With all the construction vehicles on retail sites as you circle metro Boston, we can now quantify the retail slowdown attributable to the recession as a three-year window. Never has the local retail market been healthier than it is today. WS Development is under construction with its Whole Foods-anchored Meadowbrook Walk in Lynnfield. The Nordblom Company has begun 3rd Avenue, a Wegmans-anchored lifestyle project in Burlington. Market Basket is well under way at the former Polaroid site in Waltham. New England Development is building its Wegmans project in Chestnut Hill while WS redevelops the former Macy’s further east on Route 9. Also moving forward, though at a slightly earlier stage, is NED’s long-awaited Westwood project. A total of almost 3 million square feet of new high-profile — even iconic — retail space along Boston’s inner ring beltway is now upon us, exactly three years later than originally anticipated. Notably, grocery is driving all of these larger projects. While traditional market leader Stop & Shop makes only narrowly strategic moves and Shaw’s languishes, grocery chains of a wide range of sizes targeting distinct demographics have inspired development at both the local and regional level. Wegmans, Market Basket, Whole Foods, Price Rite …
Market Reports
The San Francisco apartment market is exceptionally active. It features extremely low vacancies, rapidly rising rents and tremendous demand for a very limited inventory of assets. Fueling this demand is San Francisco’s thriving technology sector and young professionals, which will maintain the metro’s stature as one of the premier rental markets in the country well into 2013. While nearby Silicon Valley lures large software and information companies, San Francisco has become the incubator for tech start-ups. More than 94,000 people in the metro area have jobs pertaining to the tech industry, which is up 10 percent from last year. Small but influential firms such as Zynga, Dropbox and Airbnb are continuously hiring young professionals in the core of the metro. These high-paid individuals prefer renting, and are waiting longer to enter the single-family home market. Employment this year has been primarily driven by San Francisco’s technology industry. Major firms such as Facebook and Twitter continue to hire as their businesses evolve. By year’s end, employers will have hired a total of 29,000 workers, a 3 percent increase in total employment. Vacancies are currently some of the lowest on record, as the tech industry flourishes. In the last 12 months, the …
The St. Louis industrial market continues a slow and steady march toward recovery. The Midwest is often looked to for stability and consistency, and with the vacancy rate and lease rates changing little over the past two years, the description is holding true. In fact, the overall average lease rates for warehouse space have only dipped slightly after holding steady, while vacancy has been a consistent 8.7 percent for warehouse product. While the lease rates have been stable, we have begun to see sale prices drop, especially for vacant product. As these pricing changes begin to hit the market, the sense that we are at the bottom is prevalent, and the opportunities are there for anyone who can buy buildings with cash. Changing of the Guard While the real estate fundamentals may have remained the same for two years, the property ownership picture has changed quite a bit. The exit from the St. Louis market by TA Associates in January resulted in the entry of Cobalt Capital, which purchased the 13-building portfolio. Beverly Hills, Calif.-based Blue Real Estate has seen its flex portfolio of 850,000 square feet go back to the lender, opening the door for another player to get …
The uncertainty created by the nation’s current economic and fiscal conditions continues to dampen confidence for both government and private sector tenants resulting in increasing vacancy rates and declining net absorption in the D.C. market. In anticipation of the looming possibility that the government will fail to resolve its budget impasse, and so enforce mandated federal budget cuts (i.e., “sequestration”), companies that rely on federal spending are consolidating operations, discarding excess space and deferring leasing decisions. As a result, the Washington, D.C., vacancy rate, which has been in the mid-single digits for at least the last decade, has steadily increased since 2010 to over 12.5 percent as of the second quarter of 2012. The D.C. market’s leasing activity has been dominated by lease renewals, totaling 87 percent of all leasing activity in 2011 and 70 percent for the first half of 2012. Despite the economic uncertainty, the D.C. market continues to see new development activity, with nearly 2 million square feet currently under construction, and more than 70 percent of this space pre-leased. The 10-acre, mixed-use CityCenterDC project on the former Convention Center site has approximately 500,000 square feet of office space currently under construction, 77 percent of which has …
Like many metro areas across the U.S., Boston’s 494 million-square-foot industrial market slowed as we approached elections and the end of 2012. Despite mixed signals, the situation isn’t entirely dour, and there are signs of optimism in terms of demand and activity, evidenced by a slight decrease in vacancy and 475,000 square feet of net absorption in the first half of 2012, according to CoStar Group. At a more macro level, the Boston area’s thriving technology sector has led to job growth and declining unemployment, which ultimately increases consumer demand and benefits the industrial property market. The Boston industrial market has been flat for more than three years now, but that’s created opportunities for end users to lease higher-quality properties than they previously inhabited while reducing occupancy costs, which is the prevalent trend both in Boston and nationwide. Tenants seek to improve efficiency by consolidating warehouse and distribution into more modern properties with higher clear-height ceilings and other features. While users demand more efficient and flexible industrial space, they also demand more flexible — and generally shorter — lease terms. If tenants can achieve both operational efficiency and lower costs through outsourcing to third-party logistics providers (3PLs), even better. End …
The San Diego retail market has posted five consecutive quarters of positive net absorption with strong activity in power centers and several vacant big box spaces coming off the market. Through the third quarter of 2012, year-to-date gross leasing activity totals more than 1.8 million square feet with about 330,000 square feet of positive net absorption. So far, we have already surpassed the 2011 gross leasing total of about 1.4 million square feet. The steady leasing activity and positive net absorption dropped the direct vacancy rate from 7.4 percent at the beginning of the first quarter 2012 to 6.9 percent at the end of the third quarter. The current overall vacancy rate, including sublease space, is 7.2 percent. Vacant big box spaces are attracting tenants from national credit retailers to specialty markets. Dick’s Sporting Goods recently opened a 46,019-square-foot location in a redevelopment of a former Mervyn’s site in the Sports Arena submarket. Meanwhile, Zion Market, a Korean-focused grocery and specialty store, subleased a vacant 94,000-square-foot Sears Essentials building in Kearny Mesa. In addition to tenants taking big box spaces, several high-end fashion retailers are entering the San Diego market or opening new stores. Kate Spade New York opened its …
Cash is flowing in the greater Twin Cities real estate market in spite of slow, but positive, year-over-year absorption rates. Investment action was significant in the third quarter of this year. New multifamily housing projects are booming, private student housing developments serving the University of Minnesota continue to grow, and corporate build-to-suit projects add to the inventory in a down economy. The Twin Cities office market has remained stable with modest absorption through the past three years based upon existing inventory. And although there is significant construction in other product types, there is little significant multi-tenant office construction at present. ECONOMIC BACKDROP The 5.7 percent unemployment rate in the Twin Cities stood well below the national jobless rate of 7.8 percent in September. In fact, the unemployment rate for the state of Minnesota was 5.8 percent, again much better than the national average. The Twin Cities does not depend on any single industry and is home to a variety of Fortune 500 headquarters such as Ameriprise Financial, Best Buy, Ecolab, General Mills, Target, 3M, St. Jude Medical, Medtronic and UnitedHealth Group. The variety of services and industries helped buffer the local economy during the Great Recession, although the downturn adversely …
A slight decline in vacancy this year confirms that Washington, D.C.’s apartment sector is in a new phase, where a closer alignment in tenant demand and completions will maintain vacancy within a tight range. Solid rental absorption promises to persist as employers hire workers who create new households and homeownership remains out of reach for many who cannot qualify for mortgages. However, potential cuts in defense spending might dull future housing demand in Virginia. The difference in the multifamily market at mid-year 2012 and one year ago shows the revival of residential construction as developers have cranked up production of all types of housing. Multifamily starts have jumped and represent more than 40 percent of all residential groundbreakings over the past year, approximately two times the typical proportion. All sections of the market will receive new multifamily stock this year, with only modest growth expected in Maryland offset by significant completions in Virginia. Meanwhile, most of this year’s production in the district will come online in the second half of 2012, limiting the extent of vacancy declines in the third and fourth quarters. Positive job growth supported growth in D.C.’s multifamily sector. Employers added 25,200 workers in the first six …
Multifamily transaction activity has increased in San Diego during the fourth quarter, due partly to the typical end-of-year rush to close escrow, as well as uncertainty about tax reform in 2013. Agency debt is still a large driver, but relationship banking is picking up for well-heeled borrowers, and investors increasingly have multiple options. The multifamily rental market continues to benefit from the high down payment and credit requirements placed on average home buyers who still choose to rent in San Diego where the cost to rent is still below the cost to own. San Diego’s diverse economic base added 30,300 jobs over the past 12 months, and year-over-year employment gains in excess of 2 percent were reported in nearly all sectors. San Diego has seen a rise in tourism, which has positively impacted the service industries. While manufacturing has struggled to gain footing, growth within construction and finance has emerged. Unemployment has decreased 1.3 percent since August 2011 and is currently 1.4 percent below state levels. Home prices have increased about 5.2 percent in 2012 but remain 37.5 percent below the 2006 peak levels, with a median-priced home at $350,000 today. San Diego’s population has increased 5.1 percent since 2008. …
The Twin Cities retail market continues to steadily improve from the economic depths of 2008 and 2009. There has been 549,194 square feet of positive absorption since the first quarter of 2011. Another encouraging sign is the increased activity among landlords, tenants and developers. One example of the positive outlook is the investment that landlords are making at regional malls to upgrade and reposition them. The Mall of America in Bloomington seeks to add 550,000 square feet of retail, medical office and hotel space. Southdale Mall, Ridgedale Mall, and Maplewood Mall are also investing in their centers to better compete in this rising market. Another sign of increased activity can be seen among food tenants. Quick service restaurants are betting that Minneapolis-St. Paul residents have a large appetite for yogurt, sandwiches, and burgers and are actively seeking space. Burger and sandwich concepts include Smashburger, Which Wich, Firehouse Subs, and Freddy’s, which are growing in popularity along with Freeziac, Tutti Frutti, Menchies, and CherryBerry yogurt shops. Also active are Noodles, Chipotle, and Starbucks. These types of tenants have gobbled up smaller spaces and end-cap spaces vacated by tenants such as defunct Hollywood Video and Blockbuster. They are pursuing the same spaces …