Office As with many markets around the country, office development in San Diego has ground to a near halt. Many projects are stalled in the pre-development phase or are just completed, but new groundbreakings are scarce. Cash flow is king, and landlords, who were happy to purchase partially vacant buildings a couple of years ago, are now eager to lease up their buildings as quickly as possible and have come to terms with the fact that they need to lower lease rates in order to do so. The average downtime for vacant space is 1 year and then some, so landlords are willing to make concessions, including more months of free rent and increased tenant improvements. Overall, tenants can expect to enjoy a 15 to 20 percent total lease value reduction compared to a year ago, and many tenants who signed at high lease rates several years ago are opting to re-structure their leases early in exchange for reduced rates. Exceeding 25 percent in vacancy, the Carlsbad submarket has been especially hard-hit by the economic downturn, mostly due to overbuilding in that area. The ever-popular Del Mar and UTC submarkets have probably fared among the best, but still hover near …
Market Reports
The northern Nevada office market remained weak in 2008 with all four quarters recording increased vacancy and negative net absorption, a continuation of a trend that began in 2007 when three out of four quarters finished with negative net absorption. Last year finished with negative 116,000 square feet of leased office space and vacancy exceeding 20 percent. Directly related to the drastic downturn in the residential real estate market, Reno’s office performance had been fueled by the national homebuilders, mortgage companies and title companies, who saw their requirements for office space drop as quickly as the demand for their products and services. The area’s office sector quickly changed from growth and high demand to nearly non-existent demand and increasing vacancy, thus leaving investors and developers scrambling for tenants. With rising vacancy and demand declining, many office property owners are willing to slash effective lease rates to secure tenants. The average asking rate for Class A properties at year-end 2008 was $22.08 per square foot, a $1.56 less than a year earlier, and Class B was down to $16.68 per square foot. During the highs of late 2006, the effective rates for class A product exceeded $27 per square foot. With …
The Reno-Sparks apartment market will continue to face occupancy challenges due to job losses at local casinos, hotels and other gaming-related companies due to the current recession. Effective rents will remain flat in 2009 and in some cases decrease, while occupancies are expected to decline, building on a trend established in second half 2008. Landlords will be forced to offer concessions as they compete for new and existing tenants. Apartment owners across the market are vying to attract new tenants and retain existing ones. As a result, concessions are ranging from reductions in deposits to a full month of free rent, especially at properties with management issues. Remaining flat, the local economy was experiencing unemployment of approximately 8 percent in November 2008 due to layoffs in many sectors, including the leisure and hospitality industry. In the 1970s, 30 percent of the employees in Reno worked in the gaming industry, but today only 17 percent are involved in that sector. In fact, the leading employers of Reno’s increasingly diversifying economy are the Washoe County School District, IGT, Catholic Healthcare West and the gaming-hospitality industry. Looking at fundamentals, fourth quarter 2008 vacancy was 9.4 percent in the Reno-Sparks MSA, reflecting an increase …
The University of Alabama at Birmingham continues to be the most powerful and stable economic engine in North Central Alabama. The university offers the community high-paying jobs as both faculty and staff employees and an affordable and beneficial educational opportunity, while drawing patients and visitors to its world-class medical center from throughout the region, and in many instances, from all over the globe. Approximately 12 years ago, Alabama embarked on a program to entice automotive manufacturers to the state. That program paid off first with Mercedes, then with Honda and Hyundai, which are all located in central Alabama. Birmingham is at the center of this automotive triangle. With tens of thousands of jobs associated with the industry, Birmingham has been able to continue its manufacturing tradition with higher pay than the old iron and steel jobs of the city’s past. Despite the pressure on the automotive sector from the current economic downturn, Alabama-based manufacturers appear well-positioned to weather the storm and return to profitability. That bodes well for Birmingham, and that bodes well for Birmingham’s retail. On February 5, 2009, Birmingham-based Bruno’s Supermarkets declared Chapter 11 Bankruptcy. Locally, the move surprised no one, but it did bring finality to the …
Multifamily investment activity in Connecticut is expected to gain some additional momentum this year after a reasonably strong 2008. Last year, investors’ fears of the added risks associated with lower-tier assets limited transactions to mostly Class A and B+ properties in the state’s urban areas. While reduced investor demand for properties in secondary and tertiary locations will continue, buyers are expected to target Class B/C apartments in stable CBD markets. Buyers will likely target lower-tier properties in the New Haven and Hartford core, Hamden and the Fairfield/Bridgeport/Trumbull Triangle, where students drive demand for properties. Fewer Class A transactions and the presence of low-leverage opportunistic buyer funds will likely result in a shift in pricing trends, causing cap rates to increase to the mid-7 to 9 percent range. Apartment properties are trading and being financed in the region, thanks largely to agency lenders and still-active local and regional commercial banks. With the fall of the CMBS market, a financing void has emerged in the local and national markets. In 2006 and 2007 CMBS originations nationwide totaled more than $400 billion. Our research suggests that more than $80 billion in CMBS loans will come due in 2009-2010 and recapitalizing those loans will …
The Seattle market is currently experiencing the lowest tenant demand in 30 years. Both early stage companies and strong credit corporations are tightening their belts and are reluctant to commit capital. Large companies with strong credit usually look for cost saving consolidation opportunities, but unfortunately, this requires some up-front capital, which is being frozen by financially savvy executives. Many new developments commenced 2 to 3 years ago as Seattle was rated one of the top five real estate markets in the nation. Those projects broke ground without the foresight of the recession that followed. There are currently four new vacant office buildings complete or close to completion. Those buildings include West 8th, 1918 Stewart, 2201 Westlake and 1100 Eastlake. All of their anxious landlords and investors are competing for a small pool tenants. Additionally, the downfall of Washington Mutual has brought thousands of additional square feet onto market. JP Morgan Chase refuted most leases through its bankruptcy acquisition of Washington Mutual. This perfect storm of over supply totals more than 6,500,000 square feet of class A and B office space available for lease. The Eastside markets have been saved from excessive vacancy owing to Microsoft’s expansion last year. However, overall …
In the wake of rising office vacancies and sublease space, tenant opportunities are at their most pronounced for companies seeking office space throughout the Chicago Metro market, which includes both the CBD and the suburbs, in 2009. In Chicago and across the U.S., credit-worthy tenants continue to be in a position to strike deals at a fraction of previous rents. Landlords are beginning to offer increased concessions such as tenant improvement funds, rent abatement, and greater lease flexibility. Nationally, such offerings have escalated nearly 20 percent over the last 24 months, while rents have been driven down some 10 percent in the last 3 months alone. Chicago’s sublease space climbed to 7 million square feet, including 2.67 million square feet in the CBD plus the suburbs in the first quarter of 2009, according to Jones Lang LaSalle research. Sublease space will jump further in the coming months as corporate America's more recent job cuts trickle down to commercial real estate. The overall vacancy rate, including subleases, in Chicago’s CBD is 18,140,000 square feet, or 13.6 percent, and is 22,900,000 square feet or 23.9 percent for suburban Chicago in the first quarter of 2009. The absorption rate is at -0.8 percent …
Evan P. Kristol is senior vice president of Investments and Still Hunter, III, is first vice president of Investments for Marcus & Millichap Real Estate Investment Services in Fort Lauderdale, Florida. 1. What area is your expertise South Florida Apartments and Distressed Multifamily Properties (Broward County) 2. What trends do you see presently in multifamily development in your area? In recent years, strong population growth and an expanding job market drove demand for apartments in South Florida. Economic uncertainty involving the residential market has created an unstable situation for local developers causing them to become guardedly optimistic regarding their future construction plans. There is not much new development taking place. Unsold condos continue to compete with apartments. The positive aspect of supply-side fundamentals is an ongoing reduction in permit issuance. In Broward County 1,400 multifamily units were issued last year, an amount that is expected to fall to fewer than 1,000 units in 2009. 3. Who are the active multifamily developers in your area? Minto Group Inc, Altman Development Corporation, Gables Residential and ZOM are a few active developers in South Florida. 4. Please name one or two significant multifamily developments in your area. What impact will these projects have …
The proverbial good news–bad news scenario is at play when it comes to land values and transactions in Albuquerque, New Mexico. As always, the good news first. Albuquerque did not experience the effects of mammoth overbuilding and the resulting plummeting disintegration of value that has infected many other markets. The 180 degree reversal of values that commenced in the run-up to 2008 in areas like Phoenix and Las Vegas and continues as we write is in stark contrast to current Albuquerque price levels, where generally most commercial property and land in particular have suffered far less than in those areas and other markets nationally. There is, however, still bad news if you’re a local owner, prospective seller or broker trying to make a living in the land business. Historically Albuquerque has lagged behind most other areas of the country in economic timeline trends. If you subscribe to the theory that a housing sales slump is the precursor of a commercial real estate decline it’s easy to extrapolate why non-residential land here is beginning to experience a current decrease in demand. Current reports from appraisers and brokers in the residential subdivision business provide a gloomy picture of north of 10,000 lots …
The Birmingham industrial market was much like the rest of the country in 2008. The recession reared its head in Birmingham, resulting in an overall decline in average rental rates and occupancy levels. The multi-tenant bulk distribution sector was the hardest hit, falling to 82.4 percent occupancy with a negative absorption of 206,000 square feet compared to the previous year’s 600,000 square feet of positive absorption. Surprisingly, the service center market showed positive absorption for the second year in a row, settling at 91.7 percent occupancy for the year end. There were no new developments completed in 2008, as landlords struggled to retain tenants and conserve cash. Other than the delivery of a 150,000-square-foot building currently under construction in Shelby County, we anticipate much of the same for 2009. Despite these challenges currently facing our market, several significant transactions completed in 2008 meant that the market was certainly not stagnant. Brookwood Pharmaceutical, a manufacturer and leading provider of surface modification and drug delivery technologies to the healthcare industry, acquired the former Saks corporate headquarters facility in the Lakeshore corridor. This 286,000-square-foot office and warehouse will receive an additional $30 million of capital investment. It is a prime example of Birmingham’s …