— By Daniel Natsch, Senior Managing Director and Partner, Ethos Commercial Advisors — Portland made it onto the national scene even before the last economic cycle. It’s a charming and relatively inexpensive West Coast market that boasts a great culinary scene, never-ending outdoor activities and its own sense of weirdness. It’s no wonder that Portland’s ticket to the “big time” came by way of population growth throughout the 2010s, spurred by young, highly educated professionals. Alongside that growth came the need for more housing. Institutional capital took note and began targeting Portland for investment. The development boom of the 2010s eventually began to slow. Portland’s multifamily industry took another blow when Inclusionary Zoning legislation was passed. To beat affordable requirements, developers grandfathered as many projects as possible, creating a huge wave of entitled properties. Many of these projects would see their way through permitting, and the pre-inclusionary housing moniker became more valuable to investors. At the time, it appeared that significant in-migration would offset the significant deliveries stacking up in the pipeline. Then came 2020. Downtown Portland became a ghost town as employees stayed home amid the pandemic. It was quiet until large crowds took to the streets to speak …
Market Reports
By Scott Olson, Skogman Commercial Despite a derecho, a pandemic, inflation, supply chain issues and a possible recession, Cedar Rapids continues its rapid growth as evidenced by the ranking by “American Growth Project 2023” as a top 15 fastest-growing mid-size U.S. city. But, its other national rankings are just as impressive: • 23rd-Best Run City in U.S. (wallethub.com, 2023) • Top 100 Best Places to Live in America (Livability, 2023) • 23rd-Best Place to Raise a Family (wallethub.com, 2023) • 13th-Best City to Buy a House (niche.com, 2023) • Ranked No. 21 of Cities with Lowest Cost of Living (Business Insider, 2023) • A Cleanest U.S. City by Short-Term Particle Pollution (American Lung Association, 2023) • Two Nationally Ranked Medical Centers: St. Luke’s Hospital and Mercy Medical Center (PINC Al/Fortune and Newsweek, 2023) • Top 50 Best City for Jobs in America (wallethub.com, 2023) • No. 22 Safest City in America (wallethub.com, 2022) • Best Tasting Drinking Water in Iowa (Iowa Section, American Water Works 2022) In addition to these rankings, Cedar Rapids is also continuing to make major progress on recovery from previous national disasters: • 2008/2016 historic floods are resulting in the $750 million flood control system making …
By Taylor Williams For the past several years, including during the height of the pandemic, the Boston retail market has performed well, if unspectacularly. Defined and driven by stable fundamentals in terms of job growth and tenant demand, the state capital’s retail sector has proven itself a reliable environment in which to expand store counts and park long-term money. But few, if any commercial markets and asset classes are wholly immune to the effects of sluggish and disruptive macroeconomic activity. Through no fault of its own, the Boston retail market is seeing its paces of growth slow across the key verticals that are development, leasing and investment sales. That said, seasoned players in this space know better than to panic. Boston remains a dynamic market, despite data from the U.S. Census Bureau showing that the city’s total population shrunk by about 25,000 people, or 3.7 percent, between April 2020 and April 2022. In addition, even in an inflationary economy, Boston consumers tend to retain healthy disposable income levels. A burgeoning life sciences sector that is bringing thousands of well-paying jobs to the city and a steady flow of students and young professionals across its 25-plus colleges and universities lie at …
— By Robert Gallegos, Senior Vice President, The Mogharebi Group — New Mexico is rapidly becoming an important multifamily market for both investors and developers as the state experiences explosive job and population growth, which is expected to continue on an upward trajectory over the next five to 10 years. While Albuquerque remains the most targeted multifamily market in the state, it is worth noting that the tertiary market of Santa Teresa — near El Paso and the Mexico border — is becoming a hotbed for multifamily investment. Santa Teresa is a key inland port serving as a strategic focal point for intermodal shipments in the Southwestern U.S., with more than 6 million square feet of industrial space in use and nearly 1 million square feet under construction. As more jobs flood into New Mexico, the demand for quality rental housing will continue to far outstrip supply. With a population of more than half a million people and counting, it is no wonder Albuquerque is seeing the bulk of investment activity. The city has drawn an influx of new residents thanks to its diverse economy, relatively affordable cost of living and quality of life. According to Numbeo, one of the largest cost-of-living …
In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, Charlotte’s retail segment has experienced a remarkable revitalization, fueled by a convergence of factors that have reinvigorated the city’s economic landscape. With a thriving job market, affordable cost of living and a surge in adaptive reuse, mixed-use and infill projects, Charlotte has become a hotbed for retail activity. As the city emerges from the challenges of the pandemic, it has embraced innovative approaches to urban development, transforming once-vacant spaces into vibrant hubs of commerce. Several macro-economic trends have impacted retail growth in Charlotte. Population growth in the city has spurred an increase in consumer demand, leading to a vibrant retail market. In a May 18 article from the Charlotte Business Journal, it was noted Charlotte added more than 15,000 people to its population count between 2021 and 2022, the nation’s fifth-highest numeric increase during that span, according to the latest estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau. As more people choose to settle in Charlotte, the demand for goods and services has risen, prompting retailers and restaurants to expand their operations and invest in new locations. Additionally, the rise of e-commerce and the shift toward online shopping have compelled retailers in Charlotte to adapt …
— By Jerry Holdner, Avison Young — Southern California Region Lead, Innovation & Insight, AVANT — The San Diego office market is starting to show signs of weakness. Unemployment remains low, but it is important to highlight that job creation has been uneven. The bright spot is that high-value-added jobs in a broad range of sectors, such as scientific research, medical products and pharmaceutical development continue to grow, which bodes well for San Diego. We are still uncertain about a recession. It could be short and shallow like many are predicting, or we could be in for a period of monumental headwinds. Investment sales have retreated as interest rates increased, and office workers have been reluctant to return to the office. This has created an uncertain picture of our office market going forward. The rise and future uncertainty of the pace of inflation has caused many to take a “pencils down” approach. This has caused many to slow, pause or even halt their dealmaking, growth, capital investment and development efforts as the ability to borrow funds has become difficult. San Diego’s office vacancy currently stands at 12.3 percent, and 18.9 percent of the total office market is available (including sublease …
By Ron Gilbreath, managing director of asset & property management, Westmount Realty Capital It’s no trade secret that global lockdowns during the pandemic had a significant and lasting impact on supply chains worldwide. EY’s 2023 poll revealed that 72 percent of senior-level supply chain executives experienced negative impacts on their businesses due to the pandemic, resulting in the emergence of a concentrated focus on supply chain visibility. The crucial point to acknowledge during this continued disruption is that these impacts are closely tied to the just-in-time (JIT) inventory management system. As a result of these challenges, businesses are actively reassessing their distribution network strategies, leading to a surge in demand for industrial warehouse space. With the necessity to maintain greater inventory levels, companies are re-evaluating their warehouse space requirements and distribution setups to mitigate the risk of future supply shortages. The lockdowns disrupted two essential elements of JIT strategy: steady production and supplier reliability. Suppliers forced to comply with government lockdowns incurred major disruptions across various business lines due to the challenge of maintaining consistent production. This is a key component of JIT delivery that relies on having materials physically present during the production process. When these materials are unavailable, …
— By Anthony Johnson, AJ Johnson and Chris Fiello, Pegasus Group — New Mexico is no different than the rest of the nation and is not immune to some of the same symptoms that are taxing the national retail market. However, New Mexico retail is also showing signs of resilience as it reshapes itself and finds ways to weather the storms of high interest rates, major brand closures, economic uncertainty and crime. As of now, the big issue is in the theft and resale of retail goods. Indeed, the problem of brazen theft — which is seen in countless cites in the nation — has led New Mexico Gov. Lujan Grisham to announce the revival of the Governor’s Organized Crime Prevention Commission. The hopes are to crackdown on this behavior, which is having a detrimental impact on the bottom line for New Mexico businesses, especially small ones. This onslaught of petty shoplifting to organized sprees of large-scale theft has caused retailers large and small to exit locations. Target, for example, announced in May that it was preparing for a loss of half a billion dollars this year because of rising theft. In 2023, New Mexico saw multiple store closures, including several …
When reflecting on Charlotte’s multifamily market over the past few years, several major trends drove unprecedented transaction volume — record-level rent growth, positive absorption despite a consistently robust pipeline of deliveries, strong population growth from high in-migration and rapidly increasing homeownership costs pricing residents out of the market. Charlotte has been a popular relocation destination for individuals and families, particularly from the Northeast, Midwest and other parts of the Southeast who are drawn to the low cost of living, warm climate and strong economy. Zillow ranks Charlotte as the No. 1 housing market for 2023, signaling a continued rise in home values and subsequent increased demand for rental housing from the growing population. In-migration has made Charlotte experience explosive growth and bolstered the population to over 2.7 million residents by year-end 2022, a 5.6 percent increase since 2018 compared to the national rate of 1.3 percent. Equally impressive is regional job growth, with non-farm payrolls increasing 7.9 percent over the same time frame. Much of Charlotte’s multifamily growth is attributed to capital investment from new employers across the metro, including Albemarle Corp.’s $180 million investment into a new research campus in University City bringing 200 new jobs, as well as …
— By Chad O’Connor, Executive Managing Director, Capital Markets, Marcus & Millichap Capital Corp. — Financing continues to be challenging for multifamily, whether in San Diego County or elsewhere. We have noticed a general shift in the market where the usual players are moving to the sidelines, thereby allowing new developers to enter the field. Many of the new developers do not have a track record that encourages a lender to underwrite a transaction. The more seasoned developers are focused on smaller developments with a higher probability of securing financing. The redirection to smaller developers in San Diego has directly impacted the institutional market. Despite this, we are still financing a lot of deals and capital is, indeed, available. Having proprietary programs in the market — especially on the bridge side of things — continues to keep us both busy and adding value for our clients. The lack of go-to lenders in the market is driving us to forge new relationships with growing lenders, building those connections, and paving way for future opportunities. Timing is a crucial variable when securing financing. Locking in the most favorable interest rates and moving swiftly through the closing process is very important in dynamic …