Market Reports

Memphis Multifamily Outlook: Prepare Your War Chest

by John Nelson August 21, 2023

It’s no secret: The multifamily real estate market in Memphis has experienced a significant decline in investment sales volume and total transactions over the past year. But with signs of life coming quickly on the horizon, how can you be ready to capitalize? According to CoStar Analytics, the 58.7 percent sales volume decline in Memphis is in line with the national average, but we have seen a larger dip in total transactions. The steep and rapid decline is directly correlated to the Federal Reserve’s ongoing battle of taming inflation. The Fed has increased the benchmark federal funds rate at 10 consecutive meetings. And while there was a pause at the June meeting, more rate hikes are expected this year. What does this mean for investors and operators? The cream will rise to the top. Some investors may default on loans due to floating-rate debt and the rapid rate increases, while others may struggle to refinance or sell without incurring losses as their cheaper rate caps expire. However, those that have executed their business plans effectively and added value to their apartment complexes by raising rents can expect some cushion. Another interesting factor to examine is the vacancy rate, which has …

August 21, 2023

Market Reports Office Oregon Western Western Market Reports

Portland Office Market Looks to Reclaim its Vibrancy

by Jeff Shaw August 18, 2023

— By Samuel Hatcher, Field Research Manager, CBRE — Portland’s historically vibrant office market finds itself at a crossroads, striving to regain its footing in the wake of economic headwinds. The city’s unique blend of natural beauty, progressive culture and thriving tech scene has been a magnet for young professionals seeking an exceptional quality of life. However, recent shifting market dynamics have cast a shadow of uncertainty, compelling stakeholders to navigate a path to recovery with adaptability and resilience. Portland’s overall office market vacancy is currently 22 percent across the metro area. Downtown vacancy — which includes the Central Eastside, Northwest Close-in and Lloyd District — is at about 28 percent. Of that vacant space, 3.3 million square feet is Class A. Moreover, sublease availability across the overall office market is up 67 percent year over year and investment remains paused. Capital is waiting on the sidelines due to elevated interest rates and generally tighter financial conditions. Despite these stats, the market is showing some bright spots. The rate at which newly available sublease space is being put on the market has slowed compared to when this narrative was dominating headlines. There’s even a chance of a slight quarter-over-quarter decrease …

August 18, 2023

Illinois Industrial Lee & Associates Market Reports Midwest Midwest Market Reports

New Construction Deliveries Bring Chicago’s Industrial Market Down from the Clouds

by Kristin Harlow August 17, 2023

By John Cassidy and Calvin Gunn, Lee & Associates If you love a good groundbreaking photo — full of shiny shovels, hard hats and smiling development teams — you may be disappointed this year, for all the best reasons. With Chicago’s most recent wave of speculative industrial projects currently being delivered, the market now actually has space to offer industrial tenants — a refreshing change from the past few years. With construction costs and interest rates continuing to rise and credit availability shrinking, many developers with ties to Chicago are pausing new projects as exit cap rates are becoming more difficult to predict. At the same time, market fundamentals are starting to cool from the pandemic-era eruption of demand. The good news: Chicago’s industrial market may be down from the clouds, but it’s still historically quite healthy. Vacancy rate in perspective According to Lee & Associates of Illinois’ second-quarter industrial snapshot, construction deliveries caused the Chicago industrial vacancy rate to tick upward for the second consecutive quarter. However, a 3.68 percent vacant market is still considered a historically low vacancy environment. As a comparison, that vacancy rate measured about 12 percent at the end of 2009 and 6.6 percent in …

August 17, 2023

California Market Reports Retail Western Western Market Reports

Investor Demand Continues for Orange County Retail

by Jeff Shaw August 15, 2023

— By Gleb Lvovich, Managing Director, and Daniel Tyner, Senior Director, JLL Capital Markets — The commercial real estate market across all asset classes has seen a slowdown in transaction activity in 2023 compared to 2022 and 2021 largely due to the rapid increase in borrowing costs for investors. This might have impacted the commercial real estate sector as a whole, but shopping centers in Orange County are still buzzing with consumers as occupancy remains robust. Orange County has continuously proved to be one of the most sought-after markets to invest in retail due to its strong demographics, population growth and overall fundamentals. Investor Demand Shopping center performance in Orange County has been excellent over the past few years, and investors see this trend continuing for the foreseeable future. Low vacancy and strong tenant demand has allowed investors to experience significant rent growth at their properties. Orange County has experienced particularly strong grocer performance and expansion. Historically, shopping center transactions have been very limited in Orange County. This has further driven investor demand due to the lack of available investment opportunities. The few listings that exist generate significant interest. Recent examples include the sale of Ralph’s- and Rite Aid-anchored Brea …

August 15, 2023

Market Reports Restaurant Retail Southeast Southeast Market Reports Tennessee

Memphis Retail Market Shows Grit With Several Developments in the Works

by John Nelson August 14, 2023

The term “grit” has become synonymous with Memphis. The commercial real estate landscape continues to receive headwinds from interest rates, high inflation, construction prices and geopolitical tensions, but Memphis continues to show grit in the face of these obstacles. Memphis presents a compelling opportunity for retailers seeking expansion. With a low vacancy rate of just 3.5 percent and strong occupancy levels, the city’s retail market is flourishing. The annual rent growth of 3.7 percent aligns with the national average, indicating a stable and promising environment for businesses. Moreover, Memphis offers competitive pricing for retail spaces, with affordable rates and attractive cap rates that surpass those of neighboring markets. This appealing pricing structure, coupled with a surge in transaction activity, has revitalized the market, providing increased liquidity and investment opportunities. The Regional Megasite of West Tennessee is witnessing a remarkable undertaking from Ford Motor Co. in its newly forged partnership with South Korean battery company SK Innovation. The ambitious Blue Oval City project is well underway. Currently valued at $5.6 billion and sprawling across 3,600 acres, the project is expected to generate nearly 6,000 job opportunities with another 30,000 ancillary jobs in the surrounding communities. Anticipated spillover effects from this venture …

August 14, 2023

Industrial Market Reports Oregon Western Western Market Reports

Portland Industrial Poised for Growth, Despite Rising Subleases

by Jeff Shaw August 11, 2023

— By Keegan Clay, Executive Director, Cushman & Wakefield — The Portland metro industrial market is well poised for investment and rent growth into 2024, despite an increase in sublease space coming to market. Portland has experienced many great trends, particularly in the past few years, including year-over-year double-digit rent growth, compressed cap rates, positive net absorption (occupancy growth), strong tenant demand, all-time low vacancy at 2.5 percent and land prices tripling in a short timespan. Such movement has led to increased competition and investment in the Portland region. We have seen an increase in sublease space hitting the market over the past five months to the tune of more than 2 million square feet. The majority of this relinquished space has stemmed from just a few users. Many of these subleases are a result of acquisitions with companies looking to increase efficiencies by eliminating redundancies. Some industrial users have consolidated out of market, including a major home goods business (648,000 square feet), while others have grown their real estate position in Portland. This includes a leading B2B electrical and industrial distribution company (293,000 square feet). Year to date, we have yet to see any of the larger …

August 11, 2023

Market Reports Midwest Midwest Market Reports Multifamily Ohio

Driven by Multifamily Construction Boom, Cleveland Is No Longer a Secondary Market

by Kristin Harlow August 10, 2023

By Jamie Dunford, CBRE Outside of office product, Cleveland and Northeast Ohio haven’t historically been of interest for most out-of-town multifamily developers and investors. They viewed the region as a tertiary or secondary market with a declining population and a lackluster economy. Until recently, urban living in the central business district (CBD) and surrounding neighborhoods was rare — Cleveland was a commuter city with a strong office market from the 90s until the Great Financial Crisis (GFC) in 2008. At one point in time, Northeast Ohio boasted one of the highest concentrations of Fortune 500 companies with headquarters or other office space in the region, and the CBD had the largest job hub in the state of Ohio. Most office buildings in the CBD were owned by institutional capital or national developers. However, the GFC vastly altered this landscape as unemployment rose, companies left or downsized, and many office assets went back to the lender. This left an oversupply of office product in the market, and the older buildings suffered the most. However, this created a market opportunity that Cleveland developers seized, and the city eventually became a national leader in converting historic office assets to multifamily while taking advantage …

August 10, 2023

Market Reports Retail Texas Texas Market Reports

How Retail Became Texas’ Strongest Commercial Real Estate Category

by Taylor Williams August 9, 2023

By Herb Weitzman, executive chairman, Weitzman The major Texas metro areas of Austin, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston and San Antonio all share one thing in common: Their retail markets are posting balances of supply and demand that outpace every other major commercial real estate category. This milestone was not achieved without overcoming significant obstacles. The major Texas retail markets have survived decades of back-to-back challenges, including major market disruptors like e-commerce, the 2008 Financial Crisis that knocked out several major chains and 2020’s pandemic-induced shutdowns. Each of these significant disruptions and challenges first resulted in store closings and higher vacancy rates. But retail operators as well as commercial brokers and landlords all learned from the setbacks by embracing the lessons of these disruptions to understand how to creatively bounce back stronger. As a result of the market’s careful pivoting, the retail markets in Texas’ major metros have right-sized and are reporting a yearslong trend of balance in supply and demand. To illustrate this point, we used the mid-year reports from CoStar Group on the non-retail CRE types. We compared retail vacancy rates in the four Texas markets to CoStar’s mid-year rates for the industrial, office and multifamily spaces in each of …

August 9, 2023

California Market Reports Office Western Western Market Reports

Orange County’s Office Market Sees Stabilization Signs

by Jeff Shaw August 8, 2023

— By Brian C. Childs, Executive Managing Director, NAI Capital Commercial — Orange County office has historically been last in and first out of any recession or economic setback. That trend continues as an office recovery is in sight in this post-COVID marketplace. The challenge of encouraging workers to return to the office post-pandemic has slowed considerably. The rate of space being vacated in Orange County’s office market slowed to less than a 1 percent increase quarter over quarter in vacant space in the second quarter of 2023. This is compared to the 17 percent year-over-year rise, resulting in a total of 20.9 million square feet of vacant office space. Similarly, the growth rate of available sublease space also experienced a slower pace of 0.2 percent quarter over quarter, compared to a 23.4 percent year-over-year increase, reaching 4.6 million square feet. The second-quarter office vacancy rate sits at 13.3 percent, versus 13.2 percent in the first quarter. Overall office vacancy was at 11.5 percent a year ago. As the availability of office space has begun to stabilize, the average asking rent remained unchanged compared to the previous quarter. There was a minor decline of …

August 8, 2023

Florida Market Reports Restaurant Retail Southeast Southeast Market Reports

Six Trends to Watch for Central Florida’s Growing, Evolving Retail Market

by John Nelson August 7, 2023

Central Florida retail is alive, well and growing, thanks in large part to Florida’s continuing resilience to the nation’s economic challenges. Thousands of people are moving to the state each week, the Orlando area’s economy continues to diversify beyond tourism and residents continue to show confidence with their retail spending. That said, there are significant challenges facing new retail developments, due to the cost of construction and other inflationary pressures. We expect this to be a major issue for the rest of this year, and it will require thoughtful planning for everyone involved in these projects. As we look at the remainder of 2023, we see two big takeaways: • For brick-and-mortar retail, it’s important for developers and owners to bring in concepts that are new and fresh. In some cases, this involves established retailers getting creative with their spaces, like what Macy’s is doing with its new Market by Macy’s concept, which uses a smaller footprint than traditional Macy’s stores. • To make new retail developments happen, developers, landlords and tenants need to be inventive in how they structure deals, whether it’s sharing in construction cost overages or giving tenants more time to get their spaces ready. With that …

August 7, 2023

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