For a city that has at times been portrayed as emblematic of the kind of economic fallout left in the wake of the recent recessionary cycle, Detroit is actually responding quite well. The current state of the Detroit office market is just one data point — but it’s a promising one. In greater Detroit — and across Southeast Michigan — there are tentative signs that things are moving in the right direction for the first time in several years. Not everything is positive by any stretch of the imagination, but the progress, while tentative, looks genuine. Since the city’s office market bottomed out in the summer of 2010, it has been slowly and steadily recovering. There were a few low points in August and September of last year, but the market began absorbing some space toward the end of the year, and that trend has continued in the first part of 2011. As you might expect, however, the progress has been uneven. Consolidation areas like Southfield, where there is a lot more activity in the marketplace, have generally done slightly better than destination-focused markets like Dearborn and Livonia, which had taken a more significant initial blow and subsequently have not …
Market Reports
While most of the country grows based on the birthrate, Las Vegas has grown at almost six percent per year based on the tremendous influx of new residents. That growth fueled retail development matching the pace until the growth suddenly stopped in 2008. But today, a different scenario is beginning to emerge. With many retail tenants going out of their spaces, beginning in 2008, the local retailers that had survived began a flight to quality. Key tenants in strip centers moved up to anchored centers. Other retailers that had been in the back of strip centers moved up onto pads. The addition of new space has been in waves, with the first starting in 2009, as the local retailers that survived the prior year and saw rents decreasing began adding second locations. The second wave of tenants began at the end of 2009, as strong regional retailers began seeking additional locations. The third wave, which has so far been quite small, is the national tenants. With so many choices around the nation, the national retailers are still trying to decide if Las Vegas, which was hit particularly hard, makes sense regarding expansion. The type of tenants that have been most …
Although the Indianapolis retail market took a hit during the downturn, it never sunk as deeply into the doldrums as other U.S. cities, and has been relatively quick to rebound from its modest slide. Maintaining an unemployment rate well below the national average (8.7 percent at year-end 2010), with the prediction of 20,000 new jobs for 2011 ensures this market is headed in the right direction. Retail real estate brokers in this statistical region of more than 2 million were actually quite busy in 2008 and 2009 when most other regions were reeling from the economic crunch. Recognizing still-strong market fundamentals, retailers tried to seize on the doom and gloom of the times to lowball local landlords, who for the most part would not yield to unreasonable rent offers that they knew would tie them up for years to come. While retail vacancies remain low in the city’s most robust retail corridors, they are higher than they were before the downturn began in areas where demographics have shifted. We continue to see a flight to quality in this market with the most attractive, well-positioned shopping centers commanding surprisingly strong rents. For instance, Class A big box rents in highly desirable …
The St. Louis market, long known for its diverse economy, has been slow to extricate itself from the downturn. The retail real estate brokerage business has been mostly dormant for the past 2 years, particularly the tenant representation side, as scant few national retailers dared to brave the murky expansion waters. Rental rates in the market decreased slightly from third quarter 2010, ending at $12.51 per square foot. However, rates have held up better in some submarkets, including West St. Louis County, where they are $20-plus per square foot. Prime properties at hard corners are holding their own, but second-tier properties have taken a pretty hard hit with rents down into the mid- to high-single digits. When the recession started, many landlords granted rent reductions almost uniformly to tenants and will have to live with their decisions for a while, but other owners held fort and demanded to see sales reports as proof. This resilient region of nearly 3 million people is starting to show new signs of life heading into spring 2011. The market has seen slight improvements in retail vacancy rates, which dropped from 8.4 percent in third quarter 2010 to 8.1 percent in fourth quarter 2010, according …
There is a visible upside to the Boise retail market as we begin 2011. Major employers such as Micron Technology, Hewlett-Packard and Albertsons seem to be holding their own after some layoffs in recent years. A number of national retailers are considering smaller store footprints, which has led them to consider smaller markets like Boise. And pedestrian friendly downtown Boise endured the economic downturn reasonably well, remaining an employment and cultural center that’s home to dozens of local shops and other small businesses. In addition to art galleries, restaurants, coffeehouses, jewelers, wineries, salons, apparel shops and gift shops, national tenants such as The North Face, Anthropologie, Urban Outfitters and Office Depot are well located in the city. After a brutal 2009 and soft 2010, the Boise retail leasing market is showing signs of recovery, despite that the greater Boise area posted negative absorption of about 100,000 square feet last year due to a few large move outs. One long-delayed major lifestyle retail project is moving ahead and is a positive sign that confidence is returning to the market. After a 3-year delay, CenterCal Properties is breaking ground later this year on the 90-acre mixed-use Meridian Town Center in the growing …
The U.S. apartment sector staged a strong recovery in 2010 well ahead of expectations, despite modest job creation and stubbornly high unemployment. Net absorption surged, with occupied stock rising by nearly 200,000 units, double the number of apartments constructed and the highest level on record since 2000. Several factors contributed to high levels of absorption, including the release of pent-up renter demand as households de-bundled in the wake of the recession. In addition, apartments benefited from private-sector job growth in the critical 20- to 34-year-old cohort, expiration of the homebuyer tax credit, displaced foreclosed homeowners entering the renter pool, immigration and lower unit turnover. Renting also became a lifestyle and economic choice for many households as the effects of the housing collapse and recession persisted. Continued recovery in 2011 depends more heavily on improvements in the job market, which should gain momentum as the year progresses. Building on that momentum, operating conditions in the suburban Chicago apartment market will strengthen considerably this year, building on improvements in vacancy and rents recorded in 2010. Apartment construction will sink to one of the lowest levels in the past decade, minimizing competition for tenants at a time when renewed job growth will accelerate …
The commercial real estate market in Fairfield County reflects the issues affecting the greater national economy. Due to the fundamentals of commercial real estate and how the marketplace functions, the region will be in a state of malaise for the foreseeable future. The marketplace has bottomed, however, and will improve over time. From 2005 through mid 2008, employment was increasing, companies were expanding; there was competition to put money to work through loans and investments. Capital formation grew at a torrid pace as the national capitalistic system sought higher and higher returns in a market where the risk seemed to diminish each month. As that feel-good locomotive hit the wall in 2008, there were tremendous lay-offs and all capital sources that had been pushing money at the real estate asset class evaporated. In the first three quarters of 2009, tenants stopped conducting real estate business almost altogether. Even tenants driven by lease expirations often opted for short-term renewals due to the cataclysmic uncertainties that decision makers were facing. Additionally, tenant renewals were driven by give-backs of space as companies needed less space due to fewer employees. Companies took space proactively in 2007 because they anticipated hiring more employees, but they …
The retail market in the Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill MSA (“The Triangle”) is steadily improving. Retail vacancy dropped to 8.39 percent within the Triangle as of the third quarter — the result approximately 525,000 square feet in absorption over the past 12 months. Investors and retailers alike continue to be attracted to the region because of its sustainable economy fueled by the state government, Research Triangle Park and the University system. Several new anchor retailers entered the Triangle market during 2010, absorbing the majority of available boxes abandoned by Circuit City and Linens ‘N Things. Nordstrom Rack filled the former Linens ‘N Things space at CBL’s Renaissance Center at Southpoint in Durham; Ollie’s Bargain Outlet opened at York Properties’ Cary Village Square in Cary; The Container Storemade its Triangle debut in the former Circuit City location on Glenwood Avenue across from Crabtree Valley Mall in Raleigh; and buybuy BABY opened its first Triangle location at Kimco’s New Hope Commons in Durham. Only a small amount of new retail development was completed in 2010. Kane Realty delivered the only anchored retail project at North Hills East, which is situated at Six Forks Road and Interstate 440 — Raleigh’s “Beltline”. Anchored by Harris Teeter …
Austin remains a popular destination for institutional and private multifamily investors. In the first half of 2010, there was a scarcity premium as buyer demand far exceeded the number of properties offered for sale. It was common to give 50-plus property tours and receive roughly 40 offers for a fully marketed Class A apartment community. The enormous amount of investment capital raised in 2008 and 2009 struggled to find a home in early 2010. As apartment fundamentals improved, interest rates decreased and cap rates compressed, more product came to market in the third quarter of 2010. Subsequently, the number of investor tours and offers has been cut in half. Offers today are coming from well-capitalized low leverage private investors, pension fund advisors, private funds and public REITs. Urban Class A cap rates have dropped from 6.5 percent in late 2009 to an average of 4.75 percent today. Suburban Class A cap rates are trading around 5.25 percent. The 1980s to 1990s vintage, B class product, is trading in a range from 5.75 to 6.75 percent based on quality and location. The highest conventional apartment sales prices have occurred in and around the Central Business District (CBD) where mid-rise Class A …
The Los Angeles creative office market sector was certainly not immune to the timid economy, which continued during the third quarter. The limited number of creative companies experiencing growth through this period was limited and representative of the economy as a whole. However, the creative product type — the preferred space sought by the production, post-production, advertising/marketing and even technology sectors — was also surprisingly supply constrained. Due in large part to the lack of new construction or large-scale conversion of old industrial buildings into creative office, tenants entering the marketplace with hopes of finding numerous attractive options and generous business terms in a more tenant-favored climate instead found limited product to meet their needs from a functional and/or aesthetic standpoint. Although buoyed by a market that was experiencing meek demand, many businesses that view their office space as much in terms of the environment it creates for the attraction and retention of creative talent were prevented from realizing the true benefits of a tenant-favored market due to a lack of supply. Those that made moves during the end of 2009 and earlier this year absorbed much of the attractive, ready-for-occupancy space at more aggressive pricing from landlords looking to …