Market Reports

— By Anthony Lydon, Executive Managing Director, JLL — At $403 billion in annual gross domestic product, Arizona is now the nation’s 18th largest GDP economy, recently passing Minnesota and Indiana. With its expected growth over the next 24 months, the state is on track to become the nation’s 16th largest GDP economy, surpassing Tennessee and Maryland.  Like a shortlist of other fortunate U.S. markets, Arizona can credit a portion of this growth to its thriving logistics sector. The potential that industrial real estate offers for nearshoring — that commanding force with the power to rapidly diversify and expand a local economy. In Arizona alone, every $1 spent in the logistics industry has a $2 to $2.50 “multiplier effect” in the categories of earnings, revenue and jobs. The ability to capture that growth has been transformed in recent years by the CHIPS Act. This has provided, among other things, a 25 percent tax credit for investing in facilities that manufacture semiconductors or related manufacturing equipment. The Inflation Reduction Act has also provided more than $270 million in tax credits for clean energy projects involving solar, wind, hydrogen, carbon sequestration and EV charging. These programs played a role in attracting TSMC, …

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By Kellen Cushing, Carmody MacDonald PC Commercial and residential construction projects are inherently complex undertakings involving numerous parties working under tight deadlines and limited budgets. Change is inevitable and unpredictable in these projects, most often due to changes in project scope, incomplete or incorrect design, and unforeseen physical conditions.   When something doesn’t go according to plan, it can impact the other parties’ abilities to perform their jobs in a timely manner and lead to litigation. Claims and litigation can be costly, time consuming and stressful for all parties, and may damage the relationship and reputation of the parties involved. Proper contractual planning among project owners and contractors can reduce the likelihood of litigation. Making preliminary management plans and incorporating them into the project’s contracts provides effective ways to address changes that can occur during a project and keep things moving forward. While preparation cannot always prevent roadblocks in construction projects, preemptive planning can make for much smoother sailing, even in the face of unpredictable circumstances.     The best ways to avoid or minimize costly and time-consuming lawsuits include the following: Know your contract. Create a clear and comprehensive contract that defines the scope, schedule, budget, quality and responsibilities of …

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— By Mike Ballard, Partner, Ascent Multifamily Accounting in Las Vegas — Las Vegas — known for its vibrant entertainment scene and thriving real estate market — is experiencing the early signs of a recession. With one of the most substantial construction forecasts in the nation, the Las Vegas multifamily real estate sector is poised to witness a surge in supply with 8,000 units to come online by 2025, according to Avison Young.  However, despite the anticipated surge in deliveries, the Las Vegas market has seen fewer construction starts this year. We can anticipate that the Valley will once again have a shortage of rental housing in 2025 and 2026, which will increase rents and cause concessions to evaporate.    It is also anticipated that up to 10 percent of commercial real estate within the Valley may face foreclosure in the next 18 months. The city is currently experiencing one of the highest rates of foreclosure in the country, with nearly one in every 1,800 homes experiencing foreclosure. This can be attributed to high interest rates and the prospect of a recession forming a dark cloud over the nation’s real estate market.  According to CoStar, quarterly multifamily sales volume has yet to eclipse $150 million in 2023. The surge in supply is also …

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By Lisa Narducci-Nix of Drucker + Falk As a third-party manager of more than 7,000 multifamily units in the Raleigh-Durham metropolitan area, the question we’ve been asked the most lately is, “What do you see for 2024 in terms of rent growth and occupancy?” Alongside other concerning variables such as liability insurance and payroll, rent and occupancy performance seem to be front and center in most conversations.  Rents have notably cooled from the unprecedented growth enjoyed most of 2022. According to a multifamily market report on Raleigh by Yardi Matrix, rent growth was negative 0.2 percent in third-quarter 2023 compared to the second quarter and down 1.5 percent on a year-over-year basis.  We expect that those numbers represent a market correction of sorts from the unsustainable growth in 2022 as employment and population growth remain strong in the Raleigh-Durham market. In recent headlines, Apple is planning to begin its first phase of its 281-acre office campus, which will add 3,000 jobs at full build-out, and VinFast will begin developing its $4 billion electric vehicle plant in nearby Chatham County in 2025.  Additionally, the U.S. Census Bureau found that the population of the Raleigh-Durham MSA grew by 2 percent in 2021 …

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— By Rob Martensen, Vice Chair, Colliers International — What’s hot in Phoenix’s industrial market? This is a question we get asked a lot from developers and property owners looking to enter our region.  The topic of conversation is mostly centered around the amount of space under construction in the Phoenix MSA and what parts of town are seeing the most activity.  In the past, we had submarkets that would be more or less attractive, and we would steer clients in that direction. Today, however, the entire Phoenix metropolitan area is in play for tenants and owners. Greater Phoenix has been fortunate to land several “whales,” large corporations that bring multiple suppliers with them.  Naturally, the one most talked about is Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation (TSMC) in North Phoenix.  TSMC took down nearly 1,600 acres of land to build a $12 billion chip making factory.  The company has since announced it will immediately commence construction on Phase II of the project. Intel is another chip manufacturer that has had a presence in nearby Chandler, but is now under construction on a $20 billion expansion. Both of these undertakings will continue to feed companies that move to Phoenix and support not …

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By Stephen Daum, Colliers The eyes of the sporting world once again focus on downtown Indianapolis as it hosts the 2024 NBA All-Star Game at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in mid-February. It is anticipated that the game will have a $320 million economic impact to the city. Indianapolis was set to hold the 2021 NBA All-Star Game, but the COVID-19 shutdown forced a postponement until 2024.  Similarly, the pandemic also stunted development efforts in the central business district. But like the return of the All-Star Game, downtown development projects have rebounded, with an estimated $9 billion in projects set to be completed over the next few years.  In anticipation of hosting the All-Star Game, Pacers Sports & Entertainment finished an extensive $400 million remodel of Gainbridge Fieldhouse, including new seats, expanded social gathering areas, plus the new outdoor Bicentennial Unity Plaza — offering public basketball courts and an ice skating rink in the winter. Overlooking Bicentennial Plaza is Commission Row, a 30,000-square-foot mixed-use, multi-story development. Basketball isn’t the only sport driving downtown development. Indy Eleven, a United Soccer League (USL) franchise headed by local developer Ersal Ozdemir, has begun construction on its expansive Indy Eleven Park. This will be located just south …

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DIV Industrial has seen the demand, and is delivering for Fortune 100 tenants that need to be accommodated in the Phoenix market. The Irvine, Calif.-based investor and developer just closed on 47 acres in Goodyear that will soon serve as the home of Sarival Business Park, a 847,988-square-foot, Class A industrial complex. At completion, the modern, LEED-certified business park will include five free-standing buildings ranging from 135,000 square feet to 235,000 square feet. This transaction marks DIV’s first foray into the Phoenix market. Nicholas Ilagan, the firm’s co-founder and managing partner, notes there were many attributes that attracted him to this region.  “The Phoenix MSA continues to be one of the fastest-growing metros in the country,” he says. “The region is propelled by its established infrastructure, business-friendly approach, educated workforce, and accessibility to Southern California’s port markets and the Western U.S. population. Phoenix is attracting large corporations and Fortune 500 companies that are relocating or setting up new, efficient operations, such as data centers, distribution facilities and manufacturing operations.” This includes Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, which Ilagan notes has had a “huge boost to the local economy and stimulated employment growth.” Goodyear has also drawn in larger regional and national …

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By Derek Jacobs of Avison Young Through the financial uncertainty and confusion of the past four years, Raleigh-Durham has stood out as an exemplary industrial market that has strengthened in economic diversity and stability despite greater national and global market trends and challenges.  The outlook for Raleigh-Durham is very positive thanks to local and state governments that support business, an excellent central East Coast location and a market environment where industrial demand heavily outweighs supply. Triple-net rents in Raleigh-Durham grew by nearly 39 percent since first-quarter 2020, while total vacancy has remained below 4 percent.  The most affordable Class C product has an exceptionally low vacancy rate of 2.7 percent due to lower rent costs outweighing the opportunity costs of moving into a nicer, newer building that will be more expensive in most cases.  The newest and most costly Class A industrial product in Raleigh-Durham has also shown strong demand, with a vacancy rate (5.7 percent) lower than the vacancy rate for all industrial product classes combined across the country (6.1 percent). Industrial occupiers and residents in Raleigh-Durham work, do business in various industries and provide services that supply further market growth. Around half of the industrial property in Raleigh-Durham …

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— By Dave Cheatham, President, Velocity Retail Group and X Team Retail Advisors — Phoenix’s retail market has rebounded post-pandemic and is now considered a winning bet, along with industrial and multifamily. The market has benefitted from surging consumer demand, population expansion and a robust technology industry, largely fueled by accelerated growth in the chip manufacturing sector. Strong and positive economic performance has established a foundation on which retailers have built success across the Valley of the Sun. There are challenges, to be sure, which range from interest rate hikes and rising inflation to chaos in the capital markets and reduced investment transaction volume, in addition to increased construction costs. New construction has been limited, as evidenced by the fact that no Target, Lowe’s or Home Depot stores have been built in the Valley since the recession. That appears to be changing as plans for big box stores that had been idle for a decade are shifting to expansion mode once more. Second-generation space is in high demand due to the higher costs of building new, standalone stores. Market indicators are trending upward for the retail sector. Vacancies are at a record low, demand remains high and rents are continuing …

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By Adam Ferguson, Bernard Financial Group If 2022 was a lesson in how rapidly things can change in commercial real estate, 2023 was an exercise in adaptation for both borrowers and lenders alike. Detroit is no stranger to change or adaptation.  From becoming the Motor City and growing into the country’s fourth-largest city during the first half of the 20th century to a renaissance in the 2010s after several decades of bumps and bruises, Detroit continues to add to its storied history. With billions of dollars of investment within the city limits and growing suburban sectors, Detroit’s multifamily market is making significant advancements by adding fresh developments to a market where 38 percent of multifamily inventory is over 50 years old.  While certainly not the only catalyst, low interest rates help to spur development. Lower cost of capital is especially impactful in markets like Detroit where building costs are high and rents are low compared with other major markets. Southeast Michigan averaged over 3,800 units of multifamily housing building permits issued per year over the past decade. Compare that to an average of 988 from the decade prior and one can discern the growth in demand for multifamily housing financing …

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