New Orleans has seen significant, pent-up retail growth over the past 12 months as we emerge from the COVID-19 pandemic. More recently, however, external forces have provided some headwinds and caused tenants and investors to go back to their corners to reassess. Inflation, rising interest rates, insurance premium increases and elevated construction costs have all contributed to uncertainty in the Greater New Orleans retail landscape. Within the French Quarter and CBD, growing concerns from crime have forced some CEOs to look outside of the city core for their office headquarters. This issue, coupled with the current “work-from-home” environment, causes downtown retailers to rely even more on tourism and convention business. Thankfully, the hospitality sector has had success and is now exceeding pre-pandemic levels. Due to an active 2021 hurricane season that saw Hurricane Ida devastate South Louisiana, insurance rates have skyrocketed as carriers continue to leave the state. As a result, landlords have struggled with how to handle these unforeseen spikes in expenses. Should they pass those on to the tenant or eat them to remain competitive, or a combination of the two? 2022 has been a surprisingly quiet storm season, so with any luck these rates should begin to …
Market Reports
Like many communities across the West, affordable housing is a top issue in Denver. Monthly rent in Denver is now around $2,005, according to Zillow’s June 2022 data. This is up 20.4 percent since June 2019. The city is trying to do something about the lack of affordability. It approved the Expanding Housing Affordability Policy (EHA) this June, which overhauled Denver’s affordable housing requirements for new development. EHA was allowed after the 2021 passage of a Colorado statute, HB21-1117, which overturned a Colorado Supreme Court case commonly known as the Telluride decision. HB21-1117 expanded the ability of local Colorado governments to require inclusion of income-restricted units within new rental housing — something that had previously been prohibited in Colorado. While Denver has led within the state with EHA, other municipalities in Colorado, such as Littleton and Aspen, are beginning to consider new affordable housing policies in response to HB21-1117. In Denver, EHA primarily affects multifamily projects of 10 or more units. Those projects must proceed under EHA unless they submitted a concept site plan by June 30, 2022, and achieve final site development plan approval by Aug. 30, 2023. Non-residential projects and residential projects of nine or fewer units may …
By Chip Colvill, executive vice president, Cushman & Wakefield Like many U.S. cities in the post-pandemic world, Houston’s office sector faces a long road to recovery. Historically, office demand follows office job creation — and job growth has been a bright spot of the Houston economy in 2022. Unfortunately, the U.S. economy seems to be slowing, and the outlook remains highly uncertain. Odds of a recession have risen; inflation and wage pressures remain elevated, and higher interest rates are impacting various parts of the economy, including commercial real estate. Throughout the United States as well as in Houston, the correlation between job growth and office demand is tenuous, given that many businesses are still recalibrating workplace strategies to allow remote and hybrid work schedules. However, new jobs — even more flexible, hybrid jobs — will necessitate various types of workspaces, including demand for office and flexible office space. Newer office buildings across Houston have thrived despite the market’s elevated Class A vacancy rate of approximately 26 percent. Each new quarter of data continues to confirm the flight-to-quality trend and the existence of a bifurcated office sector between older and newer office product. Higher-quality and newer office space is dominating as …
In the post-pandemic environment where employers are trying to navigate new work schedules, office tenants are focusing more on the finish and design of office space than they are the rents. In New Orleans, we are seeing office tenants rethink the concept of office space altogether, and their employees are thinking differently about their individual offices as well. There has been a shift from the traditional office space of years past where one spends eight hours a day in a large private office with the door closed. The office has evolved into more of a social place. Companies want their employees to come back to the office and not to be fully remote. Many employees want to get out of their pajamas and come back to the office. But, getting them all to come back has proven to be the challenge. Companies are now enticing their employees with redesigned spaces that are more aesthetically pleasing and rich with amenities that allow for more social interactions and collaboration. Employees who work remotely a few days a week are coming to the office because they want that engagement with their colleagues. Tenants are now less interested in refurbishing private offices and spend …
By Brian O’Connor, Executive Director, Valuation & Advisory, Cushman & Wakefield The Seattle Metro apartment market has been surprisingly resilient. The market quickly bounced back from the COVID downturn at a robust clip and has continued moving at a healthy pace. During the first six months of 2022, metro Seattle absorbed more than 12,600 units. That already surpasses a typical full year of demand by several thousand units. From January 2022 through June, the market absorbed 3,779 newly constructed units — a respectable level. If you also factor in the decline in existing units, then the market absorbed another 8,886 units. That tells us that the supply of new units was too low…or demand was much stronger than we expected. The market had rebounded to a metro-wide vacancy rate of only 1.33 percent at mid-year 2022, an astoundingly low level. From year-end 2021 to June 2022, overall apartment vacancies declined from 3 percent to 1.33 percent. We do, however, expect vacancies to begin increasing slightly. These rates typically see an uptick as we head into winter. Rent growth also slows during this time. We expect to see the metro-wide vacancy rate start to rise just a bit by year-end 2022, to …
By David Hodge, NAI Greywolf The demand for commercial industrial real estate was exceedingly strong in the Milwaukee market leading up to the onset of COVID-19. The economy and labor markets were also strong and incentives for onshoring spurred on this growth. Post-pandemic commercial industrial product continues its upward trend. The catalyst for this, however, is international supply chain disruptions. The reaction to this unfortunate circumstance is the accumulation of higher inventories of raw material and finished goods. The resulting impact is high demand, especially for warehouses, in an extremely low vacancy rate environment. Demand beating inventory According to Catylist, in the second quarter of 2022, the Milwaukee market’s vacancy rates were 3.3 percent for all commercial industrial products. This is largely due to the continued lack of available inventory. High demand in part has spurred increases in rental rates to approximately $5.98 per square foot triple net. While this is good news for landlords who look to capitalize, it presents challenges for tenants who are expanding their operations. The other factor driving rental rates is the rapid increase in interest rates. The upcoming election may also affect the rates in the later part of the fourth quarter of …
By Tom Georges, investment sales broker, Northmarq The U.S. economy reported annualized growth of 2.6 percent in gross domestic product (GDP) in the third quarter, thereby avoiding a third consecutive quarter of negative growth. This positive news can be easily tempered by the fact that the growth was greatly affected by trade and inventory numbers, which were skewed as a result of world events like the war in Ukraine. But the news of growth was welcomed in an economy that has been starved for something positive for most of the year. Compounding the economic caution in the absence of sustained economic growth, of course, is the strain that inflation has inflicted on all Americans. In response to 40-year inflationary highs, the Federal Reserve has been forced to react with its primary inflation-countering tool: increasing interest rates. In early November, the Fed raised short-term rates to their highest level since January 2008. Additional rate hikes are anticipated in December, although signals suggest we’ll see increases in smaller increments going forward. Still, amid all the turmoil and uncertainty, several quick service restaurant (QSR) operators continue to roll out expansion plans and report better-than-expected sales and earnings. Restaurant Brands International (NYSE: QSR) recently …
By David Gagliano, Senior Vice President and Principal, Fuller Real Estate Leasing trends in the metro Denver office market are continuing their slow progression downward. Inquiries from tenants looking to lease office product is down 10 percent from 2021. Concurrently, we have seen an uptick in smaller office users who are looking for space in lieu of their home office. Landlords have been quick to concede to tenants, incentivizing them with extensive quantifiable tenant improvements and lease rates lower than their competition. Anecdotally, it becomes obvious with nearly every prospective tenant that they are viewing multiple properties. Not only are they viewing several properties, but many have several options within the exact vicinity of the subject property. This trend makes it even more critical for landlords to have the best representation from their brokers. This market instability also speaks to the favor landlords are giving to current tenants upon lease renewal, as capturing occupancy prior to vacating becomes vital. With current and most likely future increases in interest rates, we will see a dip in activity in owner-user purchases that should lead to a rise in leasing activity. The suburban markets are still seeing a surge in migration from the downtown …
By Jeff Karger, JLL There’s no doubt that the office market today is much different than what it was five years ago. Employers across the nation have had to adjust their work models, time and time again, to meet the needs of their employees — and those in Grand Rapids are no exception. As landlords, employers and employees adapt to these changes, it’s important to understand the direction of the office market. Below, check out five factors that are defining it. 1. A flight to quality Like many other cities across the nation, Grand Rapids is experiencing a resounding flight to quality. Employers are seeking Class A and trophy spaces to appeal to their employees and offer them an experience, rather than just a cubicle to work in. Some of these office features can include free fitness centers, onsite cafés, coffee shops and restaurants, outdoor terraces and more. Plus, according to JLL research, 59 percent of employees expect to work at a company that supports their health and well-being. Interestingly enough, employees prioritize this over salary — a key reason why companies and landlords alike are investing in amenitized spaces with up-to-date HVAC systems, exercise classes and healthy food options. …
By Dino A. Christophilis, Senior Vice President, CBRE; Daniel Tibeau, Associate, CBRE; and Parker Ksidakis, Associate, CBRE Few sectors were as disrupted by the pandemic as retail. While 2020 proved to be a tumultuous year, the last year and a half have demonstrated the resiliency of retail — both in Seattle and nationally. The Seattle economy is performing well for a recovering retail sector, with continued employment growth and increasing retail spending. The Puget Sound is notorious for its lack of new retail development, and the recent years have been no exception. The environment of increasing demand with a flat level of supply results in positive conditions for existing retail space. Like much of the nation, concerns persist in Seattle around inflation, increasing debt costs and a potential slowing in the global economy. However, the situation in Seattle is more positive and nuanced. Growing Investment Activity Year to date, Seattle is poised to outperform the prior year in terms of total investment dollars. The second quarter of 2022 experienced 65 percent greater investment volume relative to the same quarter in 2021. This figure is particularly notable as 2021 was an exceptional year. Investors deployed pent-up capital that was held during the height of the pandemic. Total retail …