Market Reports

HistoricalComparison

Today’s Kansas City apartment fundamentals resemble the height of the 2007 market as jobs, deliveries, building permits, occupancy and rents are up. The availability of financing for developers and investors, along with the temperate economic recovery, portends further operational strength and investment activity in the near term. Job growth in the metro area this year has been positive. The end of the first quarter saw a full rebound of the job losses that occurred in late 2013. Through the first half of 2014, total payroll employment expanded by 5,200 jobs, an increase of 0.5 percent compared with the end of 2013. The local unemployment rate at the end of the second quarter of 2014 was 6.3 percent. Some 4,200 additional new jobs are projected for the second half of 2014, which would bring the area nonfarm job count to only 1,800 under its 2007 high of 1,018,300. Supply and Demand Apartment developers are expected to deliver new product in time to meet the demand created by the new jobs. By year’s end, construction is scheduled to be completed on 3,750 new apartments for multifamily properties of 100 or more units. New construction has been ramping up since the first quarter …

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We are seeing several trends emerge in the Los Angeles multifamily development sector as we move into the second half of 2014. These trends are influenced by several factors, including job growth, local economy and public infrastructure. The unemployment rate in Los Angeles County has continued to tick downward with true job growth across all sectors, which, in return, has had a direct influence on multifamily project starts. Job growth has been exponential in certain markets, including West Los Angeles, Downtown Los Angeles and Tri-Cities (Glendale, Burbank and Pasadena), creating natural household formations to accommodate the swell of rental demand. Job growth, along with the creation of a comprehensive public transportation system, will continue to drive multifamily development and construction in a way the City of Los Angeles has never seen before. The construction pipeline has swelled to 14,500 rental units, including 12,200 market-rate units. At the end of the first quarter, nearly 29,000 rentals were planned in the county, which is roughly 50 percent higher than the number of units on the drawing board one year ago. With the subway expansion, areas of town that were once deemed undesirable by developers and residents are now being sought after in …

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The trends in Louisville are typical of a market rebounding. According to CBRE Research, the Louisville market is experiencing rent growth, vacancy declines, construction increases and more speculative product hitting the city. Leasing volume is increasing steadily, and investment sales are peaking as well. The Louisville industrial market remains tight even with several recent construction completions. With more than 100 million square feet of industrial space in the area, Louisville is a major player in the Eastern United States distribution market. Despite several lease and sale transactions consummating in the second quarter of 2014, market vacancy increased slightly to 4 percent, which reflects the fact that several large speculative buildings came on line during the period offsetting otherwise net positive absorption. As expected, with existing industrial inventory levels at an all-time low and new building deliveries coming on line and more on the horizon, market vacancies rose to 3.9 percent in the first quarter of 2014, ending a streak of 13 consecutive quarters of declining vacancy. Louisville remains an extremely tight market, even considering the increase in the vacancy rate. In addition, compared to the percentage of total market size in neighboring cities like Columbus, Cincinnati, Indianapolis, Nashville and Memphis, …

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To say that 2014 has been filled with great excitement for Cleveland would be an understatement. In early July, the Republican National Committee selected Cleveland as the host city for its 2016 convention. That same month, NBA star LeBron James announced his intent to return to his hometown Cavaliers. Beyond those splashy headlines, during the first half of the year several real estate projects were announced. The planned projects combined with those already under construction or completed since 2010 represent $5.5 billion in public and private investment in downtown Cleveland. Apartment Building Boom One of the most significant stories in Cleveland is that the residential boom downtown continues to gain momentum. The overall occupancy rate in the apartment sector within the CBD rose from 94.5 percent in the first quarter of 2014 to just over 98 percent at mid-year, according to a recent study released by the Downtown Cleveland Alliance. As a result, new projects continue to pile up in an effort to meet the ever-increasing demand. In addition to the 1,000-plus rental units currently under construction, there are now more than 1,100 units in various planning stages. Projects announced since the first of the year include The Standard Building …

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Accessibility, amenities and coworking spaces are driving the suburban and urban real estate markets in Philadelphia. While suburban office tenants prefer to have access to transit and amenities, Center City office tenants seek experiences and collaboration with new coworkers. Suburban Perspective The Philadelphia suburban market consists of 59.4 million square feet comprising 13 distinct submarkets. The majority of this inventory consists of dated commodity office space, mostly built prior to 1990. With an overall vacancy rate of 20.8 percent and average asking rents of $24.90 per square foot, the Philadelphia suburban market has been less dynamic than its Center City counterpart. Although many older properties suffer from functional obsolescence, well-maintained assets with access to major roadways/public transit and amenities outperform the market average. For example, the Radnor, Conshohocken and Bala Cynwyd submarkets remain the three strongest submarkets in the region. Vacancy rates in these markets range from 2 to 14 percent, with average asking rents ranging from $30.75 to $37.00 per square foot. All three of these submarkets have immediate access to major roadways, public transit and amenities. Suburban office developers have taken note of the strong fundamentals in these areas as well as Center City Philadelphia. They have created …

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The economic recovery has flipped Louisville’s office market. Historically, the central business district (CBD) has lower vacancy and higher leasing rates than the suburban office market, while new development and low barriers to entry generally kept vacancy higher in the suburbs. Now, suburban vacancy rates rest below the CBD’s, especially for Class A product. Even as speculative development returns to the suburbs, the submarket’s hot streak shows no signs of abating, and the downtown submarket has plenty of positive momentum as well. Suburban Class A vacancy was 8.4 percent at mid-year, with average asking rates in the $20 to $22 per square foot range, or higher in top-tier new office developments. The suburban office market has been quite active, but Class A and B vacancies haven’t materially changed this year due to a spate of renewals and net moves from one building to another. Still, we expect a noteworthy fourth quarter as demand is perhaps as strong as it’s ever been, and owners remain aggressive, in many cases offering three months free rent and turnkey tenant improvements with long-term deals. Lack of available large blocks of space could lead to build-to-suit activity, too. There are virtually no available blocks of …

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It’s a trend that’s happening across the country. Millennials are fleeing the suburbs of their childhood and choosing to work and live in the urban areas of every major American city. But there’s a unique twist to this story in Kansas City. While Millennials are moving downtown in droves, many have a reverse commute. Most Fortune 500 companies have remained in the suburbs after their flight from downtown beginning in the 1970s. In addition, several large companies have jumped the state line due to favorable tax incentives. In the second quarter, the downtown office vacancy rate stood at an unhealthy 29.9 percent. Only one office submarket posted a higher vacancy rate. Meanwhile, the leading submarket, South Johnson County, recorded a 12.8 percent vacancy rate. It’s been difficult for older office buildings with smaller floor plates of 10,000 to 15,000 square feet to compete as companies look for larger floor plates of 25,000 to 30,000 square feet. Companies are also finding that surface parking in the suburbs is more economical. Building Conversion Wave The good news is that a slow reversal in both the multifamily and office markets is occurring as older and historic office buildings are adapting to the demands …

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While the industrial recovery in the Phoenix area has been slow, market indicators show signs of steady improvement. Average rental rates for the Phoenix metro industrial market have remained consistent, hovering around $0.52 per square foot for the past year. In the Southwest Valley, however, which constitutes almost one-third of the entire valley’s industrial space, average rental rates are much lower at $0.36 per square foot. Lease rates at Sky Harbor Airport are averaging about $0.59 per square foot, and $0.66 per square foot in the Southeast Valley. The highest average rental rates are predictably seen in the Northeast Valley, which reported an average of $0.85 per square foot. More than 2.9 million square feet was leased in the second quarter, representing 593 transactions. Leases remain steady compared to the first quarter of this year, but the rate will likely fall short of 2013 when 16.7 million square feet was leased. Vacancy rates continue to fall after the spike seen last year. The second quarter of 2014 reported a 12.6 percent vacancy, down from the high of 13.2 percent in the third quarter of 2013. While a positive indicator, vacancy rates in the industrial sector swing on such a pendulum …

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Louisville is riding a wave of momentum after hosting its third PGA Championship at Valhalla Golf Club in August. In addition, the $2.5 billion Louisville-Southern Indiana Ohio River bridge projects are under construction and scheduled to open in 2016. This project adds two new bridges, an east end bridge connecting I-265 in Kentucky with I-265 in Indiana, and a second bridge located downtown as part of improvements to I-65. These significant infrastructure improvements are a game changer in the fact that they will improve accessibility to new retail trade areas such as southern Indiana and northeast Louisville. In anticipation of the Kentucky International Convention Center being dramatically expanded and remodeled, Louisville has five hotels under construction or planned for downtown. Omni Hotels & Resorts will build its first property in Kentucky in Louisville, a 600-room convention hotel at Third and Liberty streets. Estimated to open no later than 2017, the Omni will be adjacent to 200 apartments, a grocery store and retail shops. The project is a public-private partnership between Omni, Cordish Cos., metro government and the state of Kentucky. REI Real Estate Services and Poe Cos. are developing a 172-room Aloft Hotel located in the central business district at …

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It’s been a remarkable 18-month run in the Kansas City industrial market. Developers are being rewarded for their patience and long-term land positions, and larger tenants finally have several options from which to choose among Class-A distribution facilities. In January 2013, the vacancy rate in the Kansas City industrial market was a tight 6 percent, with barely any product available for users searching for modern distribution space of 200,000 square feet or more. At that time, I made some predictions about new construction, vacancy and absorption. Let’s review what happened. Market Drivers Kansas City recorded more than 3.5 million square feet of positive absorption in 2013 alone, adding another 800,000 square feet during the first two quarters of 2014. This demand was driven in large part by the automobile suppliers, online retailers and by governmental agencies. At mid-year, the vacancy rate for Kansas City warehouse product had fallen to 5.6 percent, well below the national average of 7.3 percent. Average lease rates have moved up to pre-recession levels, as regional distributors and third-party logistics companies attempt to secure large blocks of space for their national footprints. In 2013, the market delivered 2.4 million square feet of new industrial product, with …

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