of positive net absorption in market history during the second quarter of 2018, which occurred on the heels of the second-highest quarter of positive net absorption recorded just one quarter earlier. This outcome has been the result of recent build-to-suit projects, the availability of quality product and growing demand by new and prospective tenants in the Louisville market. Beyond healthy supply and demand fundamentals, Louisville is achieving great balance with access to available labor along with low utility costs. Tenant Demand Picks Up There are currently over 20 active prospects considering 200,000 square feet or larger in the metro Louisville market. Much of this demand is attributed to the high level of activity at the two local Ford Motor Co. plants, as well as the proximity of the UPS Worldport, the 5.2 million-square-foot-core of UPS’s global air network located in the heart of metro Louisville. Along with the natural interest from companies in the automotive supply chain and e-commerce companies benefiting from the proximity to UPS, we have recently seen an increase in pharmaceutical and food-related companies considering Louisville for a location. Strong Labor Force …
Mixed-use development is not new. It has been around since the shop owner lived in the apartment above the store. Today, however, the term is used to describe an urban environment that allows people to walk easily among a variety of integrated functions. At first glance, one might think mixed-use development in the Plano-Frisco-McKinney area, known as the Far North submarket, is strictly for big-name developers. Familiar destinations such as Legacy West in Plano and The Star in Frisco underscore this notion, offering retail, restaurants, office, hotels and apartments. Take a closer look, however, and you’ll see that the region is also starting to add smaller mixed-use projects that provide convenience, amenities and experience for occupants and visitors. Numbers Matter Will the many kinds of mixed-use development happening now in Far North Dallas be sustainable? If the current market reports are any indication, then the answer is yes. The saying goes that if the vacancy rate in Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) is less than 20 percent, then the construction cranes come out. CoStar’s Mid-Year 2018 report shows that the DFW office market ended the second quarter with a 15 percent vacancy rate. Specifically in the Far North Dallas, which also comprises …
Today, Detroit looks starkly different than a decade ago. The city was hit hard by the Great Recession, but shortly thereafter, businesses started moving their operations into the downtown corridor. Businessman Dan Gilbert moved Quicken Loans into its downtown headquarters in August 2010, bringing approximately 1,700 employees with him. Today, Quicken’s footprint has expanded to 17,000 employees working downtown. Other companies followed, such as when we moved our headquarters downtown in 2012. As the city has regained its footing, retail has helped bring people into the downtown corridor, both from around the city and from out of the suburbs. To date, Woodward Avenue and Capitol Park have been the two main hubs of retail activity in downtown Detroit, with once-vacant buildings housing national brands and unique entrepreneurs. As these two neighborhoods become more populated, retailers are starting to look for other neighborhoods in Detroit with potential to be redeveloped into standout retail options. This begs the question: can other neighborhoods in Detroit flourish and support retail, beyond the central business district? As Detroit’s renaissance expands to other neighborhoods throughout the city, we expect there to be more opportunities ahead. Any incoming retailers and developers should consider what categories may be …
It’s starting to feel like the 1970s all over again in Reno’s multifamily market. This is particularly true in terms of occupancy. A recent report from RealPage noted the current market’s eye-popping 97.3 percent multifamily occupancy level. This figure was only eclipsed once, nearly four decades ago, at a double eye-popping 97.9 percent when the region experienced a spike in new jobs. Reno’s total job count continues to grow at a record pace, fueling a nearly full apartment market. But, of course, the housing and job markets in Reno are both much larger than they were in the ‘70s, though there are similarities. In fact, current market conditions bring to mind the ages-old adage, “Those who fail to heed the lessons of the past are condemned to repeat them.” Developers cannot build multifamily units fast enough to sate demand. New residents arriving for new jobs cannot easily find an apartment, and those who do may have to pay a higher-than-expected rental rate. Consider this from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: Reno’s economy expanded during the four years ending in May 2018 (the latest statistics available from the Bureau) by a steady 4.2 percent. This was an enviable gain for …
The face of Louisville is changing rapidly, but it has leveraged what the state of Kentucky is historically known for best, bourbon. Louisville is a short drive from most of the legendary distilleries in the Commonwealth. However, the downtown Urban Bourbon Trail is booming with tourism and many brands actually distilling their spirits onsite. Jim Beam’s Urban Stillhouse, the Evan Williams Bourbon Experience, Copper & Kings, Angel’s Envy Distillery and Rabbit Hole Distillery are locations where patrons can sample and buy their drink of choice and learn about the history of these companies and the evolution of the industry as a whole. Most recently in June, Brown-Forman Corp. opened its Old Forester Distilling Co. experience at the newly restored Whiskey Row on Main Street. The company is not only distilling and sharing its history at the site, but like others on the Urban Bourbon Trail there are areas to host receptions and parties. Duluth Trading opened next door on Whiskey Row late last year to begin to fill a growing need for retail space downtown. Convention Center, Hotels After two years being closed, earlier this month Louisville celebrated the reopening of the $207 million renovation and reconstruction of the Kentucky …
For the remainder of 2018, positive demand drivers will alter new apartment supply’s impact on operations in Louisville. The metro has had a large volume of new apartments to open this business cycle. Since 2013, an annual average of 1,500 units has been completed, totaling approximately 7,400 apartment units. As this new supply entered the market, initially strong leasing helped push vacancy down 100 basis points to 4.6 percent at the end of 2016. However, absorption of apartments softened last year as new units continued to open, lifting vacancy back up 90 basis points to 5.6 percent. This year, approximately 2,800 apartment units will be completed, further testing demand for luxury rentals in Louisville. A team of factors should fuel positive absorption, preventing an alarming uptick and keeping the vacancy rate in the mid-5 percent range. Payroll expansions by tech firms, manufacturing companies and hospitals will support consistent year-over-year hiring and income growth this year. Sub-4 percent unemployment suggests employers will recruit from outside the market to fill open positions or hire recent graduates from the University of Louisville and other local colleges. These job gains should increase the rate of household formations and bolster the market’s millennial base, an …