A relatively strong 2012 Columbus office market left us with a few questions that will be answered as we move through 2013 and into 2014. Will rental rates continue to increase incrementally while vacancy and tenant improvement allowances continue to fall? Will we see speculative office development for the first time in five years? There are other compelling questions, which should keep things interesting for the next 12 to 18 months. Will the handful of prospects for large blocks of office space opt for longer lease terms versus recent trends favoring short-term deals? Will Canadian investors continue to perceive Central Ohio as a great place to shop for bargains as the Canadian dollar maintains its strength against the U.S. dollar? Development Picks Up Of course, new construction is currently the big story. Last year, the development community broke ground on more than 1 million square feet of new office space, including two downtown projects near Nationwide Arena. The projects include a 286,000-square-foot building, of which Columbia Gas has pre-leased 208,000 square feet, and a 214,000-square-foot Nationwide Insurance build-to-suit. In the Northeast office submarket, nearly 200,000 square feet of new development is under construction, including a headquarters facility for Bob Evans …
Market Reports
Momentum. In a word, that’s how 2012 ended in the Memphis industrial market. Nearly 3 million square feet of net absorption in the fourth quarter of 2012 helped the market end the year with 2.3 million square feet in positive absorption — setting the tone for what we expect to be a solid 2013. The uptick in fourth quarter net absorption caused vacancy rates to fall to 12.5 percent, down from a high of more than 13 percent. But those vacancy rates can be a bit misleading when you look specifically at Class A space, where vacancy rates are at 10.4 percent. In 2009, industrial development in Memphis totaled only 743,000 square feet in combined under construction and delivered space. Things began improving in 2010 and 2011, with approximately 2 million square feet under construction and/or delivered in both years. In 2012, that number increased by 50 percent to more than 3.1 million square feet. What’s particularly noteworthy about construction activity in 2012 is that it includes speculative development, something the market hasn’t seen in quite a while. IDI has already delivered one spec building totaling 286,000 square feet and has another 870,000-square-foot spec building under construction, both in DeSoto …
Blessed by a favorable location and high quality of life standards, the Danbury, Conn., retail market has grown in the recent 18 months and should continue to expand in 2013. Key among growth indicators are: * Whole Foods is opening its first store in the Danbury market in 2013. * Panera Bread and Petco recently opened second stores in this market. * Toll Brothers is under way with a new 1,200-home community in anticipation of regional population growth and changing demographics. * Danbury has the lowest unemployment rate in the state (7.1 percent seasonally unadjusted as of January 2013, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics). Location and Demographics Danbury is located in northern Fairfield County on the border of New York State and is approximately 50 miles north of New York City. (The Metro train to NYC takes just over an hour.) The population is approximately 80,000. Danbury serves Fairfield and Litchfield County in Connecticut as well as Westchester, Putnam and Dutchess counties in New York. Stamford, Conn.; White Plains, N.Y.; and Hartford, Conn., are each about an hour away. The relatively short commutes to these larger urban hubs entice real estate occupiers for office space and retail tenants …
After several years with virtually no new construction of multifamily homes, the Metro Phoenix market looks to rebound with a pipeline of projects that could result in 5,000 to 7,000 new units built per year in 2013, 2014 and 2015. That returns our market to construction levels last seen in 2007. In order to see this volume of construction, developers will need to be successful in raising the required equity, which has been a challenge. At the end of 2012, the Valley had 17 projects (of 50 units or greater) under construction, totaling a little more than 4,200 units. Building on that, we expect to see 15 to 20 projects per year through 2015. This is just a fraction of the more than 20,000 units filling the development pipeline. The demand for all these units, however, will hinge on Phoenix’s population and job growth. It will also be influenced by the national and global economies. Developers are capitalizing on the recent purchases of properties in prime, upscale locations that were not previously considered for strictly rental housing. Alliance Residential, P.B. Bell and JLB have all either begun construction or have plans in the works for rental developments in premium Phoenix …
The Indianapolis industrial market has experienced a significant amount of absorption during the past several quarters, driving down the multi-tenant vacancy rate to 3.3 percent and leading to a new round of speculative development, according to brokerage firm Cassidy Turley. The key engines driving growth are technology, housing, auto suppliers, and distribution centers related to Internet sales. Some 3.2 million square feet of speculative industrial space is under construction in the Indianapolis area. The city currently has 240.5 million square feet of inventory. When completed, the speculative product in the development pipeline is expected to result in the multi-tenant vacancy rate rising closer to the historical norm of approximately 4 percent. Michael Weishaar, senior vice president and principal at Cassidy Turley’s Indianapolis office, says the low industrial vacancy rate is partly the result of proper planning. “Our developers are intelligent about oversupply,” says Weishaar. “They saw a rough economy and thought we needed to re-look at our supply chain.” With so much speculative development under way, is there enough demand to absorb it all? Although vacancy rates will rise closer to their historical average in the short term when space comes available, in the long run this amount of space …
The Woodlands office submarket is one of Houston’s better performing submarkets, experiencing a robust fourth quarter 2012 with total absorption of 107,932 square feet. Spec office buildings have recently achieved 85 percent occupancy or higher prior to completing construction. For example, both 4 Waterway Square Place (a nine-story, 216,000-square-foot Class A building) and 3 Waterway Square Place (an 11-story, 234,000-square-foot Class A building) preleased to more than 95 percent prior to completion of construction. Total net absorption registered a positive 145,804 square feet in 2012. In addition, total vacancy for the market dropped 5.2 percent overall in the third quarter of 2012 to 4.2 percent in the final quarter of 2012. Class A rental rates in the second quarter of 2012 were $33.07, up 83 basis points from the prior quarter. Similarly, Class B rates increased three basis points to $22.81. Based on the continued decreasing vacancy rates, as well as continued increasing rental rates, The Woodlands projects to be a landlord favorable market for the year 2013. Several high-profile projects are under construction, including: • ExxonMobil Corp. is currently developing a 385-acre site along Interstate 45 and Spring Creek. The site will serve to consolidate all upstream Houston ExxonMobil …
Well, 2012 has come to an end, the fiscal cliff has been averted for now and the presidential election is behind us. Despite it all, retail sales in the Arizona market seemed to fair reasonably well last year, albeit with markdowns acting as the trigger point for consumers to make those last-minute holiday purchases. With an active 2012 under our belts, the Phoenix market is hoping to outdo itself this year with leasing activity as retailers gear up for cautious expansions, downsizes and relocations. The housing picture for Maricopa County is terrific in terms of inventory being absorbed. Homebuilders are building out improved lots and creating new subdivisions. It is likely that new housing permits, which were positive in 2011, will result in more than 12,000 new homes in 2013. This number should increase steadily for the balance of the decade. This is not to indicate that new retail development will be built anytime soon, but that these numbers may create more of an opportunity to fill existing retail space that has a current vacancy rate of 11.7 percent. Last year, we experienced a positive absorption of 1.03 million square feet, according to CoStar. Therefore, unless a significant amount of …
In the Detroit area and across Southeast Michigan, medical office continues to be a strong performer. With healthcare being one of the state’s largest and fastest-growing economic drivers, an aging population and a robust system of public, private and university hospitals across the region, a generally positive growth trend seems unlikely to change anytime soon. Farbman Group’s own portfolio of 4 million square feet is currently more than 95 percent occupied, and quality medical office space remains in high demand. There are, however, some noteworthy developments taking place both inside and outside the healthcare industry that are shaping its future. Medical office real estate trends locally and regionally are beginning to reflect those changes. Consolidation Wave Perhaps the healthcare trend with the most significant potential to alter the medical office and medical real estate marketplace in Southeast Michigan is that of consolidation — healthcare systems coming together via mergers, acquisitions and strategic partnerships. This trend is, in some respects, similar to what has occurred in the banking industry during the last decade. We are likely to see the same kind of phenomenon continue to pick up momentum in healthcare during the next five years or so. There are three primary …
The Houston industrial market ended 2012 on a positive growth trajectory and will continue to be one of the healthiest markets in the U.S. into 2013. 2012 ended with a fourth quarter vacancy rate of 5.2 percent and a positive net absorption totaling more than 1.7 million square feet of combined industrial space. A lack of available industrial inventory in the market is driving new development projects (2.5 million square feet) for both traditional warehouse/distribution space as well as freestanding, crane-ready manufacturing facilities that remain at a premium citywide. The lack of available inventory is pushing development outwards and driving rental rates and sales prices upward. This trend will continue to grow into 2013, but rental rates and sale prices will taper-off midway through 2013 as the market can only bear so much increase. Land prices have also seen a sharp uptick forcing users and developers to consider sites upwards of $4 per square foot when they have historically fought to stay under $3 per square foot. Additionally, there is a strong need for rail-served land sites or facilities. As the energy sector continues its growth and the Port of Houston takes on more capacity, the need for rail served …
The Atlanta metro has been named one of the top cities for job growth and the population is rising at one of the fastest paces in the country, creating high demand for rental housing that will persist. Last year, an average of 200 residents per day moved into the area, and nearly 21 percent of the entire metro population falls within the prime renter cohort, which includes people between 20 and 34 years old. Uncertainty in the housing market is driving up the age of the first-time homebuyer. As many young adults form rental households in lieu of ownership, they will likely choose to live in modern, luxury apartments near entertainment and business districts. Meanwhile, in the single-family market, permitting activity remains well below prerecession levels and sales of existing single-family homes are just 57 percent of peaks reached before the recession, confirming that many of these new residents are looking for rentals. Apartment construction is at an all-time low this year, and demand for units will outpace new supply by more than seven times. As a result, vacancy will fall to the lowest point in over a decade, allowing operators to boost rents and match prerecession peaks. Looking at …