The Atlanta industrial market is in the beginning stages of its third growth cycle since 1990. Vacancy has declined over the past 18 quarters, and asking rates have seen a positive trend over the same time period, increasing by 14.9 percent. These improving metrics should come as no surprise to those familiar with the history of Atlanta’s industrial market. Although the Atlanta metro is the nation’s ninth-largest metropolitan area, its industrial market represents the fourth-largest by volume. Total vacant space in the market has fallen to a 13-year low 8.7 percent, meaning the metro is once again poised for industrial expansion. Cycles One, Two and Three Atlanta’s growth cycle in the 1990s lasted just under 8 years, from 1994 until 2002, where 135 million square feet of new product was added to the market. That constitutes almost a quarter of the total 549 million square feet in the metro today. Total vacancy had fallen to 9.2 percent in the middle of 1994 and asking rates hit what was then an all-time high of $3.26 per square foot. These factors triggered a 40 percent rise in construction volume. As this cycle closed in 2001, vacancy rose back above 10 percent in …
Momentum in Northern New Jersey’s multifamily market continues unabated, with investors aggressively pursuing opportunities, and developers actively launching projects along the Hudson River Gold Coast and west along transit lines. Heading into the heart of 2015, we are seeing demand drive up sales volume and values, and push cap rates down to historically low levels. Current investment velocity follows a strong 2014 capital markets performance. Last year, $1.3 billion in multifamily sales (including transactions of $10 million or more) marked the highest volume since 2007, and compares to approximately $900 million annually in both 2012 and 2013. For context, the market saw only $169 million in annual trades during the depth of the recession in 2009. The “buy” side today is dominated by institutional advisors, particularly for Class A apartment communities. Additionally, we are seeing privately held firms and raised funds making big splashes with value-add and Class B product. Northern New Jersey’s active sellers include developers and private owners looking to take advantage of valuations that have appreciated to historically high levels, as well as institutions that are cycling assets at the end of their traditionally long-term investment horizons. Additionally, multifamily cap rates have dropped consistently in Northern New …
A booming Denver economy has strengthened the local real estate market, creating strong demand across all property sectors, including multifamily, housing, office and retail. The wealth effect stemming from robust employment and rising home values will specifically drive retail sales in the Denver metro this year. A thriving retail market will attract new tenants to the metro, and facilitate healthy rent growth. Employers will continue to expand in the metro, pushing total employment to a new high and drawing additional residents to the metro. Hiring will expand 3.3 percent this year as employers are expected to add 45,000 total workers to payrolls. Metro Denver has also attracted high-wage earners. For instance, Lockheed unveiled plans to add 850 high-paying jobs at its Jefferson County facility over the next few years. Meanwhile, rising housing demand has lifted the median price of an existing home nearly 60 percent over the past six years. This has caused Denver to become one of the most expensive non-coastal housing markets in the nation. High home values will positively affect how homeowners feel about their financial situation, encouraging retail spending. Retail construction will slow this year as many developers focus on redevelopment projects like the Southwest Plaza …
Atlanta is experiencing an influx of human capital, corporate relocations and development of distribution networks that are combining to create a robust expansionary cycle in our real estate markets. One of the most positive elements of this expansion is that it appears the underlying structure of the growth is creating stability for our city and state well into the future. It is the structure of the growth that will be a long-term difference maker. CNBC annually conducts a study and ranks the top states for doing business. These rankings are a result of assessing various criteria, including but not limited to the cost of doing business, workforce quality, access to capital and business friendliness. CNBC’s results in 2014 were very telling. Four of the top 10 states are located in the south. The South’s top 10 finalists in CNBC’s study were Georgia (1), Texas (2), North Carolina (5) and Virginia (8). In addition to these empirical studies, major corporations are voting as well. The verdict is that many organizations are choosing to relocate corporate headquarters to Atlanta. Recently, marquee brands such as Mercedes-Benz USA and State Farm all have made plans to open or expand major corporate centers in our …
Dallas/Fort Worth has experienced unprecedented growth over the past few years, and we have all the fundamentals in place to continue this growth. Since 2005, we have added more than 600,000 jobs to the region. That’s a whopping increase of 21 percent! The current outlook is for growth to continue at these levels. In fact, by 2030 population in our region is expected to hit 9 million, an increase of 2.1 million new residents. From a real estate perspective, these fundamentals will fuel demand across all property types for the foreseeable future. More importantly, DFW has evolved into one of the most balanced economies in the U.S. and has created the “perfect storm” for our continued, steady growth. In addition to our central location, key drivers include our diverse employment base, deep roots in technology, low cost of doing business, pro-growth philosophy and affordable housing. For a comparison to the rest of the country, office absorption in Dallas has paced ahead of most U.S. markets in the last few years. In the first quarter of 2015, Dallas made up almost 30 percent of the national net absorption among the 50 largest U.S. markets JLL tracks. While a large proportion of …
New York City multifamily has historically been a darling of the real estate industry — and for good reason. It is arguably the most sought-after investment product type within commercial real estate investment’s most targeted city. It is the perfect demographic storm on the demand side: two-thirds of the population rent versus own; the population is arguably the best educated and includes the highest income generators in the nation; and the market continues to exhibit vast growth in household creation and population. Not to mention, the supply side is both geographically and politically constrained. These limitations are further exacerbated by very high costs to build. However, even with the dual push of supply and demand continuing to be in investors’ favor citywide, there are some areas that are softening. Two areas that seem to be softening are luxury condominiums in Manhattan and rental product in Long Island City (Queens) and the downtown Brooklyn area. Manhattan Luxury Condo Sales Slowing Manhattan is often a trendsetter that is months and years ahead of the rest of the country when it comes to real estate trends, and the return of the luxury condominium market is a prime example of this. Some 2,500 units were …
Multifamily housing is coming of age in New Mexico, and the Millennial generation is spurring the growth. The old adage of “location, location, location” is ever present as the placement of a property in relation to cultural, educational, entertainment and natural amenities becomes a major factor in the value of the property. The ability to walk and bike to social amenities like restaurants, theaters and schools is, and will continue to be, very high on the list of importance for members of this generation in New Mexico. There is not only a distinguishable difference in occupancy rates for units scoring high on Millennial’s wish lists, but the income for these units is between 20 percent and 24 percent higher than those with lower scores. While newly constructed and refurbished multi-housing units often appeal to Millennials, all of New Mexico is experiencing high occupancy rates throughout the multifamily market. This push on availability is fueling an environment that will continue to encourage increasing rents and new construction. Though the sale of multifamily properties was deeply affected by the recession, a market shift in 2013 has allowed the multifamily market to regain its footing with a two- to three-times increase in sales …
In March 2012 The El Paso City Council unanimously adopted Plan El Paso, a comprehensive development plan based on the principles of green and smart growth. Smart Code, which is based on these same princples, was largely chosen to combat sprawl, large land use and carbon pollution. After numerous citywide meetings with citizens, government entities, nonprofit groups and business leaders, the plan moved forward. Smart Code emphasizes new urbanism, density, walkability, mixed-use development and open space with access to public transit. Developers have the choice in most instances to pick the traditional zoning code or opt for Smart Code. The Smart Code offers potential Chapter 380 economic incentives with city council approval. Sales, use and property tax abatements are available for qualified projects. Higher densities and higher property values through Smart Code generate greater taxes, which justify the rebates. Some developers say project costs are about 30 percent higher under Smart Code when compared to the traditional code. Smart Code typically makes the most sense for infill development in higher-income areas. Prior to the economic downturn of 2008, a large mixed-use development in northeast El Paso was slated to become the first project in the city to implement elements of …
A trifecta shaped by six years of a bull market, historically low interest rates and oil around $50 a barrel is benefitting one business sector arguably more than any other industry in the United States: automotive. Researcher AutoData Corp. estimates that, seasonally adjusted, the annual vehicle sales rate topped 17.1 million in March of this year, indicating the industry is on pace to have its best year in more than a decade. Further, the industry’s 5.6 percent sales increase in the first quarter has come entirely on gains of sales of trucks and sport-utility vehicles, two categories that do well when gas prices are low. Ford Motor Co. is forecasting that between 17 million and 17.5 million light vehicles — from all automakers — will be sold in the United States this year. The estimate is similar to competitor estimates. If it comes to pass, 2015 would be the best year for unit sales since 2006. Approximately 16.5 million cars and light trucks were sold nationally in 2014, according to AutoData. Consequently, it has been shocking to see how quickly so many vacant Detroit industrial buildings have been occupied in such a short period of time. Vacancy Rates Tumble The …
The industrial market had a notable year in 2014. Vacancy declined 270 basis points from the first quarter of 2014 where nearly 1 million square feet of space was absorbed. It has been more than seven years since absorption has registered similar figures. The primary factor driving last year’s success was a handful of large deals with more than 50,000 square feet. The supply of larger, quality spaces was steadily leased up throughout the year. These accounted for 54 percent, or 522,000 square feet, of absorbed space. Market velocity slowed down during the fourth quarter, driven by a lack of quality inventory. Absorption registered a positive 103,000 square feet, and was the lowest quarterly level of 2014. The centrally located North I-25 submarket outshined all other submarkets. In the biggest deal of the quarter, Flagship Foods occupied nearly 79,000 square feet of space in the North I-25 submarket. There were also nine other spaces occupied in this submarket that contributed another 60,000 square feet of absorption. A developing concern for 2015 is the significant amount of new available space being brought to market. Although still occupied, a total of 244,000 square feet of new space was added to the inventory …