Market Reports

Three major storylines are playing out in Baltimore, the northern part of the one-two city punch that combines for more than 9 million people and forms the fourth-largest metropolitan region of the country. These three sub-plots each contribute to the larger vernacular of the Charm City story. The activity in the office sector is occurring against the backdrop of a robust warehouse/industrial market, as national companies are recognizing the attractiveness of the Port of Baltimore and access to the Eastern Seaboard. Baltimore is also enjoying the healthiest retail environments seen in years, highlighted by the construction of new large-scale shopping centers to service Millennials and empty-nesters moving downtown. 1. Shifting Blocks of Space Two separate 200,000-square-foot blocks of prime office space are moving to the now-under-construction Harbor Point overlooking Baltimore’s Inner Harbor, the development centerpiece of the Constellation Energy Group merger with Exelon Corp. Upon completion, the former industrial brownfield site will feature more than 1.6 million square feet of commercial office space. Add in a separate 200,000-square-foot move by the Baltimore headquarters of M&T Bank from 25 S. Charles St. (with sources indicating the company may back-fill the space themselves) and you have pretty large shoes to fill in …

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It is a great time to be a multifamily owner in San Diego. Vacancies are at the low rate of 4.1 percent for the county, while rent growth is at its highest level since 2011. Cap rates and interest rates are still at record lows, and we are slowly seeing an increase in inventory as owners realize values are higher than ever. We will soon see a rise in interest rates, and can expect a reduction in values as the cash-on-cash returns are reduced. For every 100 basis points of increase in rates, we may see up to a 6.7 percent reduction in value. Rental market performance, according to the San Diego County Apartment Association, has weighted averages in San Diego up to: $974: Studios $1,301: one-bedroom $1,609: two -bedrooms $1,943: three -bedrooms South Bay has the highest vacancies at 5.1 percent, while North County has the lowest at 3.1 percent. Chase, one of the largest lenders in San Diego, is expecting rent growth of 35 percent over the next five years. This news is encouraging as the market has been flat in San Diego for years. There were 139 apartment buildings with 50 units or less that sold in …

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Union Wharf Apartments Baltimore

The transformation of downtown Baltimore into a contemporary world-class city began nearly two decades ago, but over the past few years it has irrefutably evolved into a true 24/7 city and a top-tier housing market that is nationally recognized by the investment community. An influx of commercial investment drove job growth, which inevitably boosted downtown Baltimore’s daytime population. But what is remarkable is how many of these individuals also decided to become city residents. The number of degree-holding young people living in downtown Baltimore increased by 92 percent between 2000 and 2010, exceeding the pace of 20-something magnet cities like New York and Boston. Whether it was the chicken or the egg, this new group of residents favored a rental urban lifestyle, and downtown Baltimore delivered nearly 4,700 new apartments between 2000 and 2010. Ambitious developers John Paterakis and Michael S. Beatty paved the way in the late 1990s with the development of Harbor East, which congregates upscale retailers, Class A office space and luxury rental apartments. Its immediate success filled a niche in the market and spurred growth in other communities around the Inner Harbor, including the Ritz-Carlton. As this wave of development continued throughout the 2000s, slowly but …

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The San Diego retail market had another positive quarter, which built on the strength of the local economy. Strong job growth and low unemployment led to positive net absorption and a spike in sales activities. The unemployment rate decreased across the board. San Diego posted a 4.9 percent rate, a post-recession low for overall unemployment. This is the first time San Diego unemployment has been sub-5 percent since the beginning of 2008. Local San Diego retail employment has been steadily increasing by 2.4 percent over the past five years, according to CBRE Econometric Advisors. Annual growth for the next five years, however, is expected to be relatively flat. Despite the lack of space, there have been a few construction deliveries. Most of the current retail construction in San Diego is from mixed-use development and property renovations. Westfield plans to spend $500 million to expand its center at UTC. It will also spend $300 million in Carlsbad where it plans intends to transform an indoor mall into an open-air center. Regional malls are leading the trend, and smaller centers like Flower Hill Promenade and Del Mar Heights Town Center are keeping up with them. One of the most significant signings this …

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Chattanooga Choo Choo

Chattanooga is situated at a U-turn of the Tennessee River amidst forests and mountains, hence the community’s nickname, Scenic City. Two of Chattanooga’s largest employers are Volkswagen, which has a plant here, and Amazon, which runs a distribution center in the city. Insurance firm Unum Group, a Fortune 500 Company founded in 1848, is headquartered here and is one of the larger occupiers of downtown office space. Long-known for its natural resources and as a tourism destination, Chattanooga is experiencing a real estate boom fueled by urbanization trends and its proximity to Atlanta (2 hours south) and Nashville (1.5 hours northwest), as well as its growing recognition as one of the South’s top tourism and entertainment venues. Key to the urban renewal is the conversion of dozens of properties — mostly from office uses to residential, retail or hotel uses. The combination of the Great Recession and a 2009 move by BlueCross BlueShield into a new $229 million downtown facility has led to the relatively high vacancy rate of 17.5 percent that persisted up until early 2014. Most of the 600,000 square feet of facilities vacated by BlueCross BlueShield were not suitable for multi-tenanted office use and the spaces would …

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El Paso is a thriving community with active investments across the area ranging from redevelopment of its downtown to new infrastructure across the city. Notable for being the safest city in the Unites States, El Paso is the sixth largest city in Texas and a vital part of one of the largest borderplex metropolitan economies in the world. The city is the focal point of more than $88 billion of the $530 billion annual trade between the United States and its third largest trading partner, Mexico. But trade isn’t the only industry thriving in El Paso, other sectors such as education and healthcare continue on a strong path forward given stable population growth and a significant military base. The City of El Paso has a population just over 679,000. Its metropolitan statistical area, composed of El Paso County and the more recently added Hudspeth County, is home to over 837,000 individuals. The area is projected to grow to nearly 863,000 residents by 2016. Historically, El Paso is among the fastest-growing metropolitan areas in the nation with an average growth per decade of 21 percent from 1960 to 2010. According to a recent report by the UTEP Border Region Modeling Project, …

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Surging rental demand for apartments in metro Kansas City during the first six months of 2015 supported a sharp rise in real estate fundamentals following a lackluster second half of 2014. Renters absorbed 2,510 apartments during the first half of this year, surpassing the 1,810 apartments completed during the same period a year ago. With leasing activity exceeding deliveries so far this year, the overall vacancy rate fell 60 basis points to 5 percent by the end of June. The decline followed a spike in vacancy and negative absorption in the fourth quarter of 2014. The recent resurgence in leasing resulted in the vacancy rate in June matching the 5 percent rate one year ago. Supply-side pressure was most noticeable in the Class A apartment segment, which po sted an increase of 60 basis points in the vacancy rate year-over-year to reach 4.2 percent in June. Even with the increase, the vacancy rate was tightest among top-tier apartments, while Class C vacancy tightened 20 basis points during the same period to settle at 5.3 percent in June. A Landlord’s Market As a result of Kansas City’s apartment vacancy rate tightening during the first half of this year, operators were able …

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San Diego’s industrial market is on pace to be a record-setting year, as of the end of the second quarter. Countywide vacancy has plummeted to 5.76 percent due to another quarter of strong leasing and owner/user activity. The majority of San Diego’s industrial absorption has occurred on the fringes of the county. The southernmost submarket where this is occurring is Otay Mesa. This market has been a historical laggard, but has recently witnessed a flurry of leasing activity during the first half of 2015. The drivers for Otay Mesa’s demand are high-quality, large blocks of space, proximity for companies with maquiladora operations in Mexico and companies migrating out of expensive central submarkets in search of value. There is some speculative industrial development breaking ground in the county for the first time in almost 10 years. First Industrial Realty Trust and McDonald Property Group has tilted walls on First Park @ Ocean Ranch in Oceanside. The three-building, 237,000-square-foot project has received strong preleasing activity from users that like the northern San Diego location as a launching point to serve San Diego, Orange County, Riverside County and Los Angeles. Most importantly new projects like First Park offers state-of-the-art features tenants are looking …

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As Charlotte’s job growth has returned, so has traffic into Uptown during rush hour, a new apartment project on every corner, healthy single-family demand and a food fight. Currently there is an all-out war for grocery market share between behemoths Harris Teeter, Publix and Walmart Neighborhood Market, all adding stores at a record rate, while Whole Foods Market continues to expand within the market on a measured basis. Newcomers Sprouts Farmers Market and Lidl, a German-based supermarket grocer offering discount items, are set to make market entries between 2016 to 2018, with Food Lion planning to refurbish a number of their stores in the market. Pappas Properties has begun construction on a Harris Teeter at Berewick and Raley Miller in a joint venture with Levine Properties, and has filed a rezoning petition to add another Harris Teeter at the corner of Fairview and Providence. Harris Teeter has recently added a store in Cornelius, as has Publix. Publix has recently opened a new store in the booming South End submarket located along the transit line on South Boulevard and has won zoning approval for a store to be constructed at Cotswold. A grocer is also rumored to be scouting a redevelopment …

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Cleveland will host the Republican National Convention in July 2016. In response, hospitality firms have steadily expanded payrolls with the addition of 9,200 workers, the biggest relative gain among all employment sectors. The overall labor force will expand 1.6 percent this year, or by 16,500 new workers. Thousands of these newly employed workers are seeking rental housing, particularly in the urban core where housing prices are much higher than the metro average. In addition, the urban core’s transformation to a 24-hour city has created its own momentum. Demand Exceeds Supply High net absorption outpaced construction during the past four quarters, putting downward pressure on vacancy. Last year, average vacancy dropped 160 basis points as tenants absorbed more than 3,400 units. In the last 12-month period ending in June, nearly every Cleveland submarket posted a drop in vacancy. Net absorption is expected to end the year more than 40 percent higher, with vacancy projected to slide 50 basis points to 3.4 percent, one of the lowest levels in the country. Builders have responded by expanding the project pipeline. More than 1,700 rental units have already come on line during the past year. However, compared with almost any other major metro in the country, this is just a drop in the bucket. …

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