While national multi-housing trends have begun to show recessionary weakness, Indianapolis area market fundamentals have held up well over the past 12 months. Indianapolis has long been one of the more affordable single-family markets in the country and until recently had been well-supplied with several very efficient large single-family developers. The deterioration of this industry is the single largest factor responsible for the city’s stable and improving multi-housing performance. The Indianapolis multi-housing market consists of 130,000 units in 683 communities (larger than 20 units). The average community size is 191 units. Market wide occupancies in Indianapolis bottomed out in 2003 at 87.1 percent and have been steadily climbing since to 90.9 percent in 2008. During this same period concessions have declined and 2008 rent growth was 2.2 percent, placing rents at $659 ($.75 per square foot). The city’s top 50 communities, once threatened to a greater degree by single-family housing, have faired well over the past several quarters. As with most seasonal markets, the Indianapolis market shows a very predictable bell shaped occupancy curve with fourth and first quarter occupancy lows and peaks in the second and third quarters. Until first quarter 2009, the impact of the current recessionary environment …
Market Reports
“Are we there yet?” seems to be the big question with the Dallas/Fort Worth office market. The most likely answer is no, there is still tough times ahead. The Dallas/Fort Worth (DFW) Metroplex refused to participate in the recession for most of 2007 and 2008, but the fourth quarter of 2008 started a down trend that has so far continued in the first quarter of 2009. Sales volume is down, rental rates are down and vacancies are up. National annual sales volumes for office properties peeked at nearly $208 billion in 2007 to be followed by a drop of 75 percent in 2008 according to Real Capital Analytics. Sales volume for office investments held up slightly better in the Dallas market decreasing only 65 percent in 2008 as the credit markets began tightening. The rental rates and vacancy percentages held up much better in the DFW Metroplex than did the national averages. According to CoStar DFW hit its high vacancy rate in mid 2003 around 18 percent. Since that time it has steadily dropped with 2007 and 2008 remaining fairly stable at slightly above 16 percent. In 2007 and 2008 the Metroplex added 11,278,582 square feet of new office space …
If there’s any good news to be had in today’s challenging economic climate, perhaps it’s that now is an opportune time to be an apartment investor in metropolitan Phoenix. While the credit crunch has undeniably put a dent in sales activity — the difference between $52 million so far this year compared to $600 million for all of 2008 and $3.5 billion during 2007 — interest from well-capitalized private investors hunting for bargains among the rising selection of lender-owned properties for sale may provide a boost moving forward. The number of distressed properties has crept into the double digits since early 2009. Offerings in good locations, where the pricing reflects the market correction, can easily garner 15 to 20 offers, on par with bidding activity occurring even during the best of economic times. Active investors are primarily individuals and private capital sources searching for positive leverage and high returns. Meanwhile, REITs and advisors looking to firm up balance sheets, developers needing to pay off maturing construction loans, and lenders hoping to unload distressed properties make up the bulk of sellers. Another piece of good news: tighter lending requirements, coupled with a downturn in population and job growth, have effectively put …
Greater downtown Waco is experiencing a renaissance of growth offering an exciting front door to visitors and residents. This district comprises between 5 and 7 square miles of land right along Interstate 35 in Central Texas. The Brazos River flows through the downtown area, linking Baylor University, Interstate 35, Cameron Park and Cameron Park Zoo. The Downtown Business District encompasses approximately 350 acres, featuring an emerging Central Business District and an array of redevelopment opportunities. Currently, there are approximately 18,000 residents in greater Downtown Waco and 16,000 jobs all within 1.25 miles of the heart of Downtown. There is resurgence in office development in the downtown Waco market. In 2008, an unprecedented 100,000 square feet of Class A office space was added to downtown. A vast majority of the space has been leased. More projects are under development for owner-occupied refurbishment, new construction and speculative lease space. In addition to these office developments, there are several new projects gaining momentum in downtown Waco totaling more than $200 million in new public and private investment. Phase I of Waco Town Square, which is nearing completion, will add 17 acres of mixed-use residential and retail space. This includes the 46-unit Austin Avenue …
Kirk D. Olson and Drew Kristol are senior associates in Marcus & Millichap’s Miami office. What area is your expertise? • Miami-Dade County retail properties. What trends do you see presently in retail development in your area? • The only major retail developments in the area are those that were started prior to the market correction that occurred in fall 2008. There is an increase in vacancy rates — anywhere from 5 percent to 15 percent — in Miami-Dade County. Many shopping centers that have not had vacancy issues in the past 5 years are now experiencing vacancies for the first time. Owners are lowering their rents to keep current tenants and are not generating much interest from leasing signs and advertisements. What type of retail product is doing well in your area? • Centers in prime locations remain relatively well occupied compared to areas that have been harder hit by the softening economy. Even though the spending power of shoppers is less due to the economic downturn, Miami-Dade County is very dense and there are too many people shopping for there to be mass vacancies. Dollar stores are still in expansion mode, as are some restaurant chains, Applebee’s and …
Douglas K. Mandel is associate vice president investments director, National Office and Industrial Properties Group, in Marcus & Millichap’s Fort Lauderdale, Florida office. What area is your expertise? • South Florida (Miami, Fort Lauderdale, West Palm Beach) office properties What trends do you see presently in office development in your area? • The development pipeline for new office development has slowed dramatically, largely attributed to the lack of debt for new construction. There is demand for LEED-certified office development and some projects are underway or are about to be under construction. Who are the active office developers in your area? • Stiles Corporation, Proccaci Development Company and Butters Construction & Development are three active office developers in South Florida. Please name one or two significant office developments in your area. • A joint venture between Related Companies and Croker Partners has just completed CityPlace Tower, an 18-story Class A office building in downtown West Palm Beach. The building, which includes 300,000 square feet of office is located at the south entrance to CityPlace, a 72-acre mixed-use complex with retail, restaurants and entertainment venues. Stiles Corporation has just completed 200 Las Olas Circle, a 17-story Class A office building in downtown …
Greg Zeifman is a senior associate in Marcus & Millichap’s Miami office. What area is your expertise? • Miami-Dade County Industrial Properties What trends do you see presently in industrial development in your area? • I do not foresee any new starts in the Miami-Dade industrial market. Although developers will finish projects that have already begun, there will be no new significant development. The recent addition of institutional, big-box product in the northwest Miami-Dade Medley submarket will lease-up its vacant space. What type of industrial product is doing well in your area? • Newer, Class A and B product continues to do well. However, owners must keep rents stable or lower them. Small to mid-range tenants who previously occupied Class C or functionally obsolete properties now have renegotiating power and are able to move to nicer locations. Properties in close proximity to the airport will enjoy higher occupancy rates; whereas, properties in the east Miami-Dade market, such as Hialeah, where product tends to be functionally obsolete, will experience the highest vacancies. Who are the active industrial developers in your area? • Flagler Development Group is an active developer in the Dade market. Please name one or two significant industrial developments …
While St. Louis has a diversified economy, it has not been immune from the forces reshaping the retail landscape. As the economy contracts and consumer confidence continues to dip, retailers are reeling from the impact. Circuit City was the latest fatality when its 567 stores went dark in early March, including seven sites in the St. Louis area. Colliers Turley Martin Tucker expects that 2009 will best be remembered as a year of significant closures and consolidations among retailers. Despite the current uncertainty in the marketplace, there were several retail developments completed last year, all of which were primarily committed to well before the economy began taking its toll. St. Louis ended 2008 with more than 1.5 million square feet of new retail space. The majority of these new developments are anchored by retailers selling necessity or discount items such as Costco, Wal-Mart, grocery stores and drug stores. Such a tenant base, combined with consumers now taking a more cost-conscious approach to spending, should allow these developments to do well despite the current economic turmoil. Among these new developments is the new 260,000-square-foot Meadows at Lake Saint Louis in Lake St. Louis, Missouri. Billed as the first lifestyle center in …
The Indianapolis industrial market posted a strong showing last year despite the economic challenges impacting the nation. More than 4.3 million square feet of space was absorbed in 2008, and the region’s industrial vacancy rate closed at 7.4 percent, a decrease of 1.1 percent from the start of the year. Several factors contributed to the area’s ability to move forward, not the least of which is the area’s long-standing stature as the Midwest’s crossroads for distribution. Construction continued, but on a more restrained level. Approximately 1.9 million square feet of new industrial space was completed last year, which is only a quarter of the volume — 8.8 million square feet — of new space added in 2007. A significant component of this new inventory was build-to-suit or expansions by existing owners or users. Additionally, rental rates for industrial space remained level; rents have not moved in either direction since 2007. The rates have remained low compared to other Midwest cities, which has attracted new regional and national players while encouraging local businesses to maintain and renew their existing leases. As in past years, modern bulk distribution space has led the charge of new activity. Approximately 4.3 million square feet of …
Odds are that Las Vegas developers, landlords and brokers did not mind putting 2008 in the rear-view mirror. Unfortunately, odds are also good that 2009 will be even more challenging. Commercial real estate certainly finds itself in unprecedented times. At the end of 2008, the Las Vegas office market had about 5.5 million square feet of vacant space, with the vacancy rate rising to 17.24 percent. This number doesn’t include the increasing amount of sublease space on the market or what is even harder to track, shadow space — unused space not being marketed. Even with the amount of vacant space on the market, there is roughly 2.2 million square feet under construction, most of which will hit the market in 2009. Based on historical absorption averages, the estimated supply of existing vacant space now would take about 5 years to absorb. The average asking lease rate ended 2008 at $2.40 per square foot, but is expected to decrease during first quarter 2009. Landlords have tried to maintain their face rates, but will generally bend significantly to make a deal. Available shell space on the market has more leasing challenges than second-generation space. With the cost of construction exceeding the …