Market Reports

As the U.S. economy passes through the third largest expansion cycle in the economic history, every sector in the economy has seen phenomenal growth over the last six to seven years. The growth in other industries has had a trickle-down effect on the real estate sector. U.S. real estate has seen rents surging and even surpassing the previous expansion cycle, as well as an increase in leasing and absorption activity and a record rise in the value of sales transactions. Manhattan has always been at the epicenter of this real estate growth. With the combination of developed market and investment-grade properties, Manhattan has regularly attracted the majority of foreign direct investment in the real estate sector throughout the country. Increased demand from TAMI (technology, advertising, media and information) and FIRE (finance, insurance and real estate) sector tenants have made these properties an attractive investment option for both the local institutional investors and foreign direct investment. The Manhattan commercial real estate market has seen a 33 percent (see footnote 1) increase in the transactions above $1,000 per square foot over the last seven years. These values are no longer limited to only trophy properties in Midtown but have spread across both Midtown …

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The Inland Empire multifamily market will retain its solid foundation of positivity this year as the economy again provides a healthy supply of new jobs and freshly formed households seek apartments to rent. The number of new multifamily units scheduled for delivery is a fraction of what it was last year, and this will place downward pressure on vacancy. Tightening vacancy will support another year of above-trend rent growth. Strong job growth in wholesale trade, government and transportation and warehousing positions has drawn many new employees to the Inland Empire in recent years. The number of 20- to 34-year-olds, who typically favor rental housing, has steadily increased. Growth in wholesale trade, government and warehousing will continue to attract Millennials in 2017, and the region’s employers are expected to add 27,500 new jobs overall. The Inland Empire’s employment boom has led to an increase in household formation, which has stimulated new multifamily construction. Developers fruitfully delivered 2,600 new units to the market in 2016. This exuberance, however, may well have been the peak for the current real estate cycle. This year, the projected number of apartment completions is just 500. This much more measured level of development will be quickly absorbed …

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Memphis may be known for its industrial market, but there are several interesting stories unfolding in the Memphis office market as well. Investors, both local and national, have found opportunities in an office market that can relate to the phrase, “slow and steady wins the race.” The Memphis office market consists of just over 52 million square feet, with nearly 60 percent of that in the Downtown, East and 385 Corridor submarkets and more than 85 percent of the Class A space located in those same submarkets. The Memphis metro ended 2016 with overall vacancy rates of 10.5 percent. Those rates have remained in the 10.5 to 10.9 percent range for the last two years. Class A vacancy has been on a slow and steady decline, falling from 10.2 percent at the end of 2014 to 7.9 percent at the end of 2016, its lowest level in more than a decade. This has prompted Class B owners to make investments in their properties, like the $7 million capital investment by Clark Tower, located in the East Memphis submarket, to upgrade mechanical systems and common areas. Rates, too, have been relatively steady for the last decade. At $17.07 per square foot …

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Despite waves of new development and rebounding oil prices, the Fort Worth office market hasn’t changed. It reflects the city’s lifestyle and attitude — stable and patient — and optimistic as to what the future holds. As businesses come and go and vacancy rates fluctuate, the Fort Worth office market views the long-term potential of its investments and confidently forges ahead. Go West Much of the new development we are seeing is southwest of downtown. The West Southwest submarket accounts for 62 percent of the construction begun or underway in 2016, with The Offices at Clearfork accounts for 330,000 of the 734,000 square feet built after 2016. The new vision for the master-planned, 270-acre Clearfork development includes 2,500 apartment units, two million square feet of office space, and 1.2 million square feet of retail space anchored by Nieman Marcus. Fort Worth’s CBD is adding its first new building since Sundance Square, which was built in 2014. The property at 640 Taylor St. will add 280,000 square feet and will be 51.5 percent leased upon completion. Its owner, Jetta Operating Co. Inc., and namesake, Frost National Bank, will occupy 140,000 square feet. Effects of Westward Migration The Offices at Clearfork and …

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No matter where you turn in the Indianapolis metro area, there is one common thread — change. From Mile Square to Downtown Fishers to Main Street in Speedway to Fletcher Place, all are nearly unrecognizable from a few years ago, and they are just a sampling of central Indiana commercial districts that are transforming at a rapid pace. Restaurants, retail and mixed-use developments are a big part of this rapid evolution, but the ripple effects on office real estate are taking hold. Tech jobs are catalyst Downtown Indy Inc. estimates the population in the central business district (CBD) will double from 2010 to 2020. According to the Indy Partnership, approximately 60 percent of the market’s 11,100 new jobs in 2016 came from the information technology and logistics fields. The downtown office market, where a majority of these jobs are landing, is evolving as a result of this technology job growth. In the past few years, large blocks of vacancy have plagued the Indianapolis CBD, specifically in high-rise office towers. In mid-2016, the largest of those availabilities became an asset. San Francisco-based Salesforce.com signed a new lease to consolidate operations into nearly 250,000 square feet on 11 floors in the tallest …

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The news is rife with stories regarding retail bankruptcies, store closures, challenges facing conventional shopping centers, and consolidations by department and specialty stores. Although not immune to some of these challenges, the Manhattan retail environment has enjoyed much activity during the second half of 2016 and the first part of 2017. To be sure, some submarkets and certain retail corridors have seen an increase in vacancies and a corresponding fall in asking rents. However, a number of new retailers have entered the market and certain strong retail brands have right-sized or repositioned themselves in the market. One high-profile shopping center opened its doors, and there is considerable retail development underway. It’s a big story but here are some highlights. Lower Manhattan There has been considerable focus on Lower Manhattan in the past several years, and this continues. On the grand scale, the opening in August 2016 of Westfield’s World Trade Center was the culmination of years in planning, constructing and leasing this $1.4 billion development. This multi-level project contains an assortment of national and international tenants, including fast fashion and better retail stores, such as Victoria’s Secret, Sephora, H&M, John Varvatos and London Jewelers. A 60,000-square-foot Eataly is the principal …

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In many ways, Portland’s industrial market has experienced a dramatic shift over the past five years, emerging as a market to be reckoned with. Demand has exceeded supply for the past six years, pushing vacancy to a 25-year low and rents up 18 percent year-over-year. Industrial users have grown in size, and large users have grown in number. Developments are bigger and migrating further from the traditional industrial submarkets. Investors are keen on Portland assets and are willing to pay a premium for quality product with a solid tenant roster. Portland’s population grew by 8 percent from 2010 to 2015, ranking it among the top 20 of the 50 largest U.S. cities. This growth in metro-area population has propelled strong demand from large e-commerce and distribution companies as they expand into new locations to service our growing consumer base. In 2010, we saw 11 users lease or build spaces of 100,000 square feet or more, and our average size lease was 24,854 square feet. By 2016, our average-sized industrial lease had grown to 39,218 square feet, an increase of 57.8 percent. We also saw 18 users build or lease space greater than 100,000 square feet. Portland’s industrial market users are …

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In 2015, the Memphis industrial sector reached a record-breaking 8.4 million square feet net absorption. Achieving absorption in 2015 at a level that was higher than before the recession would have seemingly set 2016 up for a downturn. However, industrial growth, with Memphis at the epicenter of world distribution, allowed the positive trajectory to continue. The Memphis MSA absorbed approximately 6 million square feet in 2016. Given ideal geographical positioning, Memphis is known as America’s Distribution Center, boasting unparalleled expertise in distribution and logistics. The Memphis International Airport houses the second-busiest cargo airport in the world. Companies recognize that Memphis offers reliable, cost-effective distribution, with the ability to reach 70 percent of the U.S. population within 24 hours. Moreover, Memphis is one of only three cities with five Class I Rail Systems and has the fifth largest inland port, as well as 10 major trucking companies utilizing interstates I-40 and I-55. It’s no wonder that FedEx World Hub makes Memphis its home, and UPS chose it as a major hub. With those constants in place, the most notable recent change is the expansion of the submarkets, and how they compete for the warehouse and distribution business. In the past, when …

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Strong job growth in the second half of 2016, robust tenant absorption of new apartment supply and falling vacancies throughout the Indianapolis metro area supported a markedly improved multifamily marketplace by the end of the year. This year, steady employment gains and rising home prices will continue to bolster apartment property performance metrowide. In the first half of 2016, hiring was sluggish due to a lack of available workers, but ramped up at midyear. By year’s end, area employers increased employee headcounts by 25,300, a 2.5 percent increase overall. Although employment gains were widespread, the education and health services sector led job creation followed by construction. With the opening of Cummins Inc.’s new distribution headquarters and tech sector growth most notably Salesforce’s significant expansion in the area hiring this year is expected to remain stable. The forecast calls for employers to add 20,000 new workers to payrolls this year, which will further elevate demand for multifamily rentals. Construction ramps up Developers delivered 2,500 rental units to the marketplace last year, the second largest annual supply increase in nine years, but tenants readily absorbed the new supply. Nearly half of the submarkets in the metro area received new supply in 2016, …

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With city-like, apartment-rental living back in vogue, New Jersey — from its urban centers to its suburban bedroom communities — is transitioning to more walkable, transit-focused neighborhoods. From Northern, Central and Southern Jersey’s green, well-manicured garden-apartment courtyards to the sleek Class A high-rises peppering Hudson County’s Gold Coast, multifamily living and investment are catalysts for sustained statewide economic and population growth. The groundwork for this trend — and the ensuing surge in construction expected to peak this year — was established a few years back with the emergence of a state-incentivized transit village designation program. While this movement started in 1999 as a means to revitalize transit-friendly communities through mixed-use development, municipal leaders have only begun to embrace and leverage this type of development and private investment long associated with urban centers. Today, New Jersey has 32 state-­designated transit villages and a multitude of emerging transit centers. Early designees include Pleasantville (Atlantic County), Journal Square/Jersey City, Morristown, South Amboy, South Orange, Rahway, Cranford and Matawan. Most recently, they have been joined by relative newcomers like East Orange, Summit, Plainfield, Irvington, Park Ridge and Hackensack as well as budding hubs such as Harrison. One example of how multifamily investment is leveraging …

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