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IndustrialKentuckyMarket ReportsSoutheastSoutheast Market Reports

Louisville’s Industrial Market Is Entering ‘Slow-Paced Cooldown’ Period of Market Cycle

by John Nelson

The Louisville industrial market has simmered at a slow and steady pace during 2024. Continued uncertainty with debt markets, inflation and the upcoming elections have placed developers on the sidelines, and occupiers in a holding pattern.  Despite how the market feels today, Louisville remains poised for a comeback. A brief overview shows how and why the Louisville market is in the position it is today, and what to expect beyond 2024.  The past five years reveal a compelling story, one that developers, occupiers and investors alike have come to understand as they seek to develop, lease or own real estate in the Derby City. Driving much of this development and occupier activity in Louisville is the presence of the UPS Worldport, two Ford manufacturing plants, Haier’s GE Appliance Park and other manufacturers that keep suppliers, third-party logistics firms and e-commerce companies jockeying for space.  Louisville’s central location on the I-65 corridor and proximity to two-thirds of the U.S. population are also key reasons the market continues to grow as a hub for logistics, e-commerce and manufacturing. The market saw tremendous growth over the past five years, assisted by the space grab during COVID.  Since 2019 bulk inventory experienced growth of …

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CaliforniaMarket ReportsMultifamilyWesternWestern Market Reports

Shifting Generations Redefine the Bay Area’s Multifamily Market

by Jeff Shaw

— By Rachel Ivers, senior analyst, multifamily investment sales team, and Bryan Danforth and Matt Thomson, senior vice presidents, Compass Commercial — The multifamily investment sales market in the San Francisco Bay Area is undergoing a noticeable transformation that’s driven by economic pressures and evolving investor strategies. Unlike in previous years — where sellers might list properties to capitalize on market highs or interest rate lows — the current environment is seeing fewer sales motivated by profit.  Many sellers today are cashing out due to expiring fixed interest rates or selling for personal reasons rather than purely financial motivations. This includes circumstances such as inheritance, divorce or retirement. With the Baby Boomer generation, currently aged 60 to 78 and reaching retirement age in larger numbers, we’re beginning to see the front end of significant changes in property ownership. This demographic shift is likely to drive a substantial increase in inheritance sales in the near future as life expectancy hovers around 77.5 years.  A significant factor driving this shift is the belief among many investors that the market has peaked. Concerns about stricter rent control measures, which continue to appear on ballots, are prompting these investors to seek opportunities elsewhere. Markets …

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Market ReportsMidwestMidwest Market ReportsMissouriRetail

Record-Low Vacancy, Rent Growth Define St. Louis Retail Market

by Kristin Harlow

By Grant Mechlin, Sansone Group The St. Louis retail market showed impressive resilience in the second quarter of 2024, thanks to strong consumer spending and growing demand across various sectors. Despite challenges such as higher borrowing costs and persistent inflation, the market tightened considerably, with availability dropping to a record low 4.8 percent and well below the five-year average, according to CoStar. This strong absorption has persisted for nine consecutive quarters, highlighting the market’s ongoing strength. A major factor behind this is the limited new supply — only 770,000 square feet of retail space was added in the past year, with nearly all of it quickly absorbed, according to CoStar.  This scarcity has fueled development, especially in areas like quick-service restaurants, banks and discount retailers, as tenants are forced to explore new construction as the only viable option to combat a lack of supply in the market. Meanwhile, the overall prices of goods and services in the St. Louis area saw a 3.4 percent rise over the past year, according to the Consumer Price Index.  While food costs came down slightly, there was a 5.4 percent increase in energy costs and 4.3 percent for all other consumer expenditures.   Despite …

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Conference CoverageMarket ReportsRetailTexasTexas Market Reports

InterFace Panel: Unanchored Strip Centers Make Good Opportunities for Retail Developers in Today’s Market

by Taylor Williams

By Taylor Williams DALLAS — It’s an exceptionally challenging time to be developing retail space in the metroplex. Pick your poison: Interest rates that have tripled in two years, restricted proceeds from lenders, longer entitlement and permitting times, limited land for new projects. Between all these barriers to growth, the deck is seemingly stacked against brick-and-mortar retail developers these days, despite the fact that in Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW), occupancy is very high and population growth shows little sign of slowing. Of course, each of those factors is exacerbated with large-scale developments. More land and rentable square footage require the raising of more debt and equity, which translates to heftier interest and dividend payments, respectively. If the site is an assemblage, then predevelopment is more time-consuming, and with the push outward to new suburban paths of growth, those sites may not already be zoned for retail. If rents aren’t trending upward, those factors alone can kill a project in its infancy. Editor’s note: InterFace Conference Group, a division of France Media Inc., produces networking and educational conferences for commercial real estate executives. To sign up for email announcements about specific events, visit www.interfaceconferencegroup.com/subscribe. For all these reasons, some owner-operators see opportunity in building smaller …

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FloridaMarket ReportsMultifamilySoutheastSoutheast Market Reports

Orlando Multifamily Makes a Comeback as Market Conditions Improve

by John Nelson

Orlando’s multifamily market has experienced softened conditions lately due to a record amount of new supply being built, as well as economic challenges impacting commercial real estate as a whole. Yet, green shoots have emerged as insurance costs continue to ease and interest rates remain steady with downward pressure. Both overall sentiment and renter demand have steadily improved as well.  Properties in the multifamily space seeing the most interest these days are those that are high-quality and well-located. Two key multifamily sale transactions that occurred in the second quarter of 2024 were in the Southwest Orlando submarket. This includes the 424-unit Osprey Links at Hunter’s Creek property that sold for $100.6 million, which marked Orlando’s largest multifamily sale this year, and the 296-unit Sonceto Apartments property that sold for $71 million.  Investors are flooding back into the market with increasingly more aggressive offers and heightened competition as a result of the still limited available multifamily inventory and notion that supply levels have peaked.  However, additional supply will still enter the market in the years to come as developers maintain a positive outlook on Orlando with just over 2,000 units across six buildings delivered by the end of the second quarter …

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CaliforniaIndustrialMarket ReportsWesternWestern Market Reports

NorCal Industrial Markets Show Signs of Optimism Despite Increased Vacancy

by Jeff Shaw

— By David Nelson, regional president of brokerage for Northern California and Nevada, Kidder Mathews — After record figures across most U.S. industrial markets in 2021 and 2022, key fundamentals cooled in 2023 and have been recalibrating ever since. Total net absorption has been negative in recent quarters, sublease space is on the rise, vacancy and availability rates have been steadily inching up, and average asking lease rates are relatively flat. Furthermore, the recent surge in development activity due to the rise in ecommerce penetration has been slowly drying up with construction starts dropping by more than 60 percent in 2023 and 2024.  Core industrial markets in the Bay Area experienced notable increases in both vacancy and availability. Silicon Valley vacancy rose from between 1.5 percent and 2.5 percent last year to 3 percent and 4 percent in 2024. Meanwhile, East Bay rose from 3.5 percent and 4 percent in 2023 to 5.5 percent and 6.5 percent in second-quarter 2024.  During the first half of the year, an increase in sublease space has been a major contributor to the higher rates. They have increased from the pre-COVID average of 9 percent of total available space to 19 percent at the end …

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IllinoisIndustrialMarket ReportsMidwestMidwest Market ReportsMissouri

Key Industrial Industry Sectors in St. Louis Region Attract Investment

by Kristin Harlow

By Mary Lamie, Bi-State Development, St. Louis Regional Freightway The St. Louis regional industrial market continues to be a magnet for investment, with significant capital investment dollars flowing into four target industry sectors that remain key drivers of the bi-state economy. These sectors include metals, advanced manufacturing, food and AgTech, and chemicals. They are legacy industry sectors poised for continued innovation, job creation and economic diversification, in part due to the region’s exceptional logistics and transportation assets and established talent pipelines. Metals  The St. Louis metropolitan area ranks second in the United States for mineral and ore exports. With more than $2.9 billion exported in 2022, the figures prove the market is well established for metals manufacturing, processing and shipping. The metals market is expected to grow with nearly 17,000 metals industry workers already in the region, and with copper supplier Wieland making a $500 million investment at its East Alton, Illinois, facility — a move that will retain 800 jobs in the region. “Wieland is committed to a sustainable future and is taking significant steps to modernize its East Alton facility,” says Greg Keown, president of Wieland Rolled Products North America. “This effort solidifies our ability to supply the …

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Affordable HousingMarket ReportsMultifamilyNew YorkNortheastNortheast Market Reports

A Developer’s Thoughts on Recent Changes to New York Laws Regarding Rent-Stabilized Apartments

by Taylor Williams

By Francis Greenburger, founder, chairman & CEO, Time Equities Inc.  The recent changes to New York laws regarding rent-stabilized apartments, included in the 2024 budget legislation and signed into law by Gov. Kathy Hochul, are a step in the right direction. Unfortunately, the step is so small that the effect will be the same as standing still. Much of the initial commentary on 2024 housing law updates was about the so-called “good cause eviction” provisions, which have little to do with eviction but are instead a rebranding of rent control.  In 2019, the legislature made significant changes to the rules governing rent-stabilized apartments. Most legislators who voted for this bill undoubtedly hoped to help New York State meet its affordable housing needs, but the opposite has happened. Thousands of low-cost, rent-stabilized apartments have since become vacant and remain so. Many of these apartments were occupied by tenants or families for 40 years or more. Apartments require capital investments periodically, and expectations for housing change dramatically over long periods. Renovating these units to meet modern standards requires significant investment, often mandated by housing code. Until the changes, building owners were willing to make these investments because they were permitted to increase …

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CaliforniaMarket ReportsRetailWesternWestern Market Reports

San Francisco Retail Market Eyes Continued Growth

by Jeff Shaw

— By Kazuko Morgan, executive vice chair; Alanna Joy Loeffler, managing director, business strategy and development, Americas retail services; and Soany Gunawan, senior research analyst, San Francisco retail research, Cushman & Wakefield — Over the past few years, the headline narrative surrounding San Francisco has focused on store closures, complex governance issues and city challenges. However, with one of the highest U.S. household incomes, a rising population count and the lowest unemployment rate in California, the city remains a beacon of opportunity, innovation and creativity. Within the urban retail market, San Francisco continues to demonstrate resilience and growth with a host of new brands, products and services arriving and thriving.  Retail sales in San Francisco have continued to increase, climbing an estimated 5.7 percent year over year to $37.1 billion in the second quarter of 2024. A multitude of exciting brands and new concepts are opening, flourishing or expanding. INGKA has launched its first-ever food hall, Saluhall, a 23,000-square-foot, plant-forward culinary project connected to the IKEA store at 945 Market Street. This addition not only creates jobs but enriches the community with regular events, highlighting local food vendors while offering fun and educational cooking classes. MillerKnoll’s modern furnishings brand Design Within Reach …

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FloridaMarket ReportsRestaurantRetailSoutheastSoutheast Market Reports

Stakeholders Are Navigating the Evolving Landscape of Retail Leasing in Orlando

by John Nelson

The commercial real estate market, particularly in the retail leasing sector, has been navigating a complex and dynamic landscape over the past few years. With a blend of high demand, limited supply and fluctuating economic variables, the Orlando market presents both challenges and opportunities for developers, landlords and tenants alike. High demand, limited supply One of the most prominent trends in the Orlando retail leasing market is the high demand for quality retail spaces. Retailers are eager to establish and expand their presence in this thriving market, driven by a growing population and increasing consumer spending. However, the inventory of quality existing retail bays is incredibly scarce. This scarcity has created a competitive environment where desirable locations are quickly snapped up, often at premium prices. The supply-demand imbalance has pushed developers to sharpen their pencils and critically analyze the feasibility of new projects. Despite the strong demand, many deals struggle to pencil out due to the high costs of construction materials and labor. These costs have remained elevated, making it challenging for developers to achieve a satisfactory return on investment. As a result, some projects are delayed or shelved, further constraining the supply of retail space. Housing spurs development The …

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