The national economic downturn hasn’t impacted the greater New Orleans retail market nearly as much as the glacial pace of decision-making on behalf of retailers and investors who have pledged to enter, or re-enter, this still underserved market. As we close in on the 5-year anniversary of Hurricane Katrina, retail properties in Jefferson Parish and other more affluent parishes have rebounded, while large swaths of Orleans Parish, home to the city of New Orleans, remain retail starved. Many residents of New Orleans East, for example, must still travel 20 to 25 minutes to find affordable basic staples. Exacerbating this problem are relatively high barriers to entry in New Orleans, which is landlocked and has restrictive big-box ordinances. There’s still not a single Target store, Best Buy, Bed Bath & Beyond, PetSmart or Staples in the city and just one Walmart. Making things even more difficult, Orleans Parish continues to lose tax dollars to other parishes. However, New Orleans is slowly regaining its momentum, with roughly 350,000-plus people back in residence, compared to a pre-Katrina population of about 450,000. Most New Orleans neighborhoods that were not flooded have returned to nearly 100 percent of their July 2005 populations. Retail real estate …
Market Reports
For those who were expecting some market relief by now, there is not a great deal of positive prognosis to provide. Despite the slow rise in the stock market since its fall, the market continues to suffer from mediocre progress with its continuous ups and downs. There is still much change needed in the global economy to sustain the stock market growth we need to realize a full and effective recovery of other markets, including commercial real estate. But I would like to say that we are now bouncing off the bottom with an ability to understand where market corrections have settled in terms of value, cap rates, absorption and development, which is all but non-existent. With historic high unemployment and the uncertainty of what new pothole we might hit while we are finding our way out, it may still be a rough year or more ahead of us. Much depends on how the commercial lending industry plays out the myriad transactions that still linger in their portfolios. The penalties for a defer-and-deny or an extend-and-pretend philosophy may not yet to been fully realized. On a positive note, if consumer confidence continues to eek up, while other economic indicators remain …
Leasing activity in the Albuquerque industrial market has been inconsistent during the first half of 2010. The market cannot seem to sustain any positive momentum, with many starts and stops so far this year. As is the case in many other markets, there has been virtually no speculative construction in the Albuquerque industrial market in the past 2 years; positively, this trend has helped keep vacancy rates from rising even more than they have. The industrial market vacancy rate for Albuquerque is currently 9.4 percent, which is 1 percent higher than a year ago and more than 2 percent higher than 2 years ago. Albuquerque’s north Interstate-25 corridor continues to lead all submarkets with regard to overall leasing activity, capturing a full 85 percent of all leased space in the second quarter of this year. A significant transaction just completed in the submarket is the Southwest Regional Council of Carpenters’ 93,686-square-foot union training center at 3900 Pan American NE. Slower submarkets include the downtown area (13.3 percent vacancy) and the South Valley (15.4 percent), both of which have older inventory including buildings with functional obsolescence. The overall lack of demand for Albuquerque industrial space can be attributed in large part …
The resumption of job growth and significant reductions in new construction will support improvement in Dallas/Fort Worth apartment fundamentals through the end of the year. During the first half of 2010, employment in the metroplex increased by 32,600 jobs, a welcome turnaround after the loss of 124,000 positions during the recession. While the financial, information and trade, transportation and utilities sectors shed a combined 6,000 jobs in the first half, the government, manufacturing, and education and health services sectors led job creation, adding 34,000 positions. As a result, the unemployment rate in Dallas/Fort Worth dropped roughly 10 basis points to 8.2 percent in the first half and remains well below the national average. Developers will deliver approximately 7,600 apartment units in 2010, down nearly 56 percent from 2009 and more closely aligned with new-supply trends in 2006 and 2007. Construction remains focused on the Dallas side of the Metroplex, with developers in Tarrant County completing 2,675 units during the past year. New supply in Fort Worth was isolated to the North Arlington, Northern Tarrant County and Northwest Fort Worth submarkets. After rising 360 basis points through the recession, apartment vacancy in Dallas/Fort Worth declined 80 basis points to 8.9 percent …
The Las Vegas office market features a number of unique characteristics. For example, the Class A office market is not concentrated into a central business district. Office users in the downtown area consist almost exclusively of tenants that require proximity to the courts or government offices. Consequently, the tenant mix is limited to uses associated with litigation and government services. Other Class A tenants are spread around the valley at projects such as Hughes Center, a location favored by financial services, gaming interests and transactional law firms. The pool of Class A tenants is relatively shallow, measuring 6.2 million square feet or 13 percent of the overall office market. Reasons include a narrow economic focus — primarily gaming and tourism — and a lack of regional or national corporate headquarters. Consequently, speculative development and operation of Class A office space favors local players (i.e., developers, lenders and brokers). The speculative office pipeline for Las Vegas is dry except for one notable project. Tivoli Village, a 750,000-square-foot retail/office project, is anticipated to deliver its first phase in October. Despite office vacancy in excess of 20 percent, the developers, a partnership between IDB Group of Israel and local developer EHB Companies, have …
The fast-growing Salt Lake City metropolitan area, also known as the Wasatch Front, stretches about 40 miles north of downtown Salt Lake City to Ogden and about 40 miles south to Provo. The area now boasts a population of about 2.1 million — or about 75 percent of the state’s population. Highly favorable demographics continue to lure top-quality retailers, restaurants and shopping centers to the region, which enjoys one of the largest average family sizes in the country (3.6), the youngest median age (28.9) and an unusually high median household income of about $63,000. The market also has a highly educated, value-based population with a strongly established work ethic that encourages retail patronage and expansion. Growth in Salt Lake County, which has a population of about 1.1 million, is particularly strong in the southwest portion. Area planners are projecting a population growth of 1 million people in the Wasatch Front during the next 30 years. Unlike other Western markets, retail in the metro area is not highly volatile. Most retailers did take an expansion hiatus here during the recession, but store fallout was minimal, except for a handful of closings by bankrupt national retailers. Some major national retailers, including Target, …
San Francisco is not immune to the forces of gravity, but sometimes it appears that might be true for the city's apartment market. Across the country, the multifamily sector has weathered the Great Recession better than other asset classes. Availability of capital — both equity and debt — has resulted in relatively modest value declines compared to office, industrial and retail investments. Transaction volume has been relatively robust, largely attributable to the disassembly and re-sale of the former Lembi portfolio. Research indicates that in excess of 50 apartment sales were completed in the first half of 2010, for a total value representing about $120 million. Among the most active buyers were Flynn Investments, Klingbeil Capital Management and Tribeca Cos. Expect market activity to remain level or even increase, as buyer appetite has yet to be satisfied. The rental market also seems to have stabilized. According to Novato, California-based RealFacts, a national leader in apartment industry research, rents in San Francisco are only down modestly since second quarter of 2009, but they are up slightly in the first half of 2010. While occupancy is reported to be at a relatively low 94 percent, we believe this state may be a temporary …
Dallas/Fort Worth’s retail market continues to show the impact of the economic downturn, most notably in a lower occupancy rate. But the market at mid-year 2010 is showing signs of getting a little better. The market is helped by the improving economy. For example, April represented the third month in a row of positive job growth in D/FW, although overall unemployment remains more than 8 percent. As of mid-year, D/FW shows an occupancy rate of approximately 86.2 percent, compared to 86.4 percent at year-end 2009. The rate, which is very low, results in part from the many vacant boxes that were created in the past few years by the closures of Circuit City, Linens ‘n Things, Shoe Pavilion, Steve & Barry’s and Mervyn’s, plus underpforming grocer and department store locations. The rate remains fairly consistent thanks to a market where no major chains have gone out of business. Other than a handful of 2010 closings of underperforming Blockbuster stores (following a number of 2009 closings), we haven’t seen major chain pullbacks similar to when Linens ‘n Things failed in late 2008 and Circuit City and closed its last stores in early 2009, putting hundreds of thousands of feet back onto …
The Hampton Roads metropolitan area of southeastern Virginia, named for both the Norfolk-Virginia Beach metro area it encompasses and the body of water that surrounds it, is unlike most other U.S. markets. Its huge military presence, which includes the Air Force, Army, Coast Guard, Marines and the largest Naval base in the world, helps keep this market on an even keel, as do the estimated 6 million people who visit its tourism haven, Virginia Beach, each year. Consequently, this growing market has not been hit nearly as hard by the retail downturn as others. The seven cities that chiefly comprise the Hampton Roads trade area—Virginia Beach, Norfolk, Hampton, Chesapeake, Newport News, Portsmouth and Suffolk—are expected to show a combined population well in excess of 2 million when the 2010 census is tallied, up from 1.6 million at last count. There has been some softening in retail demand. Like elsewhere, landlords have had to re-adjust expectations. Those willing to be aggressive and creative are getting deals done, though certainly not at the same numbers as just 3 years ago. While small businesses seem more willing to look at new opportunities, one overriding issue continues to be tenants’ inability to obtain financing. …
It’s no secret that the greater Detroit area suffered a double hit in the last 4 years, first from the well-publicized decline in auto sales and then from the 2008 crash and lengthy downturn.Despite the economic gyrations, however, there is a considerable upside and leasing momentum to talk about. Several new-to-the-market retailers, restaurants and fitness chains are landing in the region, including ULTA, which has done 10 deals in the last 7 months in mostly high-income areas. Discount grocer ALDI has opened 20 stores in the past 18 months, most often purchasing land to build 12,000-square-foot stores in high-density, middle-income areas. Other new retailers to the market are Five Below, Christmas Three Shops, buybuyBABY, Yankee Candle, clothier Citi Trends and a new concept by local furniture giant Art Van called Pure Sleep. Five Guys Burgers and Fries, Fat Burger and Chipotle have also moved into the market, as have Fitness 19, Planet Fitness and their much larger competitor LA Fitness. LA Fitness is opting for 50,000-square-foot locations, both stand-alone and retrofit, primarily in professionally oriented, mid-to-upper income areas. The chain has opened eight locations in the market, and in the past 2 years, it has built clubs in such high-traffic …