Market Reports

Nashville’s Urban Retail Development Boom Driven by Job, Population Growth

by John Nelson March 26, 2018

In its 2018 Emerging Trends in Real Estate survey, Urban Land Institute (ULI) named Nashville the No. 9 U.S. market to watch. Factors contributing to Nashville’s appearance as a top 10 market in ULI’s report for the past three years include a re-emergent downtown, strong population growth, market attractiveness to millennials and a low cost of living. These factors — along with game-changing urban retail developments and the creativity of its culinary scene — have elevated Nashville’s retail market over the last few years. As in its 2015 and 2016 reports, ULI once again refers to Nashville as an “18-hour city.” A defining element of an 18-hour city is a vibrant urban core with entertainment and dining attractions bustling between 7 a.m. and 2 a.m., well beyond the traditional business hours of 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. Downtown Nashville is a hotspot for retail development, as the area continues to draw record-breaking numbers of crowds from tourists and locals alike to events, restaurants and conventions. From the Predators’ historic run in the 2017 Stanley Cup Finals to the 46th annual CMA Music Festival that brought $57.7 million in direct visitor spending to the nightly concerts at Ryman Auditorium, downtown is …

March 26, 2018

Market Reports Multifamily Texas Texas Market Reports

Multifamily Occupancy Holds Firm in San Antonio Despite Record Deliveries in 2017

by Taylor Williams March 23, 2018

There’s no question that the San Antonio multifamily market has had the reputation of being the steady tortoise in a race against the more nimble Texas hares of Houston, Dallas and Austin. We all know how the fable ends — the hare, confident of an easy win, takes a nap while the tortoise secures victory. Could 2018 be the year that our “slow and steady” hero finds its place at the top of the Texas market performance? As it stands, the Alamo City is enjoying an apartment occupancy rate of 92.1 percent, which is flat on a year-over-year basis. But given the amount of new supply that entered the market in 2017 — a cycle-high 7,230 units — that’s a remarkable number. We ended 2017 with an average rent of $1.14 per square foot, which is flat compared to third-quarter figures, but that number still represents 3.64 percent growth from the $1.10 average from the fourth quarter of 2016. So what does it mean for the market’s immediate future? The San Antonio construction pipeline continues to be a focal point and as things progressed, there have been some surprises. While 2017 marked the cyclical peak for deliveries, and there has …

March 23, 2018

Market Reports Midwest Midwest Market Reports Minnesota Retail

From Pop-Up Shops to Escape Rooms, Minneapolis Embraces Experiential Retail

by Kristin Harlow March 22, 2018

The retail sector in metro Minneapolis continues to adapt to changing consumer preferences, fast-moving economic opportunities and new state laws. Over the course of 2017, the retail real estate market showed positive growth in every category. Absorption of 1.4 million square feet surpassed the 1.3 million square feet of deliveries, according to CoStar Group. The rising cost of construction, low vacancy rate (3.1 percent) and increasing rental rates are creating new barriers to entry for retail businesses. The aforementioned factors, along with a newfound confidence in the rising economy, are causing landlords of all magnitude to become more selective with the quality of tenants they accept. Landlords will continue to become more reserved with regard to the tenant allowances they provide for new tenants. We have seen retail giants such as Walmart and Target add new services that emphasize both value and convenience and bring shoppers back for quick fill-in trips. Minneapolis-based Target Corp. announced the public rollout of its Target Restock program, a next-day delivery service for household essentials that is designed to compete with Amazon’s Prime Pantry. After being beta-tested by its employees, the program is currently only available in about nine markets, but plans are to slowly …

March 22, 2018

Market Reports Office Southeast Southeast Market Reports Tennessee

Nashville’s Hottest Office Sector is Tight Race Between Urban Core, Suburbs

by John Nelson March 19, 2018

Nashville’s office market, frequently heralded as up and coming, continues to see a great deal of interest from both local and outside investors, and the region’s rapid population growth and low vacancy rates continue to sustain a construction boom. Even with a high influx of new projects highlighting local news, the Nashville area still maintains the lowest vacancy rates of any market in the United States, according to CoStar. Compared to the rest of the country, Nashville has the second highest employment growth and the highest office employment growth, combined with one of the lowest unemployment rates of any major metro area. These encouraging demographics lead most to believe that Nashville will continue its growth rate, especially in the urban core. Since the 1990s the Nashville market followed national trends, seeing most office market growth creep from the central business district (CBD) to the suburban submarkets. After the Great Recession began to subside, which around here was in 2011, an optimistic focus was placed on the growth of the CBD. This local storyline was buttressed by a national narrative of a return to urbanism. This growth, which really began its current unprecedented run late in 2011 and early 2012, is …

March 19, 2018

Market Reports Retail Texas Texas Market Reports

Limited Construction Positions San Antonio Retail Market for Steady Growth

by Taylor Williams March 16, 2018

San Antonio is a testament to the old proverb that slow and steady wins the race. Instead of becoming overheated in response to the benefits of strong employment and population growth, the metro’s retail market continues to take a measured approach to growth. That approach has enabled an exceptional occupancy rate for its brick-and-mortar retail inventory. Development vs. Occupancy Measured, demand-based construction is one of the key reasons that San Antonio’s current retail market enjoys a near-record balance of supply and demand. Currently, the market’s overall occupancy is a healthy 94 percent. We expect this rate to be maintained as retail demand continues during a time of very limited construction of new retail product. The market’s limited retail construction of only 360,000 square feet this past year was dominated by H-E-B, which opened two new stores in 2017. The locations came on line either freestanding or with limited peripheral small-shop space, further tightening the market for available space. To illustrate exactly how low new construction is, we compared the current market to a decade ago, when the economy was in a similar cycle. The market’s occupancy at year-end 2007 was 91.2 percent, healthy but notably below the current 94 percent …

March 16, 2018

Indiana Market Reports Midwest Midwest Market Reports Multifamily

Multifamily Urban Infill Development Spreads Into the Suburbs of Indianapolis

by Kristin Harlow March 15, 2018

If you happen to read or listen to Freddie Mac officials, the key economic factor driving housing demand is the labor market. In 2017, the Indiana Economic Development Corp. (IEDC) secured 293 commitments from companies across the country to locate or grow in Indiana. Collectively, this will make for more than $7 billion in new investments and 30,158 new jobs in the coming years, marking the highest annual commitment in IEDC history. Companies currently expanding and adding thousands of jobs throughout the region have been contributing greatly to the growth of the multihousing market in central Indiana. More than 2,380 market-rate apartment units were completed in 2017. Construction doesn’t appear to be slowing down either, as over 2,200 units were under construction at the beginning of 2018. Apartment deliveries soar Central Indiana has experienced a marked increase in overall multifamily deliveries. Between 2014 and 2017, developers delivered approximately 15,000 new units, compared with 13,500 units over the previous 14 years combined. A large majority of the projects are greater than 100 units, particularly the market-rate developments. Lately, most of these projects have contained pockets of amenities or are located near amenities. Downtown Indianapolis was home to one of the more …

March 15, 2018

Indiana Industrial Market Reports Midwest Midwest Market Reports

Driven by E-Commerce, Indy’s Industrial Bulk Market Continues Growth Spurt

by Kristin Harlow March 15, 2018

In 2017, newly signed bulk space deals in the greater Indianapolis industrial market totaled 10.2 million square feet. Of that total, over 50 percent had some affiliation with e-commerce. With 26 new buildings and another 5.7 million square feet under construction, the Indianapolis industrial market will clearly become increasingly linked to the performance of e-commerce as the total share of online retail sales remains in a significant growth mode. Projections by Cushman & Wakefield show that by 2020 nearly 12 percent of all retail sales will be associated with e-commerce — three times what it was 10 years ago. Stronger growth will be driven by the onset of e-grocery and e-pharma. Additionally, e-commerce will continue to be a driving force in these industrial deals because the online industry is getting better at what it does. Coming off the strongest holiday season since the Great Recession, companies are now focused on the cost of package returns and are re-examining the value of brick-and-mortar stores. When it comes to package returns, not only is the processing time significantly slower, but it is six times costlier to return a package using regular shipping methods. Returning items to physical store locations is the cheapest …

March 15, 2018

Market Reports Multifamily Southeast Southeast Market Reports Tennessee

Is Nashville’s Multifamily Market Overbuilt? Maybe, But Not for Long

by John Nelson March 12, 2018

Nashville has set several notable records in recent years for job growth, rent growth, population growth, tourism and tax revenue, among others. But for the multifamily industry, the most notable benchmarks lately have been related to the amount of inventory that has been delivered. However, the more interesting and less obvious data point is the record level of renter demand that Nashville is currently experiencing. As of third-quarter 2017, Nashville led the country in relative net absorption, with 4.9 percent of the existing inventory being absorbed. This equates to approximately 6,300 units. This demand is fueled by incredibly resilient job creation, as Nashville has increased its employed labor force by 20 percent over the last five years — more than 160,000 jobs. With that as the backdrop, the big question on everyone’s mind is the impact of new supply. In short, yes, there are pockets of oversupply, with approximately 8,500 units delivered in 2017 compared with net renter demand of roughly 6,300. However, with urban deliveries projected to drop off 40 percent in 2018, and 80 percent in 2019, and no slowdown in renter demand on the horizon, the current imbalance is likely to correct itself in relatively short order. …

March 12, 2018

Market Reports Office Texas Texas Market Reports

New Breed of Millennials, Adaptive Reuse Drive San Antonio’s Office Market

by Taylor Williams March 9, 2018

Would you believe that San Antonio is the second most sought-after city for millennials? According to local media pundits and reports from Forbes, San Antonio is attracting the greatest number of millennials of any city in Texas, even beating out Austin, the original yuppie capital of the state. San Antonio, which had taken a back seat to Austin in terms of creating tech jobs and drawing millennial workers, has surged ahead in recent years. The metro has begun to appeal to a different breed of people born between 1980 and 1999. We refer to members of this group as the “logical millennials.” While entrepreneurial in spirit, the San Antonio millennial differs from the standard millennial through his or her understanding of the need for affordable housing and a lower cost of living. The influx of this sub-type of millennials has created growth in urban areas, most notably the Pearl District, which is situated adjacent to the downtown area. The popularity of this mixed-use shopping and community destination has spurred the development of a number of new urban lifestyle projects. Frost Tower, Rising Rents Another indicator of San Antonio’s success at attracting a younger demographic is embodied in the most significant …

March 9, 2018

Illinois Market Reports Midwest Midwest Market Reports Office

For Some Office Tenants in Chicago, Being Out of the Loop Is In

by Kristin Harlow March 8, 2018

Office developers in Chicago are thinking outside the box — and outside the central business district — in order to cater to tenants in search of creative office space. While there will always be companies that want the cachet that a business address in the Loop offers, others realize the strategic advantages of urban, non-CBD locations as a recruiting tool. Live/work/play neighborhoods like River North and the West Loop are growing because high-profile employers want to attract a younger workforce that is drawn to the loft-style offices these neighborhoods can provide. This can be achieved either through ground-up development projects like McDonald’s soon-to-open headquarters at 1035 W. Randolph St., or adaptive reuse projects such as 1K Fulton, a former cold-storage facility that now counts Google among its tenants. Yet as rents in these submarkets continue to climb, office users are starting to ask whether they can get the same space for less money in equally desirable locations. For many, the answer is a resounding “yes.” New opportunities While neighborhoods near the CBD such as River West and Pilsen have benefitted from this office “ripple effect,” Chicago’s recently rezoned North Branch Industrial Corridor is perhaps the most alluring and uncharted territory …

March 8, 2018

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